ABCEFGHIJOPQRSTUVWXYZAA
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Aggregated Crosstab Averages by Subgroup
Qualifying National Polls (Oct 16-Nov 4, 2024)
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Demographic# of pollsHarrisTrumpAggregated Polling Lead (Oct 16-Nov 4)Catalist Post-Election EstimatePolling Miss
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GenderMen1744%52%Trump +8Trump +16D+8.0
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Women1754%43%Harris +10.9Harris +10D+0.9
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Race/EthnicityWhite1643%54%Trump +10.6Trump +15D+4.4
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Black1680%16%Harris +64.5Harris +70R+5.5
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Hispanic1656%40%Harris +16.1Harris +8D+8.1
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Race x EducWhite College655%43%Harris +12Harris +2D+10.0
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White Non-College636%62%Trump +26.8Trump +27D+0.2
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Age GroupAge 18-29956%38%Harris +18.6Harris +10D+8.6
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Age 30-44653%41%Harris +11.7Harris +4D+7.7
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Age 45-64646%50%Trump +4.2Trump +8D+3.8
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Age 65+1247%50%Trump +2.9Trump +4D+1.1
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EducNon-College Grad844%53%Trump +9.8Trump +10D+0.2
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College Graduate+957%39%Harris +18.6Harris +11D+7.6
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Criteria for poll inclusion: (1) national RV or LV sample; (2) out of field date between October 16 - November 4, 2024; (3) total sample size of n=600 or higher; (4) conducted by either non-partisan affiliated pollsters OR two partisan pollsters (one D-affliated, one R affiliated) collaborating; (5) 2.0 stars or higher in 2024 FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings; and (6) crosstabs must be publicly accessible and free of charge
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Polls included (19): The Economist/YouGov (3.0☆), The Times (UK)/YouGov (3.0☆), Napolitan Institute/RMG Research (2.3☆), New York Times/Siena College (3.0☆), NBC News/POS/Hart (2.6☆), USA Today/Suffolk University (2.9☆), Emerson College (2.9☆), AtlasIntel (2.7☆), CNN/SSRS (2.4☆), ABC News/Ipsos (2.8☆), CBS News/YouGov (3.0☆), CCES/YouGov (3.0☆), Angus Reid Global (2.0☆), CMC-Rose Institute/YouGov (3.0☆), Noble Predictive Insights (2.4☆), Reuters/Ipsos (2.8☆), NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist College (2.9☆), Research Co. (2.4☆), New York Post/Leger (2.0☆)
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Methodological Notes:
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If a poll releases numbers for both RV & LV samples, only the LV numbers are included in the dataset
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If a poll releases numbers for a head-to-head matchup and a 3+ candidate field, the head-to-head matchup is used in dataset
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If a poll releases horse race numbers with and without leaners, only the leaner numbers are included in the dataset
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If a pollster or sponsor/pollster combo releases multiple polls in the same month, only the last one is included in the dataset
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If a pollster releases polls with different sponsors within the same month, they're included as separate entries in the dataset
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Minimum of 6 polls required for a demographic to be included in the above table
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Minimum of n=50 sample size for crosstab data to be included in the dataset
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Not all trends by demographic will add up total because not every poll listed results by every subgroup in the table above
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Pollster ratings (via FiveThirtyEight) are out of 3.0 stars
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