QC-CAD-USA COVID models
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ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
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COVID DATA for Quebec, Canada and USA
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DATA AS OF2020-03-25
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Assume: Hospitalizations as % of cases6.50%
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Assume: deaths as % of cases2.00%
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QuebecCanada USA
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Total number of cases 14,89814,018307,036
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Number of days from now 606060
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% growth today6.9%13.3%10.7%
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Growth based on last 5 days rolling average 2%13.5%13.6%
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Scenario 1: unchecked growth, "forever"20%20%20%
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cases (capped at 40% of population)3,360,00014,000,000140,000,000
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hospitalizations 218,400910,0009,100,000
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deaths 67,200280,0002,800,000
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Scenario 2: Good measures reduce spread / growth/day10%10%10%
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cases 4,536,1674,268,22493,486,825
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hospitalizations 294,851277,4356,076,644
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deaths 90,72385,3641,869,736
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Scenario 3: Effective measures reduce spread / growth/day2%2%2%
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cases 57,87554,4561,192,753
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hospitalizations 3,7623,54077,529
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deaths 1,1571,08923,855
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Contact me on Twitter @hughmcguire with comments, or if interested in making this into a webby app that lets people see what's happening. Or just go for it ;-)
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license: CC-BY
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For context on this chart please see: Why #socialdistancing is life or death
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