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Kelley Johnson Analysis
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Statistic2011 (League Average)2010 (League Average)Career My Analysis
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Walk %8.1% (8.6%)11.8% (8.5%)10.8%He is below his career average and how he did last year. This indicates that he does not have the pitch selection he's had in the past.
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K %31.7% (20.9%)25.3% (20.7%)23%This is way up from his career average and is much higher than the league average. This to me shows hes not picking good pitches to swing at.
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Walk/K (the bigger the number, the better)0.29 (0.46)0.53 (0.46)0.54This number is unreal how small it is compared to the league average and his career average. This is a horrible sign. It means that he is either selecting very poorly which pitches to swing at or he is swinging at pitches and missing at an alarming rate (or it could be some of both). The point is that this isn't a luck thing, this is a him not making good decisions thing.
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% of pitches batter swings at outside the strike zone33.3% (28.5%)29.0% (29.3%)23.7%He is swinging at way to many bad pitches. These are going to be pitches that are very hard to hit well. Hes doing this much more than he has over the course of his career and even significantly more than he did last year. He did have a lot of homeruns last year and maybe some of it was due to swinging at a couple more pitches that were just out of the strike zone, but it looks like he has taken that idea to far.
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% of times batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown inside the strike zone79.1% (87.8%)86.9% (88.1%)88.5%This is another very scary statistic. He is making contact when he swings at strikes close to 10% less than he did last year, over his career, and compared to the league average. This means that his ability to hit the ball in situations where he is the most likely to produce a quality hit, he can't even make contact with it. Again, this isn't a luck thing.
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% of pitches seen inside the strike zone41.1% (46.7%)43.8% (46.5%)48%He is getting much fewer quality pitches to swing at than he should be getting or than he has gotten in the past. Yet, since he is swinging at so many pitches out of the strike zone and hes not walking, the pitchers know that they don't have to throw him strikes because he will swing at the bad pitches and either strike out or make poor contact and get out.
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% of strikes that were swung at and missed12.4% (8.4%)10.4% (8.5%)8.8%Again, here is more support for the fact that he is swinging and missing at good pitches way more than he ever has in the past and way more than what the league average is. This is another indicator that there is something wrong with him, he's not just unlucky right now.
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Line Drive %12.2% (N/A)20.5% (N/A)21%This to me is a big problem. A very large majority of hits come from line drives and his line drives are down a lot compared to last year and his career. I think this statistic is the best indicator to look at when you are trying to determine if a batters average is due to chance or actual problems since line drives indicate that a batter is actually making good contact and taking good swings (I don't like BABIP as a statistic much more than I like AVG). Since his line drive rate is down and because of the other information we have, it's safe to assume that it's due to a combination of pitchers knowing that they don't have to throw him strikes and him swinging at so many bad pitches out of the strike zone.
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Ground Ball %46.3% (N/A)41.5% (N/A)41.3%Ground balls give you the worst chance of getting a hit (at least with a fly ball it could leave the yard). This again gives us another indicator that he is not swinging the bat well and not selecting his pitches well.
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