Public OWL S3 Stage Playoff Odds
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SeedTeamElo ratingChampionFinalist
Semifinalist
E(prize$)
Elo win probabilities
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1NYE1112.89.6%27.6%62.8%$64,077
Elo odds for specific match result
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2VAN1175.636.9%60.8%91.5%$115,217
Win 1 map
NYEVANHZSSFSSEOVALHOUSHDTeamVANSFS
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3HZS1158.714.7%26.1%52.2%$65,829Elo1112.81175.61158.71155.41118.51150.59671064.5Elo rating1175.61155.4
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4SFS1155.416.3%31.9%59.8%$72,232NYE1112.841.1%43.4%43.9%49.2%44.6%69.8%56.9%
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5SEO1118.56.8%17.0%40.2%$50,269VAN1175.658.9%52.4%52.9%58.1%53.6%76.9%65.5%Each map52.9%47.1%Each map
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6VAL1150.513.7%28.3%47.8%$64,813HZS1158.756.6%47.6%50.5%55.8%51.2%75.1%63.2%Bo555.4%44.6%Bo5
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7HOU9670.1%1.0%8.5%$27,682SFS1155.456.1%47.1%49.5%55.3%50.7%74.7%62.8%Bo756.3%43.7%Bo7
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8SHD1064.51.9%7.3%37.2%$39,880SEO1118.550.8%41.9%44.2%44.7%45.4%70.5%57.7%
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VAL1150.555.4%46.4%48.8%49.3%54.6%74.2%62.1%Exact score
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HOU96730.2%23.1%24.9%25.3%29.5%25.8%36.3%Bo5 3-014.8%10.4%Bo5 0-3
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Visual bracket - based on highest probability scenarios
SHD1064.543.1%34.5%36.8%37.2%42.3%37.9%63.7%Bo5 3-120.9%16.6%Bo5 1-3
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Bo5 3-219.7%17.5%Bo5 2-3
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Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Finals
Champion
Win Bo5
NYEVANHZSSFSSEOVALHOUSHD
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1NYE62.8%Elo1112.81175.61158.71155.41118.51150.59671064.5Bo7 4-07.8%4.9%Bo7 0-4
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8SHD37.2%1NYE27.6%NYE1112.833.6%37.8%38.7%48.5%39.9%83.5%62.8%Bo7 4-114.8%10.4%Bo7 1-4
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VAN1175.666.4%54.5%55.4%65.0%56.7%91.5%77.2%Bo7 4-217.4%13.8%Bo7 2-4
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4SFS59.8%4SFS16.3%HZS1158.762.2%45.5%50.9%60.7%52.2%89.7%73.7%Bo7 4-316.4%14.6%Bo7 3-4
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5SEO40.2%4SFS31.9%SFS1155.461.3%44.6%49.1%59.8%51.3%89.4%73.0%
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SEO1118.551.5%35.0%39.3%40.2%41.4%84.4%64.2%
Matchup odds overrides
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3HZS52.2%VANVAL1150.560.1%43.3%47.8%48.7%58.6%88.8%71.9%
Use these cells to override the Elo win probabilities with match odds (like Winston's Lab prediction contest)
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6VAL47.8%2VAN60.8%HOU96716.5%8.5%10.3%10.6%15.6%11.2%25.6%
Input % team in rows on left beats team listed on top of column.
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SHD1064.537.2%22.8%26.3%27.0%35.8%28.1%74.4%QF (Bo5)
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2VAN91.5%2VAN36.9%SF/F (Bo7)
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7HOU8.5%3HZS26.1%
Win Bo7
NYEVANHZSSFSSEOVALHOUSHDNot used87654321
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Elo1112.81175.61158.71155.41118.51150.59671064.5EliminatedSHDHOUVALSEOSFSHZSVANNYE
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Final 4
If you make a copy and want to refer to the original or check for updates, web link below
NYE1112.821.4%28.1%29.5%47.1%31.7%96.5%72.9%1NYE
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1
Stage Playoff Odds calculator
VAN1175.678.6%58.5%60.1%76.5%62.5%99.5%91.8%2VAN
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4HZS1158.771.9%41.5%51.7%69.5%54.1%99.1%88.2%3HZS
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3Other links:SFS1155.470.5%39.9%48.3%68.0%52.5%99.0%87.4%4SFS
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Season schedule simulation
SEO1118.552.9%23.5%30.5%32.0%34.3%97.0%75.3%5SEO
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Elo calculator
VAL1150.568.3%37.5%45.9%47.5%65.7%98.8%86.1%6VAL
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HOU9673.5%0.5%0.9%1.0%3.0%1.2%11.0%7HOU
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SHD1064.527.1%8.2%11.8%12.6%24.7%13.9%89.0%8SHD
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