20210610 HGEN model in progress v2

	C	E	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T
1
2
3		Target Price:	#NUM!
4
5		Current Share Price:	$51.90
6
7		Upside Potential:	#NUM!			Forecast Period									Stub
8				2019A	2020A	2021E	2022E	2023E	2024E	2025E	2026E	2027E	2028E	2029E	7/5/2024	1/31/2022
9	Balance Sheet Check			OK	OK	OK	OK	OK	OK	OK	OK	OK	OK	OK	OK	OK
10	End of Period			12/31/2019	12/31/2020	12/31/2021	12/31/2022	12/31/2023	12/31/2024	12/31/2025	12/31/2026	12/31/2027	12/31/2028	12/31/2029	7/5/2024	1/31/2022
11	Days in Period			365	366	365	365	365	366	365	365	365	366	365	1,282	(886)
12	Fraction of Year			1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.510	(2.510)
13	In $USD millions except per share data

14
15	Assumptions
16
17	COGS					20.0%	20.0%	19.1%	17.0%	15.2%	13.9%	13.0%	12.2%	11.7%	20.0%	20.0%
18
19	SG&A					10.9%	12.7%	24.6%	25.6%	24.9%	23.6%	23.0%	22.3%	22.8%	10.9%	10.9%
20	R&D					15.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%
21
22	Tax rate					21.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	21.0%	21.0%
23
24	Accounts Receivable (Days)					91.2	84.8	79.4	74.5	70.3	66.3	62.9	59.9	57.1	91.2	91.2
25	Inventory (Days)					61.0	64.2	67.6	67.8	67.1	67.4	67.0	67.5	68.3	61.0	61.0
26	Accounts Payable (Days)					91.0	84.5	79.3	74.3	69.8	66.1	63.0	59.8	56.5	91.0	91.0
27
28	Sales Breakdown
29
30	COVID-19	POS
31	US	99%				430	1,299	1,145	1,048	941	976	934	887	836
32	UK	80%				63	262	153	140	126	130	124	118	111
33	EU	80%				124	1,730	1,516	1,378	1,231	1,269	1,206	1,139	1,067
34	Brazil	80%				158	1,930	1,430	889	614	477	428	375	353
35	Mexico	80%				136	487	286	261	234	242	232	220	207
36	India	80%				239	725	480	294	265	275	264	251	237
37	Rest	n/a
38	Total					1,150	6,432	5,010	4,010	3,411	3,369	3,188	2,990	2,810
39	Total - Risk Adjusted					1,002	5,392	4,225	3,407	2,908	2,881	2,728	2,561	2,407
40
41	Stockpile	80%				0	351	1,237	0	0	0	414	0	203
42	Non-Covid-19 ARDS	n/a
43	Total					0	351	1,237	0	0	0	414	0	203
44	Total - Risk Adjusted					0	281	989	0	0	0	331	0	162
45
46	CAR-T
47	US sales & Ex-US sales combined	60%				0	6	47	101	153	206	260	291	320
48	Total					0	6	47	101	153	206	260	291	320
49	Total - Risk Adjusted					0	4	28	60	92	123	156	175	192
50
51	GvHD
52	US sales & Ex-US sales combined	55%				0	0	43	107	152	175	194	209	222
53	Total					0	0	43	107	152	175	194	209	222
54	Total - Risk Adjusted					0	0	24	59	84	96	106	115	122
55
56	Total Revenue					1,150	6,789	6,337	4,218	3,717	3,750	4,056	3,491	3,555
57	Risk-adjusted Revenue					1,002	5,677	5,267	3,527	3,084	3,101	3,322	2,851	2,884
58
59
60	Income Statement
61
62	Revenue			0.0	0.3	1001.8	5676.8	5266.6	3526.6	3083.6	3100.8	3322.1	2850.8	2883.5	3516.2	-2514.4
63	COGS			0.0	0.0	200.4	1135.4	1005.9	599.5	468.7	431.0	431.9	347.8	337.4	703.2	-502.9
64	Gross Profit			0.0	0.3	801.4	4541.5	4260.7	2927.1	2614.9	2669.8	2890.3	2503.0	2546.1	2813.0	-2011.5
65	Expenses
66	SG&A			6.3	15.8	109.2	721.0	1295.6	902.8	767.8	731.8	764.1	635.7	657.4	383.3	-274.1
67	R&D			2.6	72.7	150.3	851.5	790.0	529.0	462.5	465.1	498.3	427.6	432.5	527.4	-377.2
68	Other (Income)/Expense			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
69	Total Expenses			8.9	88.5	259.5	1572.5	2085.6	1431.8	1230.3	1196.9	1262.4	1063.4	1090.0	910.7	-651.2
70	Operating Income			-8.9	-88.2	542.0	2969.0	2175.1	1495.3	1384.5	1472.9	1627.9	1439.7	1456.2	1902.3	-1360.3
71	Interest (Expense) Income			-1.4	-1.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
72	Other (expense) income, net			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
73	Pre Tax Income			-10.3	-89.5	542.0	2969.0	2175.1	1495.3	1384.5	1472.9	1627.9	1439.7	1456.2	1902.3	-1360.3
74	Income Tax (benefit)			0.0	0.0	113.8	742.2	543.8	373.8	346.1	368.2	407.0	359.9	364.0	399.5	-285.7
75	Net Income			-10.3	-89.5	428.1	2226.7	1631.3	1121.5	1038.4	1104.7	1220.9	1079.7	1092.1	1502.8	-1074.6
76
77	Average Shares Diluted				42.7	59.1	60.0	61.0	62.0	63.0	64.0	65.0	66.0	67.0	59.1	59.1
78	Diluted EPS				($2.10)	$7.24	$37.11	$26.74	$18.09	$16.48	$17.26	$18.78	$16.36	$16.30	$25.43	($18.18)
79
80	Balance Sheet
81
82	Assets
83	Cash and cash equivalents			0.2	67.7	366.9	1571.2	3345.2	4873.5	6004.1	7133.9	8343.0	9525.9	10630.0	1441.7	359.0
84	Accounts receivables, net			0.0	0.0	250.3	1319.3	1145.8	717.4	593.6	563.5	572.1	466.2	450.8	250.2	258.9
85	Inventories			0.0	0.0	33.5	199.7	186.4	111.0	86.2	79.6	79.2	64.2	63.1	33.4	34.6
86	Other current assets			0.3	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3
87	Total Current Assets			0.5	68.2	651.0	3090.6	4677.7	5702.3	6684.2	7777.3	8994.7	10056.7	11144.2	1725.6	651.0
88	Plant, property & equipment			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
89	Other assets			0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
90	Total Other Assets			0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
91	TOTAL ASSETS			0.6	68.3	651.2	3090.8	4677.9	5702.5	6684.4	7777.5	8994.9	10056.9	11144.4	1725.8	651.2
92
93	Liabilities
94	Accounts payable and accrued expenses			8.4	18.5	50.0	262.8	218.5	121.7	89.6	78.1	74.6	56.8	52.2	49.9	51.7
95	Other			5.2	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9
96	Total Current Liabilities			13.6	20.4	51.9	264.7	220.4	123.6	91.5	80.0	76.5	58.7	54.1	51.8	51.9
97	Long term debt			0.0	0.0	24.4	24.4	24.4	24.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	24.4	24.4
98	Other liabilities			1.2	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3
99	Total Liabilities			14.8	22.7	78.6	291.4	247.1	150.3	93.8	82.3	78.8	61.0	56.4	78.5	78.6
100