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Porsche AG (in €)202020212022202320242025E2026E2027E2028E
Rationale
Discount Rate
7%
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No of shares
911
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Total Unit Deliveries 272,162301,915309,884320,221310,718292,075295,000300,000300,000
Unit Deliveries will remain under pressure, Car sales down 6% YTD
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Avg. Selling Price (ASP) (€ 000s)105110121127129129129129129
ASP to remain same as Porsche rework their offerings and Chinese competition ramps up
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Total Sales Revenue (€mm)28,69533,13837,63740,53040,08337,67838,05538,70038,700
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Cost of Sales 21,598 24,281 27,089 28,924 29,756
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Gross Profit7,0978,85710,54811,60610,327
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OPERATING PROFIT (EBIT)4,1775,3146,7727,2855,6371,1303,0444,6446,192
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EBIT Margin (%)14.56%16.04%17.99%17.97%14.06%3.00%8.00%12.00%16.00%
The 2025 YTD margin was only 0.2% due to one-off expenses. Expecting the company to go back to its target EBIT% over the next 5 years
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Automotive Net Cash Flow2,1983,6763,8663,9733,7356781,8272,7863,715
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FCF Margin (%)7.66%11.09%10.27%9.80%9.32%
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FCF/EBIT %52.62%69.18%57.09%54.54%66.26%60.00%60.00%60.00%60.00%
Projected average of last 5 years
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Terminal Multiple10
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0.251.252.253.25
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PV of FCF 667 1,679 2,393 32,801
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Intrinsic Value per share41.219% downside
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Current Share Price45.37
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Source
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Annual & Sustainability Report
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https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/annual-sustainability-report/combined-management-report/results-of-operations-financial-position-and-net-assets/#:~:text=The%20Porsche%20AG%20Group%20generated,%E2%80%8D
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https://newsroom.porsche.com/en_PME/2023/company/porsche-annual-press-conference-financial-year-2022-annual-and-sustainability-report-31485.html
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https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2021/company/porsche-annual-press-conference-financial-year-2020-annual-and-sustainability-report-23936.html
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https://investorrelations.porsche.com/en/financial-information/fact-sheet
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https://investorrelations.porsche.com/~/media/Files/P/porsche-ir/results-and-presentations/financial-reports-and-presentation/2025/q2/half-year-financial-report-2025-en.pdf
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https://www.volkswagen-group.com/en/articles/porsche-ag-records-robust-results-in-a-challenging-environment-19052#:~:text=%E2%80%9CIn%202024%2C%20Porsche%20has%20proven,year%20(4.0%20billion%20euros).
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Net Cash Flow numbers from Annual & Sustainability Report
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