Coronavirus Logistic Growth

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U
1	date	t = day number	P = real number of cases to train estimate	dP	P = real number of cases for inference	(dP/dt)P = r(1 - P/K) [All data points]	(dP/dt)P = r(1 - P/K) [Exclude first 5]	-r/K = m = SLOPE((dP/dt)/P, P)	r = b = INTERCEPT((dP/dt)/P, P)	K = -r/SLOPE	Linear Regression Type	estimated P, P0 = 1312	estimated P, P0 = 2015	P0	Total Error for P0	P0 that minimizes Total Error	Min Total Error	estimated P, optimal P0	estimated dP	estimated P - real P	abs(estimated P - real P)/real P

2	1/23/2020	0	844		844			-0.0000088914561	0.3686940882	41466.10905	All data points	1312	2015	1312	74,430,918.89	1634	3,157,954.95	1634		790	0.9360189573
3	1/24/2020	1	1312	468	1312	0.4462652439		-0.000005420422333	0.2770347369	51109.43758	Exclude first 5	1717	2625	1313	73,943,823.30			2134	500	822	0.626384344
4	1/25/2020	2	2015	703	2015	0.3694789082						2241	3407	1314	73,458,713.55			2778	644	763	0.3786276139
5	1/26/2020	3	2801	786	2801	0.4576936808						2915	4401	1315	72,975,585.99			3602	824	801	0.2860361224
6	1/27/2020	4	4579	1778	4579	0.3559729199						3777	5651	1316	72,494,436.97			4647	1045	68	0.01495738212
7	1/28/2020	5	6061	1482	6061	0.2670351427	0.2670351427					4868	7201	1317	72,015,262.83			5958	1311	-103	0.01698033926
8	1/29/2020	6	7816	1755	7816	0.2405322416	0.2405322416					6232	9090	1318	71,538,059.94			7578	1620	-238	0.0304527123
9	1/30/2020	7	9821	2005	9821	0.2103655432	0.2103655432					7914	11348	1319	71,062,824.68			9545	1967	-276	0.02808304956
10	1/31/2020	8	11948	2127	11948	0.197941078	0.197941078					9948	13979	1320	70,589,553.41			11884	2338	-64	0.005383222779
11	2/1/2020	9	14551	2603	14551	0.1868943715	0.1868943715					12356	16961	1321	70,118,242.53			14594	2710	43	0.002949337645
12	2/2/2020	10	17387	2836	17387	0.1746994881	0.1746994881					15132	20232	1322	69,648,888.43			17644	3050	257	0.01479407506
13	2/3/2020	11	20626	3239	20626	0.1737127897	0.1737127897					18239	23696	1323	69,181,487.52			20966	3322	340	0.01648520555
14	2/4/2020	12	24553	3927	24553	0.1557854437	0.1557854437					21600	27230	1324	68,716,036.21			24456	3490	-97	0.003943338894
15	2/5/2020	13	28276	3723	28276	0.1217640402	0.1217640402					25108	30701	1325	68,252,530.92			27988	3532	-288	0.010189519
16	2/6/2020	14	31439	3163	31439	0.1049651706	0.1049651706					28633	33984	1326	67,790,968.08			31428	3440	-11	0.0003430709326
17	2/7/2020	15	34876	3437	34876	0.08763906411	0.08763906411					32043	36983	1327	67,331,344.12			34658	3229	-218	0.006263512244
18	2/8/2020	16	37552	2676	37552	0.07558851726	0.07558851726					35222	39634	1328	66,873,655.49			37585	2927	33	0.0008797497732
19	2/9/2020	17	40553	3001	40553							38087	41911	1329	66,417,898.64			40156	2571	-397	0.009784000361
20	2/10/2020	18			43099							40589	43819	1330	65,964,070.03			42352	2196	-747	0.01732080204
21	2/11/2020	19			45170							42717	45385	1331	65,512,166.14			44184	1832	-986	0.02182160046
22	2/12/2020	20			60280							44484	46650	1332	65,062,183.44			45682	1498	-14598	0.2421688943
23	2/13/2020	21										45925	47656	1333	64,614,118.41			46887	1205
24	2/14/2020	22										47080	48448	1334	64,167,967.55			47843	956
25	2/15/2020	23										47996	49066	1335	63,723,727.35			48595	751
26	2/16/2020	24										48714	49546	1336	63,281,394.34			49180	586
27	2/17/2020	25										49273	49915	1337	62,840,965.01			49634	453
28	2/18/2020	26										49705	50199	1338	62,402,435.91			49983	349
29	2/19/2020	27										50038	50416	1339	61,965,803.56			50251	268
30	2/20/2020	28										50293	50582	1340	61,531,064.50			50456	205
31	2/21/2020	29										50488	50709	1341	61,098,215.29			50613	157
32	2/22/2020	30										50637	50805	1342	60,667,252.47			50732	119
33	2/23/2020	31										50751	50878	1343	60,238,172.61			50823	91
34	2/24/2020	32										50837	50934	1344	59,810,972.28			50892	69
35	2/25/2020	33										50903	50976	1345	59,385,648.07			50944	52
36	2/26/2020	34										50952	51009	1346	58,962,196.56			50984	40
37	2/27/2020	35										50990	51033	1347	58,540,614.34			51014	30
38	2/28/2020	36										51019	51051	1348	58,120,898.02			51037	23
39	2/29/2020	37										51041	51065	1349	57,703,044.21			51055	17
40	3/1/2020	38										51058	51076	1350	57,287,049.52			51068	13
41	3/2/2020	39										51070	51084	1351	56,872,910.59			51078	10
42	3/3/2020	40										51080	51090	1352	56,460,624.04			51086	8
43	3/4/2020	41										51087	51095	1353	56,050,186.51			51091	6
44	3/5/2020	42										51092	51098	1354	55,641,594.66			51096	4
45	3/6/2020	43										51096	51101	1355	55,234,845.14			51099	3
46	3/7/2020	44										51100	51103	1356	54,829,934.61			51102	3
47	3/8/2020	45										51102	51105	1357	54,426,859.75			51103	2
48	3/9/2020	46										51104	51106	1358	54,025,617.23			51105	1
49														1359	53,626,203.73
50														1360	53,228,615.96
51														1361	52,832,850.61
52														1362	52,438,904.40
53														1363	52,046,774.02
54														1364	51,656,456.22
55														1365	51,267,947.71
56														1366	50,881,245.25
57														1367	50,496,345.56
58														1368	50,113,245.40
59														1369	49,731,941.54
60														1370	49,352,430.74
61														1371	48,974,709.76
62														1372	48,598,775.41
63														1373	48,224,624.45
64														1374	47,852,253.69
65														1375	47,481,659.93
66														1376	47,112,839.97
67														1377	46,745,790.64
68														1378	46,380,508.77
69														1379	46,016,991.16
70														1380	45,655,234.68
71														1381	45,295,236.16
72														1382	44,936,992.45
73														1383	44,580,500.42
74														1384	44,225,756.92
75														1385	43,872,758.83
76														1386	43,521,503.03
77														1387	43,171,986.41
78														1388	42,824,205.86
79														1389	42,478,158.28
80														1390	42,133,840.57
81														1391	41,791,249.66
82														1392	41,450,382.45
83														1393	41,111,235.89
84														1394	40,773,806.90
85														1395	40,438,092.42
86														1396	40,104,089.41
87														1397	39,771,794.81
88														1398	39,441,205.59
89														1399	39,112,318.71
90														1400	38,785,131.15
91														1401	38,459,639.90
92														1402	38,135,841.93
93														1403	37,813,734.24
94														1404	37,493,313.84
95														1405	37,174,577.73
96														1406	36,857,522.93
97														1407	36,542,146.45
98														1408	36,228,445.32
99														1409	35,916,416.58
100														1410	35,606,057.27