Coronavirus Estimated Prevalence
 Share
The version of the browser you are using is no longer supported. Please upgrade to a supported browser.Dismiss

View only
 
 
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
1
Estimated prevalence by different methods, for 22 countries.
SG = Singapore, TW = Taiwan
Outbound = returning {Singaporean, Taiwanese} travelers from other countries, Inbound = visitors from other countries
2
Yellow = unreliable numbers
Orange = cases may be somewhat underestimated
Red = cases may be substantially underestimated
Predicted count: prediction under estimated model parameters, bracketed by one stdev on each side
3
Singaporeans returning from abroadVisitors to SingaporeTaiwanese returning from abroadVisitors to Taiwan
4
Notes
Prevalence (Overall Estimate, %)
20 * Case_Prevalence
500 * Death_Prevalence
Population
Cases (Mar. 20)
Deaths (Mar. 20)
Prevalence (Est.) in Origin Country
Count
Predicted Count
Prevalence (Est.) in Origin Country
Count
Predicted Count
Prevalence (Est.) in Origin Country
Count
Predicted Count
Prevalence (Est.) in Origin Country
Count
Predicted Count
5
egypt
5 of 7 TW Outbound cases from same flight
1.940.0060.004102,334,404285800[1.0, 2.6, 4.2]00[0.0, 0.7, 1.5]3.67[1.8, 3.8, 5.7]??0??
6
spain0.750.9231.16946,754,778215711093??4??0.351[0.7, 2.2, 3.6]0.937[3.3, 5.6, 8.0]00[0.0, 0.2, 0.6]
7
united kingdom0.5030.1170.1367,886,01139831770.6529
[17.8, 22.6, 27.3]
0.3312
[14.1, 18.4, 22.7]
0.65[2.1, 4.2, 6.2]00[0.0, 0.8, 1.8]
8
turkey
All 14 TW Outbound cases from same flight
0.4710.0160.00584,339,06767090.222[2.3, 4.4, 6.5]??0??0.5714
[8.2, 11.6, 15.0]
??0??
9
polandn=10.2810.0220.00737,846,611425500[0.0, 0.7, 1.6]??0??0.971[0.0, 0.3, 0.8]??0??
10
france0.2740.3860.34565,273,51112612450??5??0.11[1.1, 2.7, 4.3]??5??1.832[0.0, 0.3, 0.8]
11
netherlands0.2270.3490.30917,134,8722,994106??0??0.422[0.0, 1.1, 2.1]0.131[0.5, 1.8, 3.1]0[0.0, 0.1, 0.5]
12
icelandn=10.1782.3970341,243409000[0.0, 0.5, 1.2]??00.341[0.0, 0.5, 1.2]??0??
13
united states0.170.1190.04331,002,65119,6582640.198[4.5, 7.2, 9.8]0.146[4.6, 7.3, 10.1]0.210[5.5, 8.4, 11.3]0.081[0.7, 2.1, 3.6]
14
south african=10.1660.007059,308,69020200.41[0.0, 0.4, 1.1]00[0.0, 0.5, 1.1]0[0.0, 0.1, 0.4]00[0.0, 0.0, 0.2]
15
germany0.1040.4740.04183,783,94219,84868??1??0.082[0.9, 2.5, 4.1]0.133[0.8, 2.4, 3.9]00[0.0, 0.1, 0.5]
16
philippines0.1010.0040.008109,581,078230180.125[2.3, 4.4, 6.5]0.072[1.2, 3.0, 4.7]0.164[0.9, 2.5, 4.1]00[0.1, 1.1, 2.2]
17
italy
Likely low due to travel restrictions
0.0511.5553.33460,461,82647,0214,0320[0.0, 0.6, 1.4]00[0.0, 0.3, 0.9]0.761[0.0, 0.1, 0.3]00[0.0, 0.0, 0.2]
18
switzerland0.051.2980.3248,654,6225,615560.051[0.0, 1.0, 2.0]00[0.0, 0.3, 0.8]0.071[0.0, 0.8, 1.6]00[0.0, 0.0, 0.1]
19
india0.036001,380,004,38525850.063[0.4, 1.7, 3.0]0.021[0.7, 2.1, 3.6]0[0.0, 0.2, 0.6]00[0.0, 0.0, 0.2]
20
china
Closed borders to China, likely underestimate
0.0330.1130.1131,439,323,77681,0083,2550.038[5.3, 8.1, 10.9]0.0816[3.9, 6.4, 8.9]0.019
[16.2, 20.7, 25.3]
0.133[0.0, 0.7, 1.6]
21
canadan=10.0290.0580.01637,742,1541,0871200[0.0, 0.3, 0.8]00[0.0, 0.3, 0.8]0.071[0.0, 0.4, 1.0]00[0.0, 0.1, 0.4]
22
indonesia0.0170.0030.006273,523,615369320.015[4.9, 7.7, 10.5]0.035[1.2, 2.9, 4.6]0.051[0.0, 0.4, 1.0]00[0.0, 0.1, 0.3]
23
thailand0.010.0090.00169,799,97832210.014[1.8, 3.8, 5.7]0.051[0.0, 0.2, 0.7]0[0.0, 0.9, 1.9]00[0.0, 0.1, 0.3]
24
japan0.0040.0160.014126,476,4611,007350.011[0.0, 0.5, 1.2]0.031[0.0, 0.2, 0.5]01[0.7, 2.2, 3.7]00[0.0, 0.2, 0.5]
25
malaysia0.0020.0640.00532,365,9991,030304[2.6, 4.8, 7.0]0.021[0.0, 0.1, 0.4]0[0.0, 0.1, 0.3]00[0.0, 0.0, 0.1]
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
Loading...