ABCDEFGHIJ
1
This spreadsheet is an update to previous reasoning we have published (see reasoning here and original values here). We update these values when investigating grants to these locations.
2
Burkina FasoChadNigeria (PMI states)Nigeria (other states)Togo
3
Priors
4
Probability that Global Fund [and PMI] spending would replace Malaria Consortium costs25%25%25%25%25%
5
6
Considerations that were informally informing priors, with guess of contribution to priors
7
Global funding gaps are relatively small (though GiveWell-funded SMC is a large portion of overall SMC)30%30%30%30%30%
8
Other funders taking over philanthropically-funded areas in SMC-5%-5%-5%-5%-5%
9
10
Newly added considerations, with percentage point update on priors
11
Malaria funding increased between the 2018-20 and 2021-23 Global Fund grant periods20%15%0%0%30%
12
Expanded PMI support for SMC in Nigeria--10%--
13
Expectation of increased funding needs in 2024-26-15%-15%-15%-15%-15%
14
Much of Togo's 2021-23 Global Fund malaria allocation was used on HSS ----10%
15
Most of Malaria Consortium's Togo funding goes to UNICEF-supported region-----5%
16
Global Fund allocations are more dynamic than we realized10%10%5%5%10%
17
Other funders are taking Malaria Consortium into account20%20%20%20%20%
18
More funding leads to more room for funding-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%
19
Nigeria may be relatively underfunded0%0%-15%-15%0%
20
21
New values
22
Probability that Global Fund and PMI spending would replace Malaria Consortium costs50%45%20%10%65%
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100