| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | AA | |
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1 | YOU | Peter | Saar | Judge Eric | Judge Will | Scott | Daniel | Replace all question marks in YOU column with numbers - the odds ratio under lab leak. If a piece of evidence is more likely under lab leak, enter a number greater than 1. If it's more likely under zoonosis, enter a number less than 1 (but still higher than 0) | |||||||||||||||||||
2 | For example, if you think it's twice as likely that a lab leak pandemic would have an insert at the furin cleavage site, compared to a zoonotic pandemic, enter 2 for the "furin cleavage site" question. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | Priors | If you think a piece of evidence doesn't matter (ie it's exactly as likely in a zoonotic and lab leak pandemic), enter 1. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | Years per natural pandemic | 30 | 20 | 20 | 160 | 66 | 20 | 20 | ----- A natural coronavirus pandemic happens once per how many years? | ||||||||||||||||||
5 | Odds of Wuhan | 0.015 | 0.03 | 0.015 | 0.025 | 0.01 | 0.015 | 0.02 | ----- Odds that a random natural coronavirus pandemic starts in Wuhan | ||||||||||||||||||
6 | Natural pandemic in Wuhan | 0.0005 | 0.0015 | 0.00075 | 0.00015625 | 0.0001515151515 | 0.00075 | 0.001 | (this gets auto-calculated) | ||||||||||||||||||
7 | Lab leak at WIV | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.01 | ----- Odds that, given that WIV is researching COVID, it leaks | ||||||||||||||||||
8 | Lab leak starts a pandemic | 0.5 | 0.33 | 0.4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | ----- Odds that, given COVID leaked, it starts a pandemic instead of fizzling out | ||||||||||||||||||
9 | Prior ratio for lab leak (derived from above) | 20 | 4.4 | 80 | 128 | 165 | 16 | 5 | (this gets auto-calculated) | ||||||||||||||||||
10 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
11 | Location in wet market | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
12 | First known cases in wet market | 0.005 | 0.00025 | 0.5 | 0.0005 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.003 | ----- The first officially confirmed cases were in the Huanan Seafood Market, and not somewhere else | ||||||||||||||||||
13 | Highest case density near wildlife stalls | 0.8 | 0.03 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.066 | ----- Surveys found the highest density of positive COVID samples near the wildlife stalls in the market | ||||||||||||||||||
14 | No intermediate host | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | ----- Nobody was able to find a potential intermediate host (like a raccoon-dog) that was positive for COVID | ||||||||||||||||||
15 | No wild animal vendor sick | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 2 | ----- The first officially confirmed case wasn't in a wild animal vendor, and nobody was able to find a sick wild animal vendor. | ||||||||||||||||||
16 | Two lineages | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | All market cases B | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 | ----- All confirmed wet market cases were Lineage B, not the seemingly-earlier Lineage A | ||||||||||||||||||
18 | First A near market | 1 | 0.02 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.1 | 1 | ----- ...but the first confirmed Lineage A cases were very close to the wet market | ||||||||||||||||||
19 | Two basal polytomies | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ----- COVID is divided into two polytomies, Lineage A and B, with the existence of intermediates disputed | ||||||||||||||||||
20 | Genetic clock | 1 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ----- The genetic clock appears to show that Lineage B has more mutations | ||||||||||||||||||
21 | Viral genome | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
22 | New furin cleavage site through 12 base insertion | 30 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 25 | 50 | 24 | ----- COVID has a novel furin cleavage site made of a 12 nucleotide insert | ||||||||||||||||||
23 | Frameshift PRRAR | 0.25 | 0.0005 | 0.25 | 1 | 0.017 | 0.25 | 0.14 | ----- COVID's furin cleavage site is an unusual frameshift-inserted PRRAR | ||||||||||||||||||
24 | Binds to human ACE2 | 1.25 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ----- COVID is surprisingly good at binding to human ACE2 | ||||||||||||||||||
25 | CGGCGG | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 7 | ----- COVID's furin cleavage site contains the unusual codons CGGCGG | ||||||||||||||||||
26 | Reasons WIV couldn't/wouldn't create COVID | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
27 | DEFUSE not happening | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.06 | 0.5 | 0.66 | 0.25 | ----- Adjustment for the fact that we don't know for sure that WIV was even doing DEFUSE-style gain of function research | ||||||||||||||||||
28 | Needed backbone virus | 0.3 | 0.001 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.01 | 0.5 | 0.16 | ----- Adjustment for no plausible backbone virus in WIV's publicly released databases | ||||||||||||||||||
29 | Needed to find it interesting | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | ----- Adjustment for the fact that WIV would need to choose to do gain-of-function on a COVID progenitor virus instead of other seemingly-more-promising candidates | ||||||||||||||||||
30 | Needed reverse genetics for it | 0.9 | 0.01 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | ----- Adjustment for the fact that WIV would need to create a reverse genetics system for the COVID progenitor | ||||||||||||||||||
31 | Live virus instead of pseudovirus | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ----- Adjustment for the fact that WIV would have to choose to use live virus instead of pseudovirus | ||||||||||||||||||
32 | FCS in S1 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ----- Adjustment for the fact that WIV would need to choose to put the furin cleavage site in the S1 area | ||||||||||||||||||
33 | Didn't publish anything | 1 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ----- Adjustment for the fact that WIV would have to do all of this without publicizing intermediate steps | ||||||||||||||||||
34 | Have to succeed at creating/culturing COVID | 1 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ----- Adjustment for the fact that WIV would need to culture COVID without creating any uncharacteristic mutations | ||||||||||||||||||
35 | Other factors | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
36 | No outbreaks in other cities | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1.33 | ----- The early stages of COVID seemed confined to Wuhan, without separate outbreaks in other cities | ||||||||||||||||||
37 | Same month as SARS | 0.9 | 0.25 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ----- COVID started in the same month as SARS, which might mean the outbreak displays normal seasonal patterns | ||||||||||||||||||
38 | Coverup would succeed | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.333 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | ----- Adjustment for the fact that China would have to cover up lab leak successfully enough to produce only the evidence we see, and no more | ||||||||||||||||||
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40 | Final ratio | 2.95245 | 0 | 532.8 | 0.000768 | 0.00350625 | 0.0594 | 0.03964004352 | (this gets auto-calculated) | ||||||||||||||||||
41 | Inverse ratio | 0.3387017562 | 4.84848E+20 | 0.001876876877 | 1302.083333 | 285.2049911 | 16.83501684 | 25.22701569 | (this gets auto-calculated) | ||||||||||||||||||
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