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READ ME FIRST -->All of these tests were conducted using an NTSC-J copy of Luigi's Mansion on Dolphin. These tests aim to give an accurate estimation of the chances of some of the most notable RNG events in Luigi's Mansion. These may not be 100% precise, but these tests are likely accurate enough to their true values.
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Early Release Probabilities
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Early Release has been confirmed to be a 50/50 odds based on the code of the game. The results of this test will be left here for those who are curious. Huge thanks to LMFinish for confirming and examing the source code to confirm ER odds.
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Confirmed Probability of ER:50.00%
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Parlour Text Skip Probabilities
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Parlour Text Skip (PTS) is the ability to skip the 1st boo dialogue in parlour by sucking up the cloth immediately after capturing the first boo saving 7 seconds. Since there is a chance the boo may be hiding in the cloth, the ability to get this trick is RNG. For this test, 50 cycles were ran, beginning from entering the mansion after boo release and ending upon revelation of the boo. The second test pulled data from Saria's and Artemis64's boo locations probabilities to deduce there is a ~64% chance the boo will not be in the cloth. This was given ten iterations to count towards the calculation. Next, PTS was counted from runner RedsMSR's streams and added to the calculation to determine there is roughly a 3-in-5 chance of getting Parlour Text Skip.
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Test IterationTests RunText SkipNo Text SkipChance of Text SkipChance of No Text Skip
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Parlour Text Skip Test50292158.00%42.00%
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Saria's Boo Probabilities10 (see notes)6463.60%36.4%
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Parlour Text Skip - RedsMSR Stream Count159660.00%40.00%
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Total Across All Tests75443158.66%41.33%
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Overall Likely Probability of Parlour Text Skip:~58.66% or 3-in-5
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Breaker Boo (Bluehits Bless) Probabilities
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This test measures the chances Breaker Boo will return to Breaker Room if they escape into the basement hallway. This test was measured 50 times and resulted in Breaker Boo travelling to Pipe Room 47 out of 50 times. The takeaway from this being that it is extremely unlikely Breaker Boo will return to breaker room if he is lost.
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Test IterationTests RunWent to BreakerWent to Pipe RoomChance of Bluehits BlessChance of No Bluehits Bless
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Breaker Boo Test503476.00%94.00%
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Overall Likely Probability of Bluehits Bless:~6.00% or 1-in-20
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Van Gore Text Probabilities
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Van Gore Text is the longest text possible from E. Gadd in the game. It can lose between 5-10 seconds depending on the runner's mashing speed. Upon examination of the Game's code. The specific rates of which Van Gore Text may appear are outlined below, depending how many Boos the player currently has.
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1-14 Boos15-24 Boos25+ Boos
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0.00%10.00%6.60%
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General Boo Text Probabilities
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The text you receive from E. Gadd is pretermined from a list of cases, numbered from 0 to 5. Cases 0 and 2 are a 100% chance since they are the text entires for the first boo and fifth boo captures respecitvely. The chances of any given text are equally weighted, so 100 divided by the total number of text entries in the case is calculated to give the chance rate of given any text from the case. Also listed are which text entires are in which case. Which E. Gadd text corresponds to which text entry is on the second tab, Text Entry to E Gadd Text Conversion.
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Case 0 (1st Boo)Case 1 (Boos 2-4) Shared with Case 3Case 2 (5th Boo)Case 3 (Boos 6-14) Shared with Case 1Case 4 (Boos 15-24)Case 5 (Boos 25+)
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100.00%12.50%100.00%12.50%10.00%6.60%
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Case 0 (1st Boo)Case 1 (Boos 2-4) Shared with Case 3Case 2 (5th Boo)Case 3 (Boos 6-14) Shared with Case 1Case 4 (Boos 15-24)Case 5 (Boos 25+)
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Presett1, t2, t3, t4, t5, t6, t7, t8Presett1, t2, t3, t4, t5, t6, t7, t8t6, t7, t8, t14, t15, t16, t17, t18, t19, t20t1, t2, t3, t9, t10, t11, t12, t13, t14, t15, t16, t17, t18, t19, t20
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Poison Mushroom Probabilities
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This test measures the chances a Poison Mushroom will spawn from a piece of furniture. This was done using the second chandelier in the Whirlindas. The test was done both without collecting the gold bar and without, to measure if collecting a treasure increases or lowers the rate of a poison mushroom spawn (it doesn't). The two tests were added together to determine a roughly 1 in 10 chance of spawning a poison mushroom from a piece of furniture.
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Test IterationTests RunPoison Mushroom SpawnedNo Poison MushroomChance of Poison MushroomChance of No Poison Mushroom
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Mushroom - Without Collected Gold Bar5054510.00%90.00%
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Mushroom - WIth Gold Bar Collected5064412.00%88.00%
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Total Across All Tests100118911.00%89.00%
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Overall Likely Probability of Poison Mushroom Spawn:~11.00% or 1-in-10
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Golden Mouse Probabilities
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This measures the chances a golden mouse will appear, for the 5 possibilites a golden mouse will spawn (Kitchen, 1F hall, 2F hall, Tea room, Sealed room). This measurement is primarily helpful for Max% and All Gems runners, who rely on Golden Mice to complete their runs. This may also benefit 100% runners who may use the random chance of a golden mouse to boost their money count. The test was conducted 50 times twice, once in Kitchen and once in Tea Room. Notably, the Tea Room spawn was notably less than the Kitchen spawn rate. Averaging out, it is likely the golden mouse spawn is a 1 in 5 chance, as already commonly believed and stated on the LM wiki.
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Test IterationTests RunGold Mouse SpawnNo Gold Mouse SpawnChance of Gold MouseChance of No Gold Mouse
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Kitchen Gold Mouse Test50133726.00%74.00%
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Tea Room Gold Mouse Test5054510.00%90.00%
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Total Across All Tests100188218.00%82.00%
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Overall Likely Probability of Golden Mouse Spawn:~18.00% or 1-in-5
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ER and/or Parlour Text Skip Probabilities
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This combines the chances of getting both ER and/or Parlour Text Skip, arguably two of the most important RNG factors for any LM run (especially for high-level No OoB runs). The most likely outcome of this is that a runner will not get ER but will get Parlour Text Skip. The next most likely outcome is that the runner will get neither ER or text skip. The least likely outcome is getting ER but not getting text skip.
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ScenarioChance of ER/no ERChance of Text Skip/No Text SkipOverall Chance
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Both ER and Parlour Text Skip0.50.586629.33%
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ER and no Parlour Text Skip0.50.413420.50%
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No ER and Parlour Text Skip0.50.586629.33%
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Neither ER nor Parlour Text Skip0.50.413420.50%
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Created by anthonyhmtnj. Special thanks to RedsMSR, ChillWizard, Flauke, and Kaiirunz for reviewing and/or assisitng with this. Special thanks to Saria_100 and Artemis64 for the parlour boo probabilities. Special thanks to LMFinish for confirming ER + VGT rate. Special thanks to ChillWizard for providing Boo Text source codes. Contact me (anthonyhmtnj) on Discord with any issues.