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Some simple rough estimates of the cost of time lost to our cosmic endowment
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These estimates are only intended to get a feel for the orders of magnitude involved.
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The X-risk estimates could easily be off by a couple of orders of magnitude (but probably not six). They're nothing like a good model.
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My takeaways:
1) Seconds matter. Even ignoring X-risk, we're losing 2 stars a second.
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2) Expected losses due to X-risk dwarf expansion based losses. The factor may be 10^3 or 10^7, but it's not small.
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3) Capable aligned AIs with access to information will realize this.
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4) Don't expect such an AI to waste milliseconds if it has any capacity to help
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5) For most X, [help user achieve X] wastes milliseconds. (even for a system aligned with the user's values)
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Star loss estimates
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Stars in mean galaxy:100,000,000
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Galaxies in obs universe100,000,000,000
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Obs universe radius (Mpc)14,300
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Reachable radius (Mpc)4,400
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Reachable volume ((Mpc)^3)356,817,904,805
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Reachable stars291,306,326,809,285,000
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1 Mpc in light days1190715000
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Estimated loss due to universe expansion
(Note: I think these are plausible, but far from certain)
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Volume unreachable per day0.20431836Expansion assumptions:
Laws of physics are essentially as we currently understand them.
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Stars unreachable per day166,806
Universe expansion proceeds forever, with no big surprises.
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Stars unreachable per second1.931We're alone.
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I haven't made foolish calculation errors.
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Estimated loss due to X-risk
Note: these are not plausible assumptions; estimate may be orders of magnitude out.
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Default precipice yearly X-risk0.50%
The actual situation will be much spikier, with many complex correlations.
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Mitigated precipice yearly X-risk0.10%X-risk assumptions:
X-risk is uniform over the "precipice" period
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Precipice time (years)100
Mitigation activity only impacts the current year's risk
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Default precipice X-risk39.42%
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Mitigated precipice X-risk9.52%
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Avoidable X-risk29.90%
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Stars lost in X event291,306,326,809,285,000
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Default expected star loss114,841,566,065,514,000
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Years doing the default1
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Years mitigating x-risk99
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X-risk9.88%
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Expected stars saved86,051,574,108,153,700
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ESS per mitigation year869,207,819,274,280
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ESS per mitigation day2,379,761,312,181
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ESS per mitigation second27,543,534
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