2017 VA-GOV Analysis
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2017 Virginia Governor Analysis
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Compiled by Ryan Matsumoto (@ryanmatsumoto1)
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Note: Each benchmark is the margin Northam (D) needs in each county to win overall
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Note: Each benchmark is calculated using a weighted average of Democratic margins in 2012 Presidential (12.5%), 2013 Governor (25%), 2014 Senate (25%), and 2016 Presidential (37.5%)
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Predictorsr^2 values
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2012 Presidential Election
0.906
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75% 2012, 25% 20160.943
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50% 2012, 50% 20160.966
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25% 2012, 75% 20160.979
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2016 Presidential Election
0.983
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2013 Gubernatorial Election
0.939
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2014 Senate Election0.855
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CountyObama MarginClinton MarginMcAuliffe MarginWarner MarginNortham BenchmarkNortham MarginNortham Margin vs. Clinton MarginNortham Margin vs. McAuliffe Margin
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ACCOMACK COUNTY-3.48-11.65-11.81-11.62-13.97-8.063.593.75
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ALBEMARLE COUNTY11.9724.8318.9012.0915.2428.633.809.73
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ALEXANDRIA CITY43.4558.0148.9642.4046.7157.63-0.398.67
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ALLEGHANY COUNTY-2.68-36.97-8.829.05-17.45-32.024.95-23.20
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AMELIA COUNTY-26.62-36.65-29.95-29.77-35.31-38.30-1.65-8.35
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AMHERST COUNTY-19.88-30.28-27.36-24.18-30.04-27.752.53-0.39
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APPOMATTOX COUNTY-36.38-46.09-43.94-38.75-45.81-51.58-5.49-7.63
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ARLINGTON COUNTY39.7959.1949.4143.5447.0960.821.6311.41
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AUGUSTA COUNTY-42.06-49.49-42.71-44.89-49.03-47.452.03-4.74
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BATH COUNTY-17.09-41.94-24.24-12.72-30.42-38.013.93-13.78
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BEDFORD COUNTY-41.68-49.13-46.08-42.19-49.01-48.870.26-2.79
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BLAND COUNTY-47.80-67.54-49.32-41.32-57.27-61.805.73-12.48
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BOTETOURT COUNTY-38.52-47.39-39.26-34.38-44.31-44.442.95-5.18
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BRISTOL CITY-30.94-43.47-30.81-30.23-38.74-41.082.39-10.27
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BRUNSWICK COUNTY25.1918.7124.0122.2718.4215.09-3.62-8.92
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BUCHANAN COUNTY-34.65-60.29-37.41-21.57-45.00-52.557.74-15.14
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BUCKINGHAM COUNTY2.43-11.27-5.98-5.88-10.20-15.51-4.25-9.53
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BUENA VISTA CITY-25.52-30.62-24.02-17.99-28.49-33.90-3.28-9.88
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CAMPBELL COUNTY-39.29-46.80-46.77-40.87-47.68-48.22-1.41-1.45
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CAROLINE COUNTY8.24-4.815.324.78-1.56-0.114.70-5.43
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CARROLL COUNTY-39.10-59.29-36.54-32.92-47.80-54.704.59-18.15
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CHARLES CITY COUNTY32.5124.8428.7230.6324.9025.740.90-2.98
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CHARLOTTE COUNTY-13.70-22.80-19.99-16.79-22.77-28.40-5.60-8.41
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CHARLOTTESVILLE CITY53.5066.4960.1157.7257.7670.714.2210.60
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CHESAPEAKE CITY1.04-1.263.13-0.49-2.997.398.654.25
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CHESTERFIELD COUNTY-7.73-2.25-7.86-8.72-9.270.582.848.44
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CLARKE COUNTY-13.62-19.60-12.11-18.81-20.09-12.607.00-0.49
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COLONIAL HEIGHTS CITY-39.39-39.19-43.24-46.25-45.30-44.95-5.76-1.70
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COVINGTON CITY14.76-18.266.0422.59-1.16-17.810.45-23.85
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CRAIG COUNTY-34.76-57.23-40.87-27.88-46.31-53.503.73-12.63
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CULPEPER COUNTY-16.30-25.16-28.05-31.53-29.68-25.27-0.112.77
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CUMBERLAND COUNTY-2.30-13.47-9.15-8.03-12.95-16.52-3.05-7.38
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DANVILLE CITY22.0319.825.2116.8612.3914.87-4.959.66
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DICKENSON COUNTY-26.08-55.85-27.41-14.25-37.93-43.5212.33-16.11
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DINWIDDIE COUNTY-2.39-12.39-1.70-3.10-9.46-10.232.16-8.53
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EMPORIA CITY33.6431.3125.2625.7825.3912.68-18.63-12.58
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ESSEX COUNTY7.29-2.13-3.40-4.17-5.09-6.26-4.13-2.86
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FAIRFAX CITY16.1330.4716.8111.3517.1730.820.3514.00
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FAIRFAX COUNTY20.4635.8222.2117.5122.6136.720.9014.51
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FALLS CHURCH CITY39.3357.9548.1845.4946.7559.231.2911.05
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FAUQUIER COUNTY-19.87-24.44-24.72-30.24-28.70-20.394.054.33
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FLOYD COUNTY-25.39-37.18-25.07-14.48-30.31-27.729.46-2.65
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FLUVANNA COUNTY-6.16-9.30-5.39-11.02-11.67-6.472.83-1.09
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FRANKLIN CITY30.6726.9822.9723.4522.2421.01-5.97-1.96
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FRANKLIN COUNTY-28.56-41.94-32.19-25.52-37.04-38.363.58-6.17
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FREDERICK COUNTY-27.91-34.99-33.05-36.60-37.33-29.995.003.05
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FREDERICKSBURG CITY26.8026.3121.9719.7320.3330.273.978.30
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GALAX CITY-18.97-38.80-21.25-13.36-28.89-38.450.35-17.21
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GILES COUNTY-25.54-48.22-28.08-23.03-37.36-43.834.39-15.75
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GLOUCESTER COUNTY-27.86-39.21-27.27-29.64-35.72-30.049.17-2.77
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GOOCHLAND COUNTY-28.33-24.90-22.59-25.16-28.13-24.750.15-2.16
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GRAYSON COUNTY-38.38-57.45-34.91-27.59-45.28-53.983.47-19.07
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GREENE COUNTY-25.26-31.44-25.22-30.91-32.30-28.233.21-3.01
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GREENSVILLE COUNTY27.7918.8224.8127.3220.2514.21-4.61-10.60
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HALIFAX COUNTY-5.56-16.51-15.20-5.94-15.48-21.64-5.13-6.45
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HAMPTON CITY42.5837.5438.5438.8435.4344.226.685.69
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HANOVER COUNTY-36.59-32.27-32.34-32.44-36.18-30.182.082.15
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HARRISONBURG CITY13.4021.9511.877.0711.3328.696.7416.82
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HENRICO COUNTY11.7620.8213.2413.1212.5622.791.979.55
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HENRY COUNTY-14.69-29.08-25.61-13.75-25.89-29.53-0.45-3.92
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HIGHLAND COUNTY-32.91-42.20-30.79-26.77-37.64-36.945.26-6.16
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HOPEWELL CITY15.959.310.984.533.551.59-7.720.62
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ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTY-14.60-20.51-14.01-14.54-19.97-14.745.77-0.73
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JAMES CITY COUNTY-12.03-5.10-8.96-10.67-11.64-1.183.927.78
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KING AND QUEEN COUNTY
-3.28-17.07-3.78-2.57-11.71-14.772.3010.66
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KING GEORGE COUNTY-18.77-27.65-25.43-24.88-28.61-24.3110.780.60
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KING WILLIAM COUNTY-23.78-35.09-24.91-26.62-32.33-31.33-14.26-27.55
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LANCASTER COUNTY-8.67-9.84-12.81-14.13-14.82-12.10-2.260.70
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LEE COUNTY-44.43-62.94-48.52-28.56-51.74-59.673.27-11.15
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LEXINGTON CITY12.6430.3428.7731.6224.7433.713.374.95
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LOUDOUN COUNTY4.4916.854.36-0.494.5319.903.0615.54
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LOUISA COUNTY-13.75-24.48-18.44-18.52-23.45-22.641.84-4.20
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LUNENBURG COUNTY-4.96-17.49-9.20-7.76-14.73-18.91-1.42-9.71
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LYNCHBURG CITY-10.58-8.94-13.65-12.08-14.42-4.284.669.37
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MADISON COUNTY-18.59-31.75-20.68-27.97-29.70-26.225.53-5.55
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MANASSAS CITY13.2616.032.241.395.2614.99-1.0412.75
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MANASSAS PARK CITY25.3428.1211.958.7315.5729.060.9517.12
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MARTINSVILLE CITY24.5523.439.2023.3916.6918.69-4.749.49
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MATHEWS COUNTY-31.28-36.79-24.38-27.43-33.97-28.997.80-4.61
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MECKLENBURG COUNTY-6.98-13.40-15.73-14.27-16.71-20.16-6.76-4.43
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MIDDLESEX COUNTY-20.54-25.96-19.30-22.94-26.17-24.701.26-5.40
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MONTGOMERY COUNTY-0.251.312.386.13-0.739.307.996.91
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NELSON COUNTY2.72-5.593.894.10-3.07-0.085.51-3.97
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NEW KENT COUNTY-33.54-37.35-30.67-32.96-37.42-34.872.47-4.21
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Analysis
2017 Southwest Virginia
2017 African American
2012 Presidential
2016 Presidential
2013 Governor
2014 Senate
Predictors - 2012
Predictors - Pres 75 / 25
Predictors - Pres 50 / 50
Predictors - Pres 25 / 75
Predictors - 2016
Predictors - 2013
Predictors - 2014