Godalming and Ash Consituency Poll

Conducted by Survation on behalf of 38 Degrees

Data Weighting

Data were weighted to the profile of adults aged 18+ in wards comprising the new Godalming and Ash Constituency. Data were weighted by age, sex, ward area, notional 2019 GE vote, and notional 2016 EU Vote

Targets for the weighted data were derived from Office for National Statistics data.

Margin of Error

Because only a sample of the full population was interviewed, all results are subject to margin of error, meaning that not all differences are statistically significant.

For example, in a question where 50% (the worst case scenario as far as margin of error is concerned) gave a particular answer, given the sample of 507 it is 95% certain that the ‘true' value will fall within the range of 5.2% from the sample result.

Subsamples from the cross-breaks will be subject to higher margin of error, conclusions drawn from crossbreaks with very small sub-samples should be treated with caution.

Voting Intention

In order to assess voting intention, we first asked respondents, on a scale of 0-10, how likely they would be to vote in the upcoming by-election

This likelihood to vote was then used to factor voters' responses, such that respondents replying “10” were weighted by a factor of 1.0, whilst those responding “9” were weighted by a factor of 0.9, and so on down, while responses of “5” and lower were excluded altogether.

The survey was conducted via telephone interview and online interview.

Respondents were then asked for which party they would be most likely to vote in that election. The responses “Conservative”, “Labour”, “Liberal Democrats”, "Green Party", "Reform UK", were asked in a randomising order, and if respondents selected “Another Party” they were then asked to specify.

As an additional step, respondents who replied “undecided” and “refused” were then removed from the sample.

All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.

All residents aged 18+ living the new Godalming and Ash Constituency

Question presentation

All data tables are shown in full, in order and wording put to respondents, including but not limited to all tables relating to published data and all relevant tables preceding them.

Tables for demographic questions might not be included but these should be clear from the cross-breaks on published tables.

In all questions where the responses are a list of parties, names or statements, these will typically have been displayed to respondents in a randomising order.

The only questions which would not have had randomising responses would be those in which there was a natural order to maintain

– e.g. a scale from “very good” to “very poor”, a list of numbers from 0 to 10 or questions which had factual rather than opinion-related answers such as demographic information. “Other”, “Don't know” and “Refused” responses are not randomised.

Not all questions will have necessarily been asked to all respondents – this is because they may be follow-on questions from previous questions or only appropriate to certain demographic groups.

Lower response counts should make clear where this has occurred.

Data were analysed and weighted by Survation.

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researchteam@survation.com

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