Partisan ranking of MA State Representative districts
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ABCDEFGHIJKL
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Projected Dem MarginProbability of Dem Win
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Rnk
DistrictIncumbentObama MarginWarren MarginDem Inc.Open SeatGOP Inc.Dem Inc.Open SeatGOP Inc.
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16th SuffolkRussell E. Holmes91.886.390.477.965.4100.0%100.0%100.0%
4
25th Suffolk
Evandro C. Carvalho
90.385.089.176.664.1100.0%100.0%100.0%
5
311th SuffolkElizabeth A. Malia88.682.087.675.162.5100.0%100.0%100.0%
6
47th SuffolkGloria L. Fox85.977.585.372.760.2100.0%100.0%100.0%
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525th MiddlesexMarjorie C. Decker80.973.980.868.355.7100.0%100.0%100.0%
8
610th HampdenOpen (was Rivera)80.269.680.267.755.2100.0%100.0%100.0%
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712th SuffolkDan Cullinane79.972.479.967.454.9100.0%100.0%100.0%
10
811th HampdenBenjamin Swan75.565.576.163.551.0100.0%100.0%99.9%
11
915th SuffolkJeffrey Sanchez74.766.275.462.950.3100.0%100.0%99.9%
12
1027th MiddlesexDenise Provost73.863.374.662.149.5100.0%100.0%99.9%
13
1126th MiddlesexTimothy Toomey Jr.73.562.974.361.849.2100.0%100.0%99.9%
14
1216th EssexMarcos A. Devers72.964.673.861.348.7100.0%100.0%99.9%
15
139th SuffolkByron Rushing68.057.169.557.044.4100.0%99.9%99.8%
16
143rd HampshireEllen S. Story67.654.369.156.644.0100.0%99.9%99.8%
17
159th PlymouthMichael D. Brady63.351.665.452.840.3100.0%99.9%99.6%
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1615th NorfolkFrank Israel Smizik62.652.464.752.239.7100.0%99.9%99.6%
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1717th SuffolkKevin G. Honan60.946.363.250.738.1100.0%99.9%99.5%
20
1813th BristolAntonio F.D. Cabral60.447.462.850.337.7100.0%99.9%99.5%
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1914th SuffolkAngelo M. Scaccia59.648.962.149.637.0100.0%99.8%99.4%
22
2034th Middlesex
Open (was Sciortino)
59.544.762.049.536.9100.0%99.8%99.4%
23
2129th MiddlesexJonathan Hecht59.346.961.849.336.8100.0%99.8%99.4%
24
223rd Berkshire
Tricia Farley-Bouvier
58.945.961.549.036.4100.0%99.8%99.4%
25
237th BristolAlan Silvia56.742.559.547.034.599.9%99.8%99.2%
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241st BerkshireGailanne M. Cariddi55.141.258.245.633.199.9%99.7%99.1%
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255th HampdenAaron Vega54.839.857.945.432.899.9%99.7%99.0%
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261st HampshirePeter V. Kocot54.843.857.845.332.899.9%99.7%99.0%
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2713th SuffolkDaniel J. Hunt53.040.256.343.731.299.9%99.6%98.8%
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2815th WorcesterMary S. Keefe52.638.556.043.430.999.9%99.6%98.7%
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2918th SuffolkMichael J. Moran52.637.555.943.430.999.9%99.6%98.7%
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301st FranklinStephen Kulik49.736.253.340.828.399.9%99.5%98.2%
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319th HampdenSean Curran49.734.653.340.828.399.9%99.5%98.2%
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3210th EssexRobert F. Fennell49.634.353.340.728.299.8%99.5%98.2%
35
331st SuffolkCarlo P. Basile49.335.853.040.528.099.8%99.5%98.1%
36
348th SuffolkJay Livingstone49.036.152.840.227.799.8%99.4%98.1%
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354th Berkshire"Smitty" Pignatelli48.637.052.439.927.399.8%99.4%98.0%
38
362nd BerkshirePaul W. Mark48.231.652.139.527.099.8%99.4%97.9%
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3711th MiddlesexKay S. Khan47.435.851.338.826.399.8%99.3%97.7%
40
3811th EssexOpen (was Walsh)46.831.050.838.325.899.8%99.3%97.5%
41
3918th MiddlesexKevin J. Murphy46.727.350.738.225.699.8%99.3%97.4%
42
402nd SuffolkDaniel Ryan45.528.549.737.224.699.8%99.1%97.1%
43
4128th MiddlesexWayne Matewsky44.828.749.036.524.099.7%99.1%96.8%
44
4212th MiddlesexRuth B. Balser44.832.749.036.524.099.7%99.1%96.8%
45
4333rd MiddlesexChristopher Fallon44.529.648.836.323.799.7%99.0%96.7%
46
443rd SuffolkAaron Michlewitz44.428.248.736.223.799.7%99.0%96.7%
47
4524th MiddlesexDavid M. Rogers44.433.948.736.223.799.7%99.0%96.7%
48
4623rd MiddlesexSean Garballey42.830.947.334.822.399.7%98.8%96.0%
49
4716th WorcesterDaniel Donahue41.725.746.333.821.299.6%98.6%95.4%
50
4817th EssexFrank A. Moran40.828.545.533.020.599.6%98.5%95.0%
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497th EssexJohn D. Keenan40.821.545.533.020.599.6%98.5%95.0%
52
506th BristolCarole Fiola39.725.744.632.019.599.5%98.3%94.3%
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5111th BristolRobert M. Koczera37.123.442.329.717.299.3%97.7%92.4%
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5210th MiddlesexJohn J. Lawn Jr.36.820.442.029.516.999.3%97.6%92.1%
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5335th MiddlesexPaul J. Donato Sr.36.319.841.629.016.599.3%97.5%91.6%
56
54
Bstble, Dukes, Ntct
Timothy R. Madden34.221.539.727.214.799.0%96.8%89.5%
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552nd HampshireJohn W. Scibak32.817.038.526.013.598.9%96.2%87.9%
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567th MiddlesexTom Sannicandro32.614.238.425.813.398.9%96.1%87.6%
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5715th MiddlesexJay R. Kaufman32.519.838.225.713.298.8%96.0%87.4%
60
5817th MiddlesexDavid M. Nangle30.711.336.724.211.698.6%95.2%85.0%
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597th NorfolkWalter F. Timilty Jr.30.416.536.423.911.398.5%95.0%84.4%
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6017th WorcesterJohn J. Binienda Sr.30.013.336.023.510.998.4%94.7%83.7%
63
6110th Suffolk
Edward F. Coppinger
29.514.135.623.110.598.3%94.4%83.0%
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626th MiddlesexChris Walsh29.412.635.523.010.598.3%94.4%82.8%
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639th BristolChristopher Markey29.414.135.523.010.498.3%94.4%82.7%
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6413th WorcesterJohn Mahoney Jr.29.012.435.222.610.198.2%94.1%82.1%
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6514th WorcesterJames J. O'Day28.611.234.822.39.798.2%93.8%81.3%
68
6616th SuffolkRoselee Vincent28.514.034.822.29.798.1%93.8%81.3%
69
6719th SuffolkRobert A. DeLeo28.512.834.722.29.798.1%93.8%81.2%
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681st NorfolkBruce J. Ayers28.211.534.421.99.498.1%93.5%80.6%
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698th HampdenJoseph F. Wagner27.27.233.621.08.597.8%92.8%78.7%
72
709th MiddlesexThomas M. Stanley26.110.332.620.17.697.5%91.9%76.5%
73
715th EssexAnn-M. Ferrante26.04.032.620.07.597.5%91.8%76.2%
74
728th BristolPaul Schmid III25.411.932.019.56.997.3%91.2%74.9%
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732nd NorfolkTackey Chan25.07.531.719.16.697.2%90.8%74.0%
76
7410th Plymouth
Christine E. Canavan
24.99.931.619.16.597.2%90.8%73.8%
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7514th MiddlesexCory Atkins24.910.731.619.06.597.2%90.7%73.7%
78
764th SuffolkNick Collins24.12.930.918.45.896.9%89.9%71.9%
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775th MiddlesexDavid Paul Linsky21.82.928.816.33.895.9%87.1%65.9%
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7813th MiddlesexThomas P. Conroy21.55.428.616.13.595.8%86.7%65.2%
81
794th BarnstableSarah K. Peake20.59.127.715.22.695.3%85.3%62.4%
82
805th BristolPatricia A. Haddad19.54.426.814.31.894.7%83.7%59.5%
83
813rd Worcester
Stephen L. DiNatale
19.40.626.714.21.794.6%83.5%59.2%
84
828th EssexLori A. Ehrlich19.43.226.714.21.694.6%83.4%59.1%
85
831st EssexMichael A. Costello19.3-1.226.614.11.694.6%83.3%58.8%
86
8432nd MiddlesexPaul A. Brodeur18.7-0.126.113.61.194.2%82.4%57.2%
87
856th EssexJerald A. Parisella18.7-1.226.113.61.094.2%82.3%57.1%
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863rd EssexBrian S. Dempsey18.60.226.013.50.994.1%82.1%56.8%
89
877th Hampden
Thomas M. Petrolati
18.40.125.813.30.894.0%81.7%56.2%
90
883rd BristolShaunna O'Connell17.80.925.312.80.393.6%80.7%54.5%
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8912th EssexLeah Cole17.7-2.825.212.70.293.5%80.5%54.2%
92
903rd NorfolkRonald Mariano17.3-1.424.912.3-0.293.2%79.7%52.9%
93
916th HampdenMichael J. Finn17.2-2.024.812.2-0.393.1%79.5%52.6%
94
9237th MiddlesexJennifer E. Benson17.2-0.624.712.2-0.393.1%79.4%52.5%
95
932nd FranklinDenise Andrews17.1-1.724.712.2-0.493.1%79.4%52.4%
96
9410th BristolWilliam M. Straus16.92.624.512.0-0.692.9%78.9%51.7%
97
9516th Middlesex
Thomas A. Golden Jr.
16.9-2.224.512.0-0.692.9%78.9%51.7%
98
968th NorfolkLouis L. Kafka16.3-0.424.011.4-1.192.4%77.6%49.8%
99
973rd MiddlesexKate Hogan16.2-2.523.911.4-1.292.3%77.5%49.7%
100
9811th PlymouthClaire D. Cronin16.21.923.911.4-1.292.3%77.5%49.6%
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