QC-CAD-USA COVID models

	A	B	C	D
1	COVID DATA for Quebec, Canada and USA
2	DATA AS OF	2020-03-25
3	Assume: Hospitalizations as % of cases	6.50%
4	Assume: deaths as % of cases	2.00%
5		Quebec	Canada	USA
6	Total number of cases	14,898	14,018	307,036
7	Number of days from now	60	60	60
8	% growth today	6.9%	13.3%	10.7%
9	Growth based on last 5 days rolling average	2%	13.5%	13.6%
10
11	Scenario 1: unchecked growth, "forever"	20%	20%	20%
12	cases (capped at 40% of population)	3,360,000	14,000,000	140,000,000
13	hospitalizations	218,400	910,000	9,100,000
14	deaths	67,200	280,000	2,800,000
15	Scenario 2: Good measures reduce spread / growth/day	10%	10%	10%
16	cases	4,536,167	4,268,224	93,486,825
17	hospitalizations	294,851	277,435	6,076,644
18	deaths	90,723	85,364	1,869,736
19	Scenario 3: Effective measures reduce spread / growth/day	2%	2%	2%
20	cases	57,875	54,456	1,192,753
21	hospitalizations	3,762	3,540	77,529
22	deaths	1,157	1,089	23,855
23	Contact me on Twitter @hughmcguire with comments, or if interested in making this into a webby app that lets people see what's happening. Or just go for it ;-)
24	license: CC-BY
25	For context on this chart please see: Why #socialdistancing is life or death
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