Jirav's Simple Coronavirus / COVID-19 Model v2
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Update available! Click here for the latest version.
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Assumptions
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Serial interval (days)
4Start Date3/17About Jirav
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Infection fatality rate
1.00%
Active Cases at Start
4,001Jirav connects your financial and operational data to let you easily explore historical operations and accurately forecast your bookings, revenues, workforce, expenses and cash flows.
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Undocumented cases factor
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Total Cases at Start
6,344
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Visit Website
Basic reproduction number (R0)
2.5
Cumulative Deaths at Start
110
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Request DemoHospitalization rate10.00%
Population of the United States
331in millions
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ICU rate5.00%
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To copy this model and test your own assumptions, go to File > Make a Copy. To copy, you must be signed in with a Google Account. If you don't have a Google Account, try Download.
Total staffed hospital beds
924,107
Starting data and actuals are sourced from Worldometer:
How to use
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Total staffed ICU beds
55,663
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Enter your assumptions in the green shaded cells
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1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435
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Date3/173/213/253/294/24/64/104/144/184/224/264/305/45/85/125/165/205/245/286/16/56/96/136/176/216/256/297/37/77/117/157/197/237/277/31
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Scenario
Actuals <—
—> Forecast
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Controls effectiveness0%5%20%25%40%50%60%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%
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^^ Enter your estimate for each interval
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R0 (natural reproductive rate)2.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.502.50
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Re (effective rate)2.502.382.001.881.501.251.000.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.750.75
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Fatality rate1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%
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New active infections24,00660,015142,536285,072534,510801,7651,002,2061,002,206751,655563,741422,806317,105237,829178,372133,779100,33475,25156,43842,32931,74723,81017,85813,39410,0467,5355,6514,2383,1792,3841,7881,3411,006755566425
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New cases requiring hospitalization2,4016,00214,25428,50753,45180,177100,221100,22175,16656,37442,28131,71123,78317,83713,37810,0337,5255,6444,2333,1752,3811,7861,3391,005754565424318238179134101765743
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New cases requiring intensive care1,2003,0017,12714,25426,72640,08850,11050,11037,58328,18721,14015,85511,8918,9196,6895,0173,7632,8222,1161,5871,191893670502377283212159119896750382821
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Total infections (active + recovered)38,06498,079240,615525,6871,060,1971,861,9622,864,1683,866,3744,618,0295,181,7705,604,5765,921,6816,159,5106,337,8826,471,6616,571,9956,647,2466,703,6846,746,0136,777,7606,801,5706,819,4286,832,8226,842,8686,850,4036,856,0546,860,2926,863,4716,865,8556,867,6436,868,9846,869,9906,870,7456,871,3116,871,736
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Total US population infected0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.6%0.9%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.7%1.8%1.9%1.9%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%
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^^ Over 70% is not realistic
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New deaths2406001,4252,8515,3458,01810,02210,0227,5175,6374,2283,1712,3781,7841,3381,003753564423317238179134100755742322418131086
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Cumulative deaths1103509502,3755,22610,57118,58928,61138,63346,15051,78756,01559,18661,56463,34864,68665,68966,44267,00667,42967,74667,98468,16368,29768,39768,47268,52968,57168,60368,62768,64568,65868,66868,67668,682
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Actuals110301102724846088108951874726,047390144789455413
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Please note:
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This relatively simple viral model has many limitations, including:
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- Does not account for reductions in infections from "herd immunity" — as a larger percentage of the population becomes infected and recovers, they can no longer themselves become reinfected.
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- All deaths are assumed to occur interval following infection. In reality, death may follow infection many intervals later.
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- A single case fatality rate is assumed for the entire model. In reality, case fatality varies widely by region and hospital capacity. For example, if a hospital runs out of ventilators, fatality rate could spike to 5% as seen in areas such as the Lombardy region of Italy.
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- The effectiveness of current controls at reducing the reproductive rate is not known and is a best guess.
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- Geographic boundaries or travel restrictions within the United States are not accounted for separately.
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- Does not account for variations in the population that make some people more resistant or immune vs. others
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