ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
1
Feel free to add comments and or questions in the form of comments....!
2
note, my assumption about herd immunity was wrong.. not 1/2.35 but 1-1/2.35 --> hence 57% rather than 43%... making the scenario more grimm
3
R0 (low)R0 (high)Herd immunity (low)Herd immunity (high)
4
Measles121892%95%
5
Rubella6783%86%
6
Polio5780%86%
7
SARS2550%80%
8
9
R0Herd immunity requiredsource
should be 3 (rivm nos info)
10
COVID19 (A)2.3557%https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30144-4/fulltext
11
12
minimal required exposed (57%)60% exposed80% exposed60% exposed60% exposed52281
13
Inhabitants (B)17,427,00017,427,00017,427,00017,427,00017,427,000
https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/visualisaties/bevolkingsteller
14
Required for herd immunity R0 : (A) * (B) = (C)10,011,25510,456,20013,941,60010,456,20010,456,200
15
16
Cases known assuming 1/6th tested positivehttps://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nieuws/nederland/artikel/5056941/ggd-chef-al-6000-mensen-besmet-met-coronaviurs
17
1/6 * (C) = (D high)1,668,5431,742,7002,323,6001,742,7001,742,700
18
Cases known assuming 1/10th tested postive
19
1/10 * (C) = (D low)1,001,1261,045,6201,394,1601,045,6201,045,620
20
21
Assuming hospitalized 12% of known (currently 15% in NL)https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
22
0.12 * (D) = (E) (high)200,225209,124278,832209,124209,124
23
0.12 * (D) = (E) (low)120,135125,474167,299125,474125,474
24
25
Assuming critial care 5 % of known
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
26
0.05 * (D) = (F) (high)83,42787,135116,18087,13587,135
27
0.05 * (D) = (F) (low)50,05652,28169,70852,28152,281
28
29
Hospitalbeds in NL (3.32/1000) (H)56,44056,44056,44056,44080,000https://gateway.euro.who.int/en/indicators/hfa_478-5060-acute-care-hospital-beds-per-100-000/
30
Critical care beds (6.4/100000) (G)1,0881,0881,0882,5886,000https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00134-012-2627-8
31
Time to recovery in weeks (I low)33333https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
32
Time to recovery in weeks (I high)66666https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
33
weeks
34
Assuming 3 week recovery for ICU 1/6th reported (F high / G) * I low))23024032010144
35
Assuming 6 week recovery for ICU 1/10th reported (F low / G) * I high))27628838412152
36
Assuming 3 week recovery all critical low 1/6th reported (E high / H * I low)111115118
37
Assuming 6 week recovery all critical low 1/10th reported (E low / H * I high131318139
38
39
Assuming 3.6% final fatality rate of known (0.036 * D high)60,06862,73783,65062,73762,737https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext
40
Assuming 3.6% final fatality rate of known (0.036 * D low)36,04137,64250,19037,64237,642https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext
41
Assuming 0.7% final fatality rate of known (0.007 * D high)11,68012,19916,26512,19912,199
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
42
Assuming 0.7% final fatality rate of known (0.007 * D low)7,0087,3199,7597,3197,319
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
43
44
\
45
China Cases~81,000
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
46
China Fatality (3.6%)~2,900
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100