SmallBusinessMonteCarloSimulation
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The Inputs Driving the Simulations
Notes:
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Standard deviation0.4
This Google spreadsheet models 25, 20-year-long investment outcomes and then plots investment values.
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Nominal arithmetic mean return
0.2
To use spreadsheet, enter values into cells B2, B3 and B4.
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Investment (one time, initial)25000
For more information refer to the Evergreen Small Business blog post that discusses this spreadsheet:
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Some statistics after 20 years
DollarsReturns
Copyright 2018, Stephen L. Nelson Inc and Evergreen Small Business blog. All Rights Reserved.
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Mean $ 743,947.78 18.490%
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Median $ 346,971.98 14.056%
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St. Dev. $ 966,645.66
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Minimum $ 275.96 -20.174%
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Maximum $ 3,244,357.95 27.544%
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Year
Simulation #1
Simulation #2
Simulation #3
Simulation #4
Simulation #5
Simulation #6
Simulation #7
Simulation #8
Simulation #9
Simulation #10
Simulation #11
Simulation #12
Simulation #13
Simulation #14
Simulation #15
Simulation #16
Simulation #17
Simulation #18
Simulation #19
Simulation #20
Simulation #21
Simulation #22
Simulation #23
Simulation #24
Simulation #25
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1 16,548 32,363 34,121 32,724 32,171 16,500 13,499 38,445 40,023 27,544 42,822 29,020 22,514 31,313 35,994 18,934 31,311 41,819 23,214 11,950 41,141 23,568 36,803 27,968 29,040
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2 17,041 34,616 47,078 49,624 50,706 19,099 18,103 44,917 52,857 33,104 51,814 25,545 28,893 28,592 41,002 12,964 42,073 34,637 29,918 17,997 52,554 22,780 77,808 16,437 34,768
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3 19,142 14,001 66,974 66,348 30,926 26,902 22,365 49,717 84,409 29,184 64,849 24,432 41,369 33,439 51,551 21,486 39,832 35,038 32,872 21,998 61,870 22,353 67,474 23,985 13,307
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4 23,364 28,168 131,300 9,566 31,797 29,793 15,226 88,409 126,545 8,589 80,912 21,851 67,860 43,636 41,379 26,050 22,532 49,611 54,825 35,399 83,229 27,731 88,574 20,377 14,068
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5 24,227 26,546 229,273 12,578 62,213 11,640 14,986 148,598 118,964 10,556 137,990 12,089 38,433 44,206 37,139 22,608 32,502 55,099 50,079 42,315 114,190 32,204 67,702 21,659 17,150
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6 17,973 28,454 143,485 23,225 89,956 19,970 12,880 114,680 118,325 13,844 107,215 18,890 40,456 41,534 34,950 13,300 39,860 59,273 47,981 40,939 120,352 35,889 60,871 23,737 7,394
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7 26,833 62,875 200,882 35,772 109,629 27,392 20,940 121,505 126,070 24,615 116,284 32,447 57,152 47,848 67,315 9,089 59,758 41,062 47,934 53,995 168,732 35,714 95,371 37,021 7,544
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8 36,495 76,958 283,183 28,602 93,803 47,501 44,186 223,755 107,717 37,480 122,342 30,825 74,775 70,789 82,679 6,048 71,645 50,911 86,782 43,080 283,298 40,315 51,855 33,444 8,293
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9 68,694 80,845 277,926 22,984 72,353 38,482 46,950 410,940 35,284 28,392 202,800 40,279 91,415 72,934 97,002 5,336 96,564 49,502 134,196 85,519 270,946 29,151 90,028 37,515 9,092
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10 76,059 138,942 396,368 21,461 112,178 30,040 35,989 397,631 51,164 27,499 129,377 39,130 147,350 80,041 143,287 7,106 207,299 41,440 70,525 65,417 313,901 58,296 113,977 31,470 9,032
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11 101,927 263,450 490,782 23,424 130,309 17,732 52,939 488,262 73,099 23,659 101,448 59,835 40,820 82,190 99,898 10,191 205,854 41,690 114,433 77,738 343,868 77,401 24,125 42,307 11,737
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12 111,776 412,466 456,952 30,592 157,892 21,480 62,689 770,152 99,734 17,433 165,468 34,717 35,183 146,848 94,573 16,196 237,533 82,229 226,030 124,461 582,223 54,284 29,248 52,604 10,959
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13 167,538 320,485 517,639 30,283 275,755 19,771 73,465 749,840 125,863 21,111 273,776 47,743 22,732 149,129 142,389 26,230 309,314 160,405 238,960 223,665 885,203 77,320 35,698 65,119 7,909
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14 283,550 443,548 839,068 40,151 247,639 14,314 114,277 880,354 171,548 41,273 265,439 77,829 33,082 124,888 214,120 26,341 402,045 238,915 393,698 168,050 441,930 69,116 5,654 70,486 5,373
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15 269,542 727,296 1,573,913 57,810 413,020 21,329 89,772 1,621,347 167,571 67,955 375,178 122,887 46,357 77,662 229,004 24,061 440,076 317,399 739,083 116,893 565,376 70,780 5,212 72,596 3,520
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16 253,248 754,540 1,231,749 68,442 508,460 33,156 131,544 1,096,850 202,969 67,902 564,160 218,687 45,506 111,879 404,104 19,213 777,899 350,038 755,201 125,242 460,480 89,447 5,171 112,508 7,055
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17 120,519 1,207,776 1,699,103 86 485,831 26,587 73,135 1,497,578 307,666 63,804 1,142,755 219,599 53,669 47,264 845,086 38,029 1,119,965 227,179 1,305,578 225,945 658,681 132,752 7,296 114,852 7,365
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18 104,484 1,910,737 1,889,856 131 619,209 14,982 121,071 533,762 445,355 81,966 1,927,111 345,137 65,999 37,039 707,694 24,858 850,337 455,210 1,507,928 354,129 694,144 168,127 11,882 69,780 15,458
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19 170,586 1,767,193 2,491,433 171 903,655 27,677 148,081 349,675 615,603 116,295 2,570,319 385,679 22,703 35,668 861,877 39,183 1,225,069 721,199 2,482,279 452,019 616,233 100,993 19,310 24,345 20,045
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20 170,099 3,244,358 2,850,982 276 1,029,325 31,127 187,371 398,097 986,983 96,581 1,324,855 350,668 31,533 36,631 1,220,804 26,889 987,992 1,586,953 2,808,773 346,972 665,936 144,114 27,171 22,848 21,356
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