ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACAD
1
datet = day numberP = real number of cases to train estimatedPP = real number of cases for inference(dP/dt)P = r(1 - P/K) [All data points](dP/dt)P = r(1 - P/K) [Exclude first 5]-r/K = m = SLOPE((dP/dt)/P, P)r = b = INTERCEPT((dP/dt)/P, P)K = -r/SLOPELinear Regression Typeestimated P, P0 = 1312estimated P, P0 = 2015P0Total Error for P0P0 that minimizes Total ErrorMin Total Errorestimated P, optimal P0estimated dPestimated P - real Pabs(estimated P - real P)/real P
2
1/23/20200844844-0.00000889145610.368694088241466.10905All data points13122015131274,430,918.8916343,157,954.9516347900.9360189573
3
1/24/20201131246813120.4462652439-0.0000054204223330.277034736951109.43758Exclude first 517172625131373,943,823.3021345008220.626384344
4
1/25/20202201570320150.369478908222413407131473,458,713.5527786447630.3786276139
5
1/26/20203280178628010.457693680829154401131572,975,585.9936028248010.2860361224
6
1/27/202044579177845790.355972919937775651131672,494,436.9746471045680.01495738212
7
1/28/202056061148260610.26703514270.267035142748687201131772,015,262.8359581311-1030.01698033926
8
1/29/202067816175578160.24053224160.240532241662329090131871,538,059.9475781620-2380.0304527123
9
1/30/202079821200598210.21036554320.2103655432791411348131971,062,824.6895451967-2760.02808304956
10
1/31/20208119482127119480.1979410780.197941078994813979132070,589,553.41118842338-640.005383222779
11
2/1/20209145512603145510.18689437150.18689437151235616961132170,118,242.53145942710430.002949337645
12
2/2/202010173872836173870.17469948810.17469948811513220232132269,648,888.431764430502570.01479407506
13
2/3/202011206263239206260.17371278970.17371278971823923696132369,181,487.522096633223400.01648520555
14
2/4/202012245533927245530.15578544370.15578544372160027230132468,716,036.21244563490-970.003943338894
15
2/5/202013282763723282760.12176404020.12176404022510830701132568,252,530.92279883532-2880.010189519
16
2/6/202014314393163314390.10496517060.10496517062863333984132667,790,968.08314283440-110.0003430709326
17
2/7/202015348763437348760.087639064110.087639064113204336983132767,331,344.12346583229-2180.006263512244
18
2/8/202016375522676375520.075588517260.075588517263522239634132866,873,655.49375852927330.0008797497732
19
2/9/202017405533001405533808741911132966,417,898.64401562571-3970.009784000361
20
2/10/202018430994058943819133065,964,070.03423522196-7470.01732080204
21
2/11/202019451704271745385133165,512,166.14441841832-9860.02182160046
22
2/12/202020602804448446650133265,062,183.44456821498-145980.2421688943
23
2/13/2020214592547656133364,614,118.41468871205
24
2/14/2020224708048448133464,167,967.5547843956
25
2/15/2020234799649066133563,723,727.3548595751
26
2/16/2020244871449546133663,281,394.3449180586
27
2/17/2020254927349915133762,840,965.0149634453
28
2/18/2020264970550199133862,402,435.9149983349
29
2/19/2020275003850416133961,965,803.5650251268
30
2/20/2020285029350582134061,531,064.5050456205
31
2/21/2020295048850709134161,098,215.2950613157
32
2/22/2020305063750805134260,667,252.4750732119
33
2/23/2020315075150878134360,238,172.615082391
34
2/24/2020325083750934134459,810,972.285089269
35
2/25/2020335090350976134559,385,648.075094452
36
2/26/2020345095251009134658,962,196.565098440
37
2/27/2020355099051033134758,540,614.345101430
38
2/28/2020365101951051134858,120,898.025103723
39
2/29/2020375104151065134957,703,044.215105517
40
3/1/2020385105851076135057,287,049.525106813
41
3/2/2020395107051084135156,872,910.595107810
42
3/3/2020405108051090135256,460,624.04510868
43
3/4/2020415108751095135356,050,186.51510916
44
3/5/2020425109251098135455,641,594.66510964
45
3/6/2020435109651101135555,234,845.14510993
46
3/7/2020445110051103135654,829,934.61511023
47
3/8/2020455110251105135754,426,859.75511032
48
3/9/2020465110451106135854,025,617.23511051
49
135953,626,203.73
50
136053,228,615.96
51
136152,832,850.61
52
136252,438,904.40
53
136352,046,774.02
54
136451,656,456.22
55
136551,267,947.71
56
136650,881,245.25
57
136750,496,345.56
58
136850,113,245.40
59
136949,731,941.54
60
137049,352,430.74
61
137148,974,709.76
62
137248,598,775.41
63
137348,224,624.45
64
137447,852,253.69
65
137547,481,659.93
66
137647,112,839.97
67
137746,745,790.64
68
137846,380,508.77
69
137946,016,991.16
70
138045,655,234.68
71
138145,295,236.16
72
138244,936,992.45
73
138344,580,500.42
74
138444,225,756.92
75
138543,872,758.83
76
138643,521,503.03
77
138743,171,986.41
78
138842,824,205.86
79
138942,478,158.28
80
139042,133,840.57
81
139141,791,249.66
82
139241,450,382.45
83
139341,111,235.89
84
139440,773,806.90
85
139540,438,092.42
86
139640,104,089.41
87
139739,771,794.81
88
139839,441,205.59
89
139939,112,318.71
90
140038,785,131.15
91
140138,459,639.90
92
140238,135,841.93
93
140337,813,734.24
94
140437,493,313.84
95
140537,174,577.73
96
140636,857,522.93
97
140736,542,146.45
98
140836,228,445.32
99
140935,916,416.58
100
141035,606,057.27