FINAL DAY YIPPEEEE.xlsx

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Z	AA	AB	AC	AE	AF	AG	AH	AI	AJ	AK	AL	AR
1	Day	Actual Dates	Vaccinated population	Vaccines supplied (Nos)	Daily Growth %	Forecast Dates	Forecast Vaccinated population	Eponential Smoothed Average (A)	Exponential Smoothed Trend (T)	Exponential Vaccine Supply Forecast (A+T)	Actual Demand Vaccines	MFE	MAD	MSE	MAPE	Tracking Signal	Exponential Forecast		EOD Forecast Possible outcomes	Real vaccinated-Possible outcome	SD	Poisson Distribution (Between 0-S values)	Normal Distribution- % above values of S2-S7										Rough Work		Probability that there is vaccination NO growth P(X=0)	Probability of growth P(X=1)	Least Squares Method
2	Saturday	16/01/21	191181	191181	0%	07/12/21	1302336519	7378492	-2563	7375929	12389410	5013481	5013481	25134990971463	40	1	Exponential Constant(A)	0.9	1301325149	-2122289	9328817	100%	10%	1286516373									D!/x!*(D-x)!		1.00	144.00
3	Sunday	17/01/21	224301	33120	-83%	08/12/21	1309709885	7375929	-2563	7373366	12389410	5016044	5016044	25160698963658	40	1	Exponential Constant(T)	0.01	1303347889	-99549	10212644	100%	9%	1303347889									(N-D)!/(n-x)!*((N-D)-(n-x)!		14950.00	2600.00
4	Monday	18/01/21	454049	229748	594%	09/12/21	1317080688	7373366	-2563	7370803	12389410	5018607	5018607	25186420096161	41	1	Average Vaccines Growth	7634922	1304654244	1206806	10789760	100%	9%	1304654244									N!/(n!*(N-n)!		27405.00	27405.00
5	Tuesday	19/01/21	674835	220786	-4%	10/12/21	1324448927	7370803	-2563	7368239	12389410	5021171	5021171	25212154368974	41	1	Average Daily Growth	108%	1300018794	-3428644	8765779	100%	10%	1300018794											55%	9%
6	Wednesday	20/01/21	806484	131649	-40%	11/12/21	1331814603	7368239	-2563	7365676	12389410	5023734	5023734	25237901782095	41	1		%	1301842122	-1605316	9553431	100%	10%	1301842122											#N/A	#N/A
7	Thursday	21/01/21	1043534	237050	80%	12/12/21	1339177716	7365676	-2563	7363113	12389410	5026297	5026297	25263662335526	41	1	MFE	5013481	1302830916	-616522	9985535	100%	9%	1302830916							N Population size			30.00	265252859812191000000000000000000	<- Last 4 observations/ 30 days/ 4 Weeks
8	Friday	22/01/21	1390592	347058	46%	13/12/21	1346538266	7363113	-2563	7360550	12389410	5028860	5028860	25289436029265	41	1	MAD	5013481	1302336519	-1110919	9769092	100%	9%	1302336519							n Sample size			4.00	24	<- No. of the week day in 30 days
9	Saturday	23/01/21	1582201	191609	-45%	14/12/21	1353896252	7360550	-2563	7357986	12389410	5031424	5031424	25315222863314	41	1	MSE	25134990971463	1288224924	-15222514	4381244	100%	22%								D No of times vaccination grows in Population			4.00	24	<- No. of days there in high growth in vaccination in Main population
10	Sunday	24/01/21	1615504	33303	-83%	15/12/21	1361251675	7357986	-2563	7355423	12389410	5033987	5033987	25341022837671	41	1	MAPE	40	10597318	2110470	3387984	0%	14%								x Probability that vaccines will grow today			1.00	1	<- Probability that today will see exponential growth in vaccinations
11	Monday	25/01/21	2023809	408305	1126%	16/12/21	1368604535	7355423	-2563	7352860	12389410	5036550	5036550	25366835952338	41	1	TS	1	9585948	1099100	3045359	0%	17%											0.00	1
12	Tuesday	26/01/21	2029480	5671	-99%	17/12/21	1375954832	7352860	-2563	7350297	12389410	5039113	5039113	25392662207313	41	1	Exponential Growth & Decay	9585948	8574578	87730	2743099	0%	21%										N-D	26.00	403291461126606000000000000
13	Wednesday	27/01/21	2355979	326499	5657%	18/12/21	1383302566	7350297	-2563	7347734	12389410	5041676	5041676	25418501602597	41	1	time in hrs:mns	1	7268223	-1218625	2436699	0%	28%										(N-D)-(n-x)	22.00	1124000727777610000000
14	Thursday	28/01/21	2928053	572074	75%	19/12/21	1390647736	7347734	-2563	7345170	12389410	5044240	5044240	25444354138191	41	1	Hypergeometric Dist. growth	9%	11903673	3416825	3872778	0%	12%										(N-D)-(n-x)	23.00	25852016738885000000000
15	Friday	29/01/21	3500027	571974	0%	20/12/21	1397990343	7345170	-2563	7342607	12389410	5046803	5046803	25470219814093	41	1	Particular day % Average	30%	9091551	604703	2891735	0%	18%										n-x	3.00	6
16	Saturday	30/01/21	3744334	244307	-57%	21/12/21	1405330387	7342607	-2563	7340044	12389410	5049366	5049366	25496098630304	41	1	Single exponential smoothing	7234475	10080345	1593497	3208570	0%	15%										N-n	26.00	403291461126606000000000000
17	Sunday	31/01/21	3758843	14509	-94%	22/12/21	1412667867	7340044	-2563	7337481	12389410	5051929	5051929	25521990586824	41	1	Least Squares forecast (Mil)	7356355	7356355	-1130493	2453715	0%	28%										D-x	3.00	6
18	Monday	01/02/21	3950156	191313	1219%	23/12/21	1420002785	7337481	-2563	7334917	12389410	5054493	5054493	25547895683654	41	1			7234475	-1252373	2430340	0%	29%
19	Tuesday	02/02/21	4138918	188762	-1%	24/12/21	1427335139	7334917	-2563	7332354	12389410	5057056	5057056	25573813920792	41	1	1303447438	MSN Data for Nov
20	Wednesday	03/02/21	4449552	310634	65%	25/12/21	1434664930	7332354	-2563	7329791	12389410	5059619	5059619	25599745298239	41	1	1110919	Difference (P16-F2)				SA	SMA 3Days	Exponential Average	SA	Per minute	Min Err						Foor the given inputs, the results are same all time.
21	Thursday	04/02/21	4959445	509893	64%	26/12/21	1441992158	7329791	-2563	7327228	12389410	5062182	5062182	25625689815995	41	1					15/11/21	-192051			4092054.00	197025	26.00	0:26:00					This is like a distribution table if you can understand what I mean
22	Friday	05/02/21	5416849	457404	-10%	27/12/21	1449316822	7327228	-2563	7324664	12389410	5064746	5064746	25651647474060	41	1	Row Labels	Sum of Daily Growth %			16/11/21	2113178			6706723.00	322916	180.00	3:00:00		Day	Previous day
23	Saturday	06/02/21	5775322	358473	-22%	28/12/21	1456638923	7324664	-2563	7322101	12389410	5067309	5067309	25677618272434	41	1	Monday	122			17/11/21	612296	844474	0	7318494.00	352372	45.00	0:45:00	1	-23%	72%	0.09
24	Sunday	07/02/21	5812362	37040	-90%	29/12/21	1463958461	7322101	-2563	7319538	12389410	5069872	5069872	25703602211117	41	1	Tuesday	8			18/11/21	579670	1101715	0	7780179.00	374601	78.00	1:18:00	2	64%	10%	0.66
25	Monday	08/02/21	6259008	446646	1106%	30/12/21	1471275436	7319538	-2563	7316975	12389410	5072435	5072435	25729599290109	41	1	Wednesday	63			19/11/21	1608838	933601	84447	4808670.00	231529	95.00	1:35:00	3	4%	78%	0.35
26	Tuesday	09/02/21	6611561	352553	-21%	31/12/21	1478589848	7316975	-2563	7314412	12389410	5074998	5074998	25755609509410	41	1	Thursday	11			20/11/21	-1620599	189303	186174	10089449.00	485788	124.00	2:04:00	4	62%	-51%	0.00
27	Wednesday	10/02/21	7017114	405553	15%	01/01/22	1485901696	7314412	-2563	7311848	12389410	5077562	5077562	25781632869020	41	1	Friday	5			21/11/21	-3339427	-1117063	260917	4372222.00	210514	480.00	8:00:00	5	#REF!
28	Thursday	11/02/21	7505010	487896	20%	02/01/22	1493210981	7311848	-2563	7309285	12389410	5080125	5080125	25807669368939	41	1	Saturday	9			22/11/21	3488036	-490663	253755	7786149.00	374889	245.00	4:05:00	6	#REF!
29	Friday	12/02/21	7967647	462637	-5%	03/01/22	1500517703	7309285	-2563	7306722	12389410	5082688	5082688	25833719009167	41	1	Sunday	-85			23/11/21	683699	277436	116674	8103834.00	390185	45.00	0:45:00	7	#REF!
30	Saturday	13/02/21	8052454	84807	-82%	04/01/22	1507821861	7306722	-2563	7304159	12389410	5085251	5085251	25859781789704	41	1	Grand Total	134			24/11/21	1450247	1873994	55940	9822019.00	472912	107.00	1:47:00	9	#REF!
31	Sunday	14/02/21	0	0	0%	05/01/22	1515123457	7304159	-2563	7301595	12389410	5087815	5087815	25885857710550	41	1					25/11/21	-391818	580709	78090	4759413.00	229157	24.00	0:24:00
32	Monday	15/02/21	8516771	464317	0%	06/01/22	1522422489	7301595	-2563	7299032	12389410	5090378	5090378	25911946771705	41	1					26/11/21	-489624	189602	257680	12229439.00	588825	33.00	0:33:00
33	Tuesday	16/02/21	8857341	340570	-27%	07/01/22	1529718958	7299032	-2563	7296469	12389410	5092941	5092941	25938048973169	41	1					27/11/21	1188166	102241	289983	1734965.00	83535	73.00	1:13:00
34	Wednesday	17/02/21	9186757	329416	-3%	08/01/22	1537012863	7296469	-2563	7293906	12389410	5095504	5095504	25964164314942	41	1					28/11/21	-4090440	-1130633	279945	10701655.00	9334221	471.00	7:51:00
35	Thursday	18/02/21	9846523	659766	100%	09/01/22	1544304206	7293906	-2563	7291342	12389410	5098068	5098068	25990292797023	41	1					29/11/21	-2327557	-1743277	262174	5297305.00	1471474	150.00	2:30:00
36	Friday	19/02/21	10449942	603419	-9%	10/01/22	1551592985	7291342	-2563	7288779	12389410	5100631	5100631	26016434419414	41	1					30/11/21	346007	-2023997	122894	8563136.00	333011	21.00	0:21:00
37	Saturday	20/02/21	10838323	388381	-36%	11/01/22	1558879201	7288779	-2563	7286216	12389410	5103194	5103194	26042589182114	41	1					01/12/21	74057	-635831	-63723	12564373.00	116337	5.00	0:05:00
38	Sunday	21/02/21	11085173	246850	-36%	12/01/22	1566162854	7286216	-2563	7283653	12389410	5105757	5105757	26068757085123	41	1					02/12/21	-642195	-74044	-259751	7885999.00	642563	44.00	0:44:00
39	Monday	22/02/21	11424094	338921	37%	13/01/22	1573443943	7283653	-2563	7281090	12389410	5108320	5108320	26094938128440	41	1					03/12/21	-682150	-416763	-297359	7367230.00	682151	44.00	0:44:00
40	Tuesday	23/02/21	11907392	483298	43%	14/01/22	1580722470	7281090	-2563	7278526	12389410	5110884	5110884	26121132312067	41	1					04/12/21	-3521297	-1615214	-275027	11310321.00	3539712	169.00	2:49:00
41	Wednesday	24/02/21	12366633	459241	-5%	15/01/22	1587998433	7278526	-2563	7275963	12389410	5113447	5113447	26147339636002	41	1					05/12/21	-7573523	-3925657	-289201	2455911.00
42	Thursday	25/02/21	13067047	700414	53%	16/01/22	1595271832	7275963	-2563	7273400	12389410	5116010	5116010	26173560100247	41	1					06/12/21	5046373	-2016149	-421802	8349232
43	Friday	26/02/21	13756940	689893	-2%	17/01/22	1602542669	7273400	-2563	7270837	12389410	5118573	5118573	26199793704801	41	1					07/12/21	-506960.00	-1011370	-772188	7719641
44	Saturday	27/02/21	14242547	485607	-30%	18/01/22	1609810942	7270837	-2563	7268273	12389410	5121137	5121137	26226040449663	41	1									8486848
45	Sunday	28/02/21	14301266	58719	-88%	19/01/22	1617076653	7268273	-2563	7265710	12389410	5123700	5123700	26252300334835	41	1					Total	-1011370	-2317725	-494397	7458776
46	Monday	01/03/21	14854136	552870	842%	20/01/22	1624339799	7265710	-2563	7263147	12389410	5126263	5126263	26278573360315	41	1
47	Tuesday	02/03/21	15620749	766613	39%	21/01/22	1631600383	7263147	-2563	7260584	12389410	5128826	5128826	26304859526105	41	1						99549
48	Wednesday	03/03/21	16616048	995299	30%	22/01/22	1638858404	7260584	-2563	7258020	12389410	5131390	5131390	26331158832203	41	1		Marked up
49	Thursday	04/03/21	18005503	1389455	40%	23/01/22												1645
50	Friday	05/03/21	19497704	1492201	7%	24/01/22											Forecasted	-1000	Difference	Actual sales
51	Saturday	06/03/21	20922344	1424640	-5%	25/01/22											645		1000	645
52	Sunday	07/03/21	20989010	66666	-95%	26/01/22												1000
53	Monday	08/03/21	23008733	2019723	2930%	27/01/22												-355
54	Tuesday	09/03/21	24367906	1359173	-33%	28/01/22												Marked down
55	Wednesday	10/03/21	25685011	1317105	-3%	29/01/22
56	Thursday	11/03/21	26164920	479909	-64%	30/01/22												290
57	Friday	12/03/21	28218457	2053537	328%	31/01/22
58	Saturday	13/03/21	29738409	1519952	-26%	01/02/22
59	Sunday	14/03/21	29908038	169629	-89%	02/02/22
60	Monday	15/03/21	32947432	3039394	1692%	03/02/22
61	Tuesday	16/03/21	35064536	2117104	-30%	04/02/22
62	Wednesday	17/03/21	37143255	2078719	-2%	05/02/22
63	Thursday	18/03/21	39339817	2196562	6%	06/02/22
64	Friday	19/03/21	42063392	2723575	24%	07/02/22
65	Saturday	20/03/21	44603841	2540449	-7%	08/02/22
66	Sunday	21/03/21	45065998	462157	-82%	09/02/22
67	Monday	22/03/21	48494594	3428596	642%	10/02/22
68	Tuesday	23/03/21	50841286	2346692	-32%	11/02/22
69	Wednesday	24/03/21	53145709	2304423	-2%	12/02/22
70	Thursday	25/03/21	55504440	2358731	2%	13/02/22
71	Friday	26/03/21	58109773	2605333	10%	14/02/22
72	Saturday	27/03/21	60269782	2160009	-17%	15/02/22
73	Sunday	28/03/21	60530435	260653	-88%	16/02/22
74	Monday	29/03/21	61113354	582919	124%	17/02/22
75	Tuesday	30/03/21	63054353	1940999	233%	18/02/22
76	Wednesday	31/03/21	65117896	2063543	6%	19/02/22
77	Thursday	01/04/21	68789138	3671242	78%	20/02/22
78	Friday	02/04/21	73054295	4265157	16%	21/02/22
79	Saturday	03/04/21	75979651	2925356	-31%	22/02/22
80	Sunday	04/04/21	79105163	3125512	7%	23/02/22
81	Monday	05/04/21	83110926	4005763	28%	24/02/22
82	Tuesday	06/04/21	87077474	3966548	-1%	25/02/22
83	Wednesday	07/04/21	90198673	3121199	-21%	26/02/22
84	Thursday	08/04/21	94334262	4135589	33%	27/02/22
85	Friday	09/04/21	98075160	3740898	-10%	28/02/22
86	Saturday	10/04/21	101595147	3519987	-6%	01/03/22
87	Sunday	11/04/21	104528565	2933418	-17%	02/03/22
88	Monday	12/04/21	108533085	4004520	37%	03/03/22
89	Tuesday	13/04/21	111179578	2646493	-34%	04/03/22
90	Wednesday	14/04/21	114493238	3313660	25%	05/03/22
91	Thursday	15/04/21	117223509	2730271	-18%	06/03/22
92	Friday	16/04/21	119937641	2714132	-1%	07/03/22
93	Saturday	17/04/21	122622590	2684949	-1%	08/03/22
94	Sunday	18/04/21	123852566	1229976	-54%	09/03/22
95	Monday	19/04/21	127129113	3276547	166%	10/03/22
96	Tuesday	20/04/21	0	0	0%	11/03/22
97	Wednesday	21/04/21	129646105	2516992	0%	12/03/22
98	Thursday	22/04/21	132754608	3108503	24%	13/03/22
99	Friday	23/04/21	0	0	0%	14/03/22
100	Saturday	24/04/21	0	0	0%	15/03/22