ABCDE
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Years of life lost (YLL) due to C19OptimisticCentralPessimisticSource:
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Experts (just for reference)
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% of world infected20%40%60%Prof. Lipsitch (Harvard)
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# of infections1.5bn3.0bn4.6bnWorld population * % of World infected
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IFR0.10%0.23%0.36%Oxford C19 Evidence Service
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# of Deaths 1.5m7.0m16.4mRow 5 * 6
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Metaculus Predictions (From 16/04)
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# of infections1.6bn638m219mMetaculus
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IFR - metaculus calculated0.03%0.24%3%Row 13 / Row 10
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IFR - metaculus direct prediction0.04%0.7%1.2%Metaculus
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# of Deaths direct prediction479k1.6m7mMetaculus
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% deaths of <40 year olds0.05%0.10%0.20%COVID-19-related mortality by age groups in Europe: A meta-analysis
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% deaths of 40-69 year olds10.3%12.8%15.6%COVID-19-related mortality by age groups in Europe: A meta-analysis
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% deaths of ≥ 70 year olds88.1%84.8%81.3%COVID-19-related mortality by age groups in Europe: A meta-analysis
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World Life expectancy @ 20575757https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/
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World Life expectancy @ 55252525https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/
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Population weighted World life expectancy @ ≥ 70111111https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/
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Average years of life lost per C19 death12.512.913.4
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Years of life lost due to C196m20m87mRow 13 * 23
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Other diseases YYLs
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Cancer213m217m221mGlobal Burden of Disease 2017
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Substance abuse12m13m14mGlobal Burden of Disease Study
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Diarrhea73m85m100mGlobal Burden of Disease Study
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Costs
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World GDP/capita~$11K~$11K~$11Khttp://statisticstimes.com/economy/gross-world-product-capita.php
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GDP per capita paid per DALY123
Cost Per Daly Averted in Low, Middle and High Income Countries: Evidence from Global Burden of Disease Study to Estimate the Cost Effectiveness Thresholds
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$ Cost of C192439bn4979bn7612bn