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1 | Hand Calculation | Visualizing Probability Concept | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | Concentration Checks | Assume Wizard has 47 Ranks = 33 (base rank) + 9 (con mod) + 5 (staff), casting difficulty lvl 9 spells | For 50/50 on dice rolls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | Failure Chance | Unmitigated | Failure Chance | Mitigated | Repeater | x2 | Longbow | x3 | 2d10 Massive Crit | Concentration | Damage | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | XBow | LBow | Roll | XBow | LBow | XBow | LBow | Roll | XBow | LBow | Total | Phys | Enrgy | Elemental | Total | Phys | Enrgy | Elemental | Concentration Parameter | DR Calculation | 46 | 46 | ||||||||||||||||
5 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24~48 | 21~40 | 3~3 | 0~5 | 23~45 | 20~37 | 3~3 | 0~5 | 19 | 1d10 Fire Reduced by 5 | 47 | 47 | ||||||||||||||||
6 | 42.00% | 36.96% | 2 | 43~67 | 42~64 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2 | 0~37 | 0~34 | w/ Conc | 1d10 | 3Magic | 1d10 Fire | w/ Conc | 1d8 | 3 Magic | 1d10 Fire | 10 | -4 | 48 | 48 | ||||||||||||||||
7 | 42.00% | 36.96% | 3 | 43~67 | 42~64 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 3 | 0~37 | 0~34 | 43~67 | 13gmw/dmsk/FE | (0~2.5 DR'd) | 42~64 | 13gmw/dmsk/FE | (0~2.5 DR'd) | 9 | -3 | 2d10 Fire Reduced by 5 | 49 | 49 | |||||||||||||||||
8 | 42.00% | 36.96% | 4 | 43~67 | 42~64 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4 | 0~37 | 0~34 | Miti&Con | 2d6 Bane | 1d10 Cold | Miti&Con | 2d6 Bane | 1d10 Cold | -2 | -3 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 50 | 50 | ||||||||||||||
9 | 42.00% | 36.96% | 5 | 43~67 | 42~64 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5 | 0~37 | 0~34 | 0~37 | 5 Mighty | (0~2.5 DR'd) | 0~34 | 4 Mighty | (0~2.5 DR'd) | -1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 51 | 51 | ||||||||||||||
10 | 42.00% | 36.96% | 6 | 43~67 | 42~64 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 6 | 0~37 | 0~34 | Crit | 37~99 | Mitigated | 50% | Crit | 60~174 | Mitigated | 50% | 0 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 52 | 52 | ||||||||||||
11 | 42.00% | 36.96% | 7 | 43~67 | 42~64 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 7 | 0~37 | 0~34 | 48~110 | 42~80 | 6~6 | 0~24 | 69~165 | 60~111 | 9~9 | 0~45 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 53 | 53 | |||||||||||||
12 | 42.00% | 36.96% | 8 | 43~67 | 42~64 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 8 | 0~37 | 0~34 | w/ Conc | 2d10 | 6Magic | 2d10 Fire | M. Crit. | 3d8 | 9Magic | 3d10 Fire | 2 | 15/19 Sides | 78.95% | 54 | 54 | |||||||||||||||
13 | 42.00% | 36.96% | 9 | 43~67 | 42~64 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 9 | 0~37 | 0~34 | 67~129 | 26gmw/dmsk/FE | (0~11.842 DR'd) | 71~185 | 39gmw/dmsk/FE | (0~22.321 DR'd) | 3 | 0 ~ | 11.84210526 | 55 | 55 | |||||||||||||||||
14 | 42.00% | 36.96% | 10 | 43~67 | 42~64 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10 | 0~37 | 0~34 | 4d6 Bane | 2d10 Cold | w/ Conc | 6d6 damask | 3d10 Cold | 4 | 56 | 56 | ||||||||||||||||||||
15 | 42.00% | 36.96% | 11 | 43~67 | 42~64 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 11 | 0~37 | 0~34 | 10 Mighty | (0~11.842 DR'd) | 90~204 | 12 Mighty | (0~22.321 DR'd) | 5 | 5/10 Sides, 50% | 0~2.5 | 57 | 57 | ||||||||||||||||||
16 | 42.00% | 36.96% | 12 | 43~67 | 42~64 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 12 | 0~37 | 0~34 | Green Highlight contributes to breaking concentration | 58 | 58 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | 42.00% | 36.96% | 13 | 43~67 | 42~64 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 13 | 0~37 | 0~34 | Not Mitigated | Conc vs 47+1d20 | 48~67 | 59 | 59 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
18 | 42.00% | 36.96% | 14 | 43~67 | 42~64 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 14 | 0~37 | 0~34 | Crit | XBow | DNE | DNE | 67~129 | 60 | 60 | |||||||||||||||||||||
19 | 42.00% | 36.96% | 15 | 43~67 | 42~64 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 15 | 0~37 | 0~34 | 0 Side | 0 Side | Side | 61 | 61 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | 42.00% | 36.96% | 16 | 43~67 | 42~64 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 16 | 0~37 | 0~34 | 100% | chance of interruption in crits | 62 | 62 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
21 | 100.00% | 36.96% | 17 | 67~129 | 42~64 | 68.25% | 0.00% | 17 | 37~99 | 0~34 | LBow | DNE | DNE | 90~204 | 63 | 63 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
22 | 100.00% | 36.96% | 18 | 67~129 | 42~64 | 68.25% | 0.00% | 18 | 37~99 | 0~34 | 0 Sides | 0 Sides | Sides | 64 | 64 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
23 | 100.00% | 100.00% | 19 | 67~129 | 90~204 | 68.25% | 94.07% | 19 | 37~99 | 60~174 | 100.00% | chance of interruption in crits | 65 | 65 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
24 | 100.00% | 100.00% | 20 | 67~129 | 90~204 | 68.25% | 94.07% | 20 | 37~99 | 60~174 | Mitigated with Premo | 66 | 66 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
25 | 51.50% | 41.41% | Chance of Interruption | 13.65% | 9.41% | Note: It's important to remember that when damage is mitigated to 0 or below, it will not proc a concentration check. But the lower sides of the dice will still dilute the possibilities of getting the higher results. | XBow | 37~46 | 47~66 | 67~99 | 10/63 Sides have 0% chance of Interruption, 20/63 Sides are 50/50, 33/63 sides are 100% | 67 | 67 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
26 | XBow | 25 | sides | 10 Sides | 20 Sides | 33 Sides | 63 | Sides Total | 68 | 68 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
27 | 20 out of 25 sides will result in interruption | 68.25% | chance of interruption in crits | The highlighted parts are the uncertain duels in between damage and concentration rolls, where it will be 50/50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
28 | 42.00% | chance of interruption | LBow | DNE | 60~66 | 67~174 | 108/115 Sides are 100%, 7/115 Sides need further calculation | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
29 | LBow | 23 | sides | 0 Sides | 7 Sides | 108 Sides | 115 | Sides Total | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | 17 out of 23 sides will result in interruption | 0.9406521739 | chance of interruption in crits | On a 60 Conc roll, a minimum of 60 damage defeats the check. 61~67 (7 sides) out of 20 roll is possible to make the concentration check | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
31 | 36.96% | chance of interruption | Thus results would be 7 divided by 20 divided by 115 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
32 |