Tesla Financial Model.xlsx

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X
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2	X	Tesla DCF
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4		Ticker	TSLA		Current Market Price		$ 129.43		Implied Upside/Downside			5%
5		Date	1/17/2023		Implied Share Price		$ 135.43
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7	X	Assumptions
8		Switches			Conservative				Street/Base				Optimistic
9		Revenue	2		Revenue '23-'24		-2%		Revenue 2032		7%		Revenue 2023		4%
10		EBIT	2		Revenue 2032		2%						Revenue 2032		11%
11		WACC	2		EBIT '23-'24		-0.5%		EBIT 2032		23%		EBIT '23-'24		0.5%
12		TGR	2		EBIT 2032		21%						EBIT 2032		25%
13		WACC	12.03%		WACC		12.53%		WACC		12.03%		WACC		11.03%
14		TGR (terminal Growth rate)	2.50%		TGR		2.0%		TGR		2.50%	Standard	TGR		3.0%
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18	X	Income Statement		2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	{a}
19		Revenue		2,478	3,599	5,292	7,000	11,759	21,461	24,578	31,536	53,823	82,232	110,185	143,698	180,566	156,708	220,938	{b}
20		%growth			45%	47%	32%	68%	83%	15%	28%	71%	53%	34%	30%	26%	-13%	41%
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22		EBIT		100	52	(209)	(317)	(1,165)	(388)	(69)	1,994	6,523	14,138	18,462	26,558	31,993	26,616	29,270
23		% of sales		4%	1%	-4%	-5%	-10%	-2%	0%	6%	12%	17%	17%	18%	18%	17%	13%
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25		Taxes		3	9	13	27	32	58	110	292	699	1,476	2,807	4,410	6,073	5,577	5,860
26		% of EBIT		3%	17%	-6%	-9%	-3%	-15%	-159%	15%	11%	10%	15%	17%	19%	21%	20%
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28	X	Cash Flow Items		2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
29		D&A		106	232	423	947	1,636	1,901	2,154	2,322	2,911	3,724	4,413	5,114	5,577	6,218	7,108
30		% of sales		4%	6%	8%	14%	14%	9%	9%	7%	5%	5%	4%	4%	3%	4%	3%
31		% of CapEx		40%	24%	26%	74%	48%	90%	162%	74%	45%	51%	56%	58%	62%	62%	63%
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33		Capital Expenditures		264	970	1,635	1,281	3,415	2,101	1,327	3,157	6,482	7,246	7,895	8,782	8,936	9,983	11,255
34		% of sales		11%	27%	31%	18%	29%	10%	5%	10%	12%	9%	7%	6%	5%	6%	5%
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36		Change in NWC		125	(257)	(493)	(694)	(497)	58	(349)	184	518
37		% of sales		5%	-7%	-9%	-10%	-4%	0%	-1%	1%	1%
38		% of change in sales			-23%	-29%	-41%	-10%	1%	-11%	3%	2%
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40														1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
41	X	DCF		2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
42		Revenue		2,478	3,599	5,292	7,000	11,759	21,461	24,578	31,536	53,823	82,349	109,519	141,734	179,454	222,184	268,864	317,818	366,780	413,008	453,490	485,235
43		%growth			45%	47%	32%	68%	83%	15%	28%	71%	53%	33%	29%	27%	24%	21%	18%	15%	13%	10%	7%
44		Conservative Case				Taking Conservative Case same as Base Case since assuming street is correct							53%	31%	27%	24%	21%	18%	15%	12%	8%	5%	2%
45		Base Case (Street Case)				Step 1: Assumed that the street (analysts) is correct for FY 2022 since its the closest year to actual reality							53%	33%	29%	27%	24%	21%	18%	15%	13%	10%	7%
46		Optimistic Case				Taking Optimistic Case same as Base Case since assuming street is correct							53%	37%	33%	31%	28%	25%	22%	19%	17%	14%	11%
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48		EBIT		100	52	(209)	(317)	(1,165)	(388)	(69)	1,994	6,523	14,158	17,803	25,486	33,395	42,740	53,406	65,124	77,457	89,810	101,458	111,604
49		% of sales		4%	1%	-4%	-5%	-10%	-2%	0%	6%	12%	17%	16%	18%	19%	19%	20%	20%	21%	22%	22%	23%
50		Conservative Case											17%	16%	17%	18%	18%	19%	19%	20%	20%	21%	21%
51		Base Case (Street Case)											17%	16%	18%	19%	19%	20%	20%	21%	22%	22%	23%
52		Optimistic Case											17%	17%	18%	19%	20%	21%	21%	22%	23%	24%	25%
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54		Taxes		3	9	13	27	32	58	110	292	699	1,476	2,807	4,410	5,933	7,790	9,981	12,472	15,192	18,030	20,837	23,437
55		% of EBIT		3%	17%	-6%	-9%	-3%	-15%	-159%	15%	11%	10%	16%	17%	18%	18%	19%	19%	20%	20%	21%	21%	Present corporate tax os on date is 21%
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57	X	EBIAT (NOPAT)											12,682	14,996	21,076	27,462	34,950	43,425	52,651	62,265	71,780	80,621	88,167
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59		D&A		106	232	423	947	1,636	1,901	2,154	2,322	2,911	3,724	4,413	5,114	6,339	7,679	9,088	10,501	11,840	13,018	13,949	14,557
60		% of sales		4%	6%	8%	14%	14%	9%	9%	7%	5%	5%	4%	4%	4%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%
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62		Capital Expenditures		264	970	1,635	1,281	3,415	2,101	1,327	3,157	6,482	7,246	7,895	8,782	10,851	13,102	15,453	17,792	19,984	21,885	23,353	24,262
63		% of sales		11%	27%	31%	18%	29%	10%	5%	10%	12%	9%	7%	6%	6%	6%	6%	6%	5%	5%	5%	5%
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65		Change in NWC		125	(257)	(493)	(694)	(497)	58	(349)	184	518	35	580	725	648	1,038	1,200	1,350	1,636	1,813	1,980	2,138
66		% of sales		5%	-7%	-9%	-10%	-4%	0%	-1%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	This doesn't impact our model
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68		Unlevered Free Cash Flow												10,934	16,684	22,302	28,488	35,859	44,011	52,484	61,100	69,238	76,324
69		Present Value of FCF												10,934	14,893	17,771	20,263	22,768	24,944	26,553	27,593	27,912	27,465
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71		Terminal Value																					821,234
72		Present Value of Terminal Value																					263,797
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74		Enterprise Value																					484,892
75		(-) Debt																					3,553
76		(+) Cash																					21,107	Per 10K
77		Equity Value (millions)																					502,446
78		Diluted Share Count (millions)																					3,710	Factset
79	X	Implied Share Price																					135.43
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