Ramen Retirement: Poor Man's Guide to Market Assessment
 Share
The version of the browser you are using is no longer supported. Please upgrade to a supported browser.Dismiss

View only
 
 
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXY
1
Ramen Retirement: Poor Man's Guide to Market Assessment
2
From Howard Marks: Here’s a simple exercise that might help you take the temperature of future markets. I have listed a number of market characteristics. For each pair, check off the one you think is most descriptive of today. And if you find that most of your checkmarks are in the left-hand column, hold on to your wallet.
3
AttributesMay 2018Aug 2018
4
1 - be cautious5 - be aggressiveRankingRanking
5
EconomyVibrantSluggish21
6
OutlookPositiveNegative23
7
LendersEagerReticent22
8
Capital marketsLooseTight11
9
CapitalPlentifulScarce11
10
TermsEasyRestrictive21
11
Interest ratesLowHigh23
12
SpreadsNarrowWide21
13
InvestorsOptimistic, Sanguine, Eager to buyPessimistic, Distressed, Uninterested in buying21
14
Asset ownersHappy to holdRushing for exits11
15
SellersFewMany11
16
MarketsCrowdedStarved for attention12
17
FundsHard to gain entry, New ones daily, GPs hold all cardsOpen to anyone, Only the best can raise, LPs have bargaining power32
18
Recent performance
StrongWeak21
19
Asset pricesHighLow11
20
Prospective returns
LowHigh22
21
RiskHighLow22
22
Popular qualitiesAggressiveness and broad reach Caution, discipline and selectivity33
23
Total32.0029.00
24
Average1.781.61
25
Percentile19.40%15.30%
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
Loading...
Main menu