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For various levels of incremental issuance and total deposits (as % of supply), analyzes the average gross yield available to the validator set.
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* For 1-5% TD/MCap, 0.5% issuance will cover the budget. For 5-25% TD/Mcap, might require 2-3% issuance.
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($, #, ETH in millions)
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Ether Supply
Market Assumptions
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Current ETH Supply (M)
96.0
Market Capitalization (MCap, $M)
$30,000
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New ETH per Year (M)
9.74
MCap / Total Deposits Ratio
22.0
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Inflation Rate10%
Total Deposits at Terminal ($M)
$1,364
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Blocks per Year (M)
1.86
Total Deposits to Start ($M)
$300
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Checkpoints per Year (M)
0.03737101.17647
% Deposit Saturation
22%
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Blocks per Day5,082$/ETH$300
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Checkpoints per Day
102
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Required Return (CAPM)
Constants
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Risk-free Rate1.0%Million1,000,000
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Market Return8.0%
Seconds in years
31,536,000
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Initial Required Return
50%
Blocks per Checkpoint
5026.95332319
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Terminal Required Return
15%Days per Year365
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Implied Initial Beta
7.0ETH per Block5
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Implied Terminal Beta
2.0Block time (s)17
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Uncle Rate5%
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Incremental Increase in Issuance Rate
0.1%1%5%10%15%20%25%30%
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ETH per Year9,73997,391486,953973,9061,460,8591,947,8122,434,7652,921,718
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ETH reward per checkpoint
0.32.613.126.339.452.565.678.8
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$ per checkpoint$79$788$3,938$7,875$11,813$15,750$19,688$23,625
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$ per day$8,005$80,047$400,235$800,471$1,200,706$1,600,941$2,001,176$2,401,412
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$ per year ($M)$2.9$29.2$146.1$292.2$438.3$584.3$730.4$876.5
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Issuance as % of Total Supply
0.01%0.10%0.51%1.01%1.52%2.03%2.54%3.04%
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ETH Price impact (Proxy for dilution, @ $300)
$300.0$299.7$298.5$297.0$295.4$293.9$292.4$290.9
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ETH per Validator at various # of Validators
$ per Validator
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% of MCapTD ($M)Yield at various TDETH (M)1001,00010,000100,0001,000,00010,000,0001001,00010,000100,0001,000,00010,000,000
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0.05%$1519.5%194.8%973.9%1947.8%2921.7%3895.6%4869.5%5843.4%0.0550050510.050.005$150,000$15,000$1,500$150$15$2
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0.1%$309.7%97.4%487.0%973.9%1460.9%1947.8%2434.8%2921.7%0.11,0001001010.100.010$300,000$30,000$3,000$300$30$3
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1%$3001.0%9.7%48.7%97.4%146.1%194.8%243.5%292.2%110,0001,0001001010.10$3,000,000$300,000$30,000$3,000$300$30
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2.5%$7500.4%3.9%19.5%39.0%58.4%77.9%97.4%116.9%0.001050%2.525,0002,5002502530.25$7,500,000$750,000$75,000$7,500$750$75
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5%$1,5000.2%1.9%9.7%19.5%29.2%39.0%48.7%58.4%1.47633152550,0005,0005005051$15,000,000$1,500,000$150,000$15,000$1,500$150
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10%$3,0000.1%1.0%4.9%9.7%14.6%19.5%24.3%29.2%10100,00010,0001,000100101$30,000,000$3,000,000$300,000$30,000$3,000$300
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25%$7,5000.0%0.4%1.9%3.9%5.8%7.8%9.7%11.7%25250,00025,0002,500250253$75,000,000$7,500,000$750,000$75,000$7,500$750
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50%$15,0000.0%0.2%1.0%1.9%2.9%3.9%4.9%5.8%50500,00050,0005,000500505$150,000,000$15,000,000$1,500,000$150,000$15,000$1,500
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* This is the gross yield (pre-penalty) a validator at various issuance levels. This yield + weighted average annual appreciation is the overall ETH HODL yield. ETH 2xs then $100 of stakes goes to $200 and 50% * $150 = $75 in W.A. yield. So $275 total or 2.75x... so (1+yield) is rough multiplier on ETH appreciation for HODLers.
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* Depending on the level of penalties on how much of the required return is delivered by ETH appreciation, the reward level for good actors can be higher than numbers above.
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Large drivers
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TD/MCap Ratio
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Issuance as % of Total Supply
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