ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
1
The Inputs Driving the Simulations
Notes:
2
Standard deviation0.35
This Google spreadsheet models 25, 20-year-long investment outcomes and then plots investment values.
3
Nominal arithmetic mean return0.25
To use spreadsheet, enter values into cells B2, B3 and B4.
4
Investment (one time, initial)1200000
For more information refer to the Evergreen Small Business blog post that discusses this spreadsheet:
5
6
Some statistics after 20 yearsDollarsReturns
Copyright 2018, Stephen L. Nelson Inc and Evergreen Small Business blog. All Rights Reserved.
7
Mean $ 3,818,233.27 26.048%
8
Median $ 3,188,025.56 21.582%Merton share1.87755102
9
St. Dev. $ 2,772,865.58
10
Minimum $ 1,097,723.54 -1.766%
11
Maximum $ 12,489,580.77 59.762%
12
13
14
YearSimulation #1Simulation #2Simulation #3Simulation #4Simulation #5Simulation #6Simulation #7Simulation #8Simulation #9
Simulation #10
Simulation #11
Simulation #12
Simulation #13
Simulation #14
Simulation #15
Simulation #16
Simulation #17
Simulation #18
Simulation #19
Simulation #20
Simulation #21
Simulation #22
Simulation #23
Simulation #24
Simulation #25
15
1 934,919 1,897,064 1,150,302 1,447,164 1,660,079 1,999,140 1,623,452 1,037,206 2,050,732 1,170,367 1,168,995 1,928,190 2,104,562 1,775,003 1,747,290 1,540,130 1,434,372 1,042,277 1,530,805 1,360,303 1,515,996 1,310,672 1,385,376 969,339 1,187,601
16
2 706,817 1,914,445 1,074,474 1,519,885 2,123,865 2,385,250 2,174,918 1,124,855 2,910,944 1,090,241 1,809,817 1,674,564 2,147,632 4,452,191 2,533,305 2,203,919 2,265,013 938,752 1,814,711 604,379 2,419,239 2,547,336 1,268,545 1,225,342 1,905,898
17
3 1,211,462 1,369,333 1,476,370 1,772,649 3,810,968 2,909,772 2,558,917 996,930 4,317,023 1,876,802 1,475,044 2,616,139 2,564,257 4,900,203 3,409,607 2,820,982 2,806,699 1,348,523 2,128,540 613,170 3,368,694 2,479,704 1,624,736 2,018,430 1,846,383
18
4 2,299,146 1,743,369 2,189,464 2,775,560 4,236,944 3,008,470 1,929,156 1,636,631 5,085,342 2,677,793 1,261,260 3,913,264 2,779,693 9,292,188 4,231,469 4,624,006 4,898,269 2,539,098 1,955,898 836,393 2,920,646 1,533,504 1,095,750 1,465,734 2,760,865
19
5 2,177,476 3,392,187 2,970,652 2,541,299 6,703,489 5,474,335 3,188,026 1,407,122 10,164,072 4,300,396 1,097,724 4,955,589 1,680,071 12,489,581 4,701,720 3,960,904 5,394,173 2,317,328 3,314,509 1,182,476 2,135,120 1,374,399 1,353,507 1,954,786 5,224,892
20
6 1,690,986 5,111,951 3,866,619 2,244,260 10,415,122 4,885,079 4,301,776 1,831,863 20,014,861 5,111,535 1,008,537 7,789,846 2,478,926 13,241,926 6,211,430 4,620,894 11,034,684 1,943,540 4,522,832 1,080,236 2,537,342 1,519,739 941,704 1,896,050 4,757,570
21
7 1,004,176 4,931,616 7,075,641 2,878,899 6,968,449 7,808,979 2,331,732 3,493,268 18,124,127 6,979,824 1,150,656 11,704,861 2,155,559 5,422,570 7,893,417 4,016,422 15,579,282 3,103,552 4,906,970 1,177,003 3,020,383 2,448,265 916,416 1,857,388 3,308,871
22
8 1,695,920 3,971,311 12,039,861 3,384,915 11,960,816 7,049,256 2,413,404 4,692,118 27,693,869 7,013,589 1,206,935 13,579,689 2,894,899 6,040,970 9,767,286 3,390,159 16,098,805 4,508,050 1,857,145 1,682,600 2,489,106 3,994,258 1,421,827 2,809,332 2,094,280
23
9 2,384,232 5,753,335 15,180,660 4,173,985 13,541,197 10,317,015 2,927,105 7,584,905 37,597,349 5,384,185 1,454,523 12,892,840 4,039,321 10,153,544 9,908,814 3,888,476 21,158,333 5,551,058 2,899,086 2,288,889 2,503,818 3,532,981 2,023,696 5,075,799 2,877,149
24
10 3,491,233 5,128,537 11,282,905 3,901,109 13,075,867 20,087,087 3,299,165 3,140,236 53,025,395 7,704,428 1,697,228 19,156,074 2,848,119 11,652,914 13,574,316 4,572,186 23,972,870 7,545,988 3,403,868 2,929,932 3,670,894 4,194,658 1,787,397 6,063,584 2,147,896
25
11 3,801,705 6,086,170 8,669,421 3,441,221 17,431,036 26,696,444 3,344,395 3,886,616 43,608,800 12,418,647 1,736,863 14,996,661 4,018,967 18,782,414 19,639,200 6,875,488 13,813,434 9,905,293 5,275,341 3,836,483 2,386,209 5,277,706 2,962,360 6,700,671 3,027,563
26
12 4,735,604 10,254,530 5,926,958 3,799,590 25,908,122 28,324,030 4,364,120 4,032,377 58,362,308 16,673,709 2,063,746 18,403,279 6,006,996 27,519,701 27,537,723 7,468,886 14,237,392 13,191,044 7,117,199 6,690,754 4,431,969 4,758,356 4,067,870 8,981,557 4,745,932
27
13 5,610,365 8,736,986 8,051,042 5,335,006 22,504,072 47,236,496 5,064,899 5,009,850 64,638,912 15,837,886 1,498,084 39,173,684 10,592,290 46,628,911 23,388,060 7,763,963 16,478,548 8,406,259 7,885,612 4,200,724 9,224,385 4,832,195 6,278,540 9,910,974 4,818,307
28
14 6,946,647 8,220,505 12,385,568 7,612,318 30,049,726 24,202,285 2,491,707 3,988,458 51,092,083 18,164,398 1,545,900 44,234,897 13,806,108 53,435,047 29,707,184 9,213,048 18,393,967 18,335,197 10,956,598 2,879,360 13,071,498 6,177,970 10,623,239 13,975,819 6,880,773
29
15 7,411,911 11,891,856 16,512,156 11,589,846 29,038,284 38,621,209 4,454,287 4,585,227 60,470,155 24,008,684 2,518,063 51,266,116 9,292,391 63,843,694 30,928,540 11,578,905 8,235,729 26,163,732 11,768,161 2,798,616 6,313,175 11,748,454 11,753,140 18,479,912 8,314,997
30
16 9,808,071 10,869,619 21,973,363 15,819,816 28,749,707 41,269,714 6,044,133 5,749,849 85,069,604 41,937,136 3,407,014 62,888,238 7,682,583 69,075,590 40,966,372 12,528,370 9,428,222 44,005,719 12,540,719 3,716,862 7,301,615 6,944,312 15,220,705 17,388,850 7,058,716
31
17 7,626,938 17,276,005 32,002,777 27,140,505 46,877,676 32,321,699 8,169,231 3,893,139 119,226,054 26,901,458 4,571,332 84,209,363 4,508,792 94,677,471 46,893,339 16,492,372 12,612,555 51,455,236 17,401,875 3,294,111 9,673,501 11,143,188 23,854,022 13,067,122 8,395,879
32
18 8,609,943 27,190,846 26,474,226 48,052,393 48,090,199 39,018,958 8,761,822 3,942,142 168,140,298 33,107,241 7,149,594 110,090,158 6,674,384 132,070,302 52,390,731 15,603,136 10,729,029 64,539,876 20,459,253 1,886,650 11,940,896 8,838,391 24,333,573 11,722,392 13,611,056
33
19 6,198,369 45,764,201 28,410,415 63,249,348 85,661,636 51,757,177 11,119,077 1,859,037 236,940,129 54,191,338 6,730,056 135,991,197 6,922,500 174,286,635 33,646,347 21,214,976 13,780,638 80,601,281 21,160,040 3,016,521 11,075,944 12,244,384 24,467,343 18,017,876 14,534,268
34
20 10,648,073 62,921,524 33,333,480 65,048,269 98,679,719 95,402,751 15,702,018 2,586,998 369,783,558 66,785,841 6,591,288 202,200,934 7,666,451 276,528,246 52,922,150 26,284,320 15,338,921 50,218,826 16,153,770 3,505,640 10,271,056 23,696,947 37,684,265 21,706,249 15,448,476
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100