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ASSUMPTIONSAssuming growth rate for y/y % gain for total ETH Staked50%25%10%
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Assuming growth rate for y/y % gain for total ETH Staked40%20%10%
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Using the ETH supply 2Y projection on https://ultrasound.money/ to model the ETH supply with the following parameters, 60 Gwei base fee 25M31M34M
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ETH supply Projection
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Pre shanghaiPost shanghai 202320242025
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ETH Supply120,491,533.39120,600,000.00119,300,000.00117,900,000.00
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Total ETH Staked16,771,719.1325157578.6931446973.3634591670.7
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% ETH Staked13.92%20.86%26.36%29.34%
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Staked ETH in liquid staking6,779,459.739491243.61611389492.3412528441.57
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% of Staked ETH in liquid staking40.42%37.73%36.22%36.22%
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Pre shanghai
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Market shareETH staked with protocolAPR offeredFeesRevenueFDVP/S in ETH terms
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Lido72.33%4,903,892.505.20%5%12750.120492,712,881,887212,773.04
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Rocketpool6.00%406,432.004.70%15%2865.3456522,224,000182,255.15
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StakeWise1.08%73,396.355.35%10%392.6704481172,864,228440,227.24
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frxETH1.49%101,062.067.38%10%745.83801321,031,865,4841,383,498.11
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202320242025
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ASSUMPTIONSAssuming that sfrxETH APR dropped to7.00%6.75%6.50%
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For the market share, It is an arbitrary number that i estimated.
It can be more accurate if im able to obtain the growth rate of each liquid staking token from this query. But im requried to download the data to obtain it easily (Paid plan required)
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LSD P/S protocol projections in terms of ETH
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Market share
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frxETH2%4%6%8%10%
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Post Shanghai 2023776,554.48388,277.24258,851.49194,138.62155,310.90
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2024671,096.46335,548.23223,698.82167,774.12134,219.29
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2025633,552.61316,776.30211,184.20158,388.15126,710.52
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Lido68%64%60%56%52%
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Post Shanghai 2023161,668.54171,772.82183,224.34196,311.79211,412.70
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2024134,723.78143,144.02152,686.95163,593.16176,177.25
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2025122,476.16130,130.92138,806.32148,721.06160,161.14
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RocketPool7%8.00%9.00%10.00%11.00%
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Post Shanghai 2023111,492.7397,556.1486,716.5778,044.9170,949.92
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202492,910.6181,296.7872,263.8165,037.4359,124.93
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202584,464.1973,906.1765,694.3759,124.9353,749.94
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StakeWise1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
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Post Shanghai 2023226,953.54170,215.16136,172.13113,476.7797,265.80
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2024189,127.95141,845.97113,476.7794,563.9881,054.84
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2025171,934.50128,950.88103,160.7085,967.2573,686.22
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