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ECO Template
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The 2023 Eclipse Carbon Optimization (ECO) Standard Template was developed by Eclipse in collaboration with Rho Impact. Editable fields appear in dark gray.
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Analysis is FinalizedCompany Name: Acme Shipping Co.Sector:HQ Location Address: N/APOC is a Third-Party Assurer
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TRUEFounding Year: 2020Transportation and warehousingProvided to: Eclipse Ventures

Date: August 1, 2023		No
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Point of Contact: Industry Group:Analysis Conducted By:
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Truck transportationRho Impact: Analyst(s) Name(s)
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DescriptionOverview
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ApplicationHigh efficiency B2B small parcel delivery route
Acme Shipping Co. offers optimized routing to reduce B2B impacts.
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GeographyUnited StatesAbbreviations
MMt : million metric tons
Mt: metric tons
CO2e: carbon dioxide equivalents
ERP: emissions reduction potential
B2B- business to business
BAU- Business as usual
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Market demand unitbillion parcels delivered
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Greenhouse Gases Considered☒CO2 ☐CH4 ☐N2O ☐HFCs ☐PFCs ☐SF6
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GWP of Each Gas ConsideredCO2 = 1
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Unit of Measure for GHG IntensityMMt CO2e/ billion parcels delivered
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Incumbent partial emissions intensity per life cycle phase
Rationale (example calculations shown for year 2050)Citation
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Total (mass of CO2e/unit)MMt CO2e/ billion parcels delivered
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First/Middle-MileEmissions occuring from the combustion of fuel to transport a parcel from origin to commercial destination via ground transit.

Emissions are calculated using the fuel gal/package reported by Acme Shipping Co. and a diesel emissions factor reported by the EPA. 0.05 gal/package for first/middle mile * 10.21 kg CO2e/gal = 0.51 kg CO2/package. This happens to have a 1:1 conversion to MMtCO2e/billion packages.

Acme Shipping Co. internal analysis assumes 75 stem miles per route, 1 mile per package, 1,000 middle mile capacity, and 100 final mile route capacity.		US EPA. Emission Factors for Greenhouse Gas Inventories. 2014 https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2015-07/documents/emission-factors_2014.pdf

Per company comms. July 1, 2023. See Rho Impact detailed model for complete set of data transformations.

For the purposes of this demonstration file, baseline partial emissions intensities by life cycle phase are assumed to be static.
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20220.51
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20250.51
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20300.51
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20400.51
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20500.51
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Last-Mile20221.50
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20251.50
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20301.50
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20401.50
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20501.50
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Actual and Expected Market Size (Baseline)
Rationale (example calculations shown for year 2050)Citation
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YearUnits Produced Total by Specified Geography Total parcel shipments are linearly projected using XXXXXX data, then multiplied by the fraction of B2B parcels, equating to 50 billion B2B parcels in the US by 2050.

XXXXXX reports 10 billion parcels shipped in the US in 2016 and 20 billion in 2020. Assuming linear growth, this will reach 90 billion parcels shipped in 2050. According to Aljohani & Thompson 2020, 44% of parcel shipments (in the UK) are B2B. Further assuming this fraction applies to the United States, 90 billion parcels in 2050 * 44% B2C = 40 billion B2B parcels in the US.		Aljohani, K. and Thompson, R.G. (2020) ‘An Examination of Last Mile Delivery Practices of Freight Carriers Servicing Business Receivers in Inner-City Areas’, Sustainability, 12(7). Available at: https://mdpi-res.com/d_attachment/sustainability/sustainability-12-02837/article_deploy/sustainability-12-02837-v2.pdf.

“B2B Parcel Shipping Volumes for the United States 2010-2020,” XXXXXX, accessed March 31, 2022, https://www......../.
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Market Size Unit of Measurebillion parcels delivered
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Market Size Estimates in:
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202211
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202514
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203019
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204029
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205040
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Calculated Market CAGR (%) 2022-20504.86%
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Actual and Expected Market Size (Emissions)
Rationale (example calculations shown for year 2050)Citation
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YearEmissionsTotal parcel shipments are linearly projected using XXXXXX data, then multiplied by the fraction of B2B parcels, equating to 50 billion B2B parcels in the US by 2050.

XXXXXX reports 10 billion parcels shipped in the US in 2016 and 20 billion in 2020. Assuming linear growth, this will reach 90 billion parcels shipped in 2050. According to Aljohani & Thompson 2020, 44% of parcel shipments (in the UK) are B2B. Further assuming this fraction applies to the United States, 90 billion parcels in 2050 * 44% B2C = 40 billion B2B parcels in the US.		Aljohani, K. and Thompson, R.G. (2020) ‘An Examination of Last Mile Delivery Practices of Freight Carriers Servicing Business Receivers in Inner-City Areas’, Sustainability, 12(7). Available at: https://mdpi-res.com/d_attachment/sustainability/sustainability-12-02837/article_deploy/sustainability-12-02837-v2.pdf.

“B2B Parcel Shipping Volumes for the United States 2010-2020,” XXXXXX, accessed March 31, 2022, https://www......../.
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Market Size Unit of MeasureMMT CO2e
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Market Size Estimates in:
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202222.11
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202528.14
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203038.19
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204058.29
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205079.596
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Calculated Market CAGR (%) 2022-20504.86%
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New technology partial emissions intensity per life cycle phase
Rationale (example calculations shown for year 2050)Citation
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Total (mass of CO2e/unit)MMt CO2e/ billion parcels delivered
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Acme Shipping Co. reports 30% reductions in last-mile fuel usage and a 50% reduction in first/middle-mile fuel usage. The fuel usage reduction is directly translated to an emissions reduction, which conservatively assumes the same fuel emissions intensity for Acme Shipping Co. as for the incumbent.

Li et al. found that the last-mile emissions could be reduced by 44.9% when an EV is used for delivery rather than an equivalent ICE vehicle. BEVs are reported to have, on average, 68% of the direct emissions of hybrid electric vehicles. Assuming 49:1 hybrid electric vehicles:BEVs used for last-mile delivery, savings due to electric delivery are weighted (20% of delivery vehicles) and reflected in the resulting 0.75 MMtCO2e/billion parcels delivered partial emissions intensity.
Li, L. et al. (2021) ‘Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Last-Mile Parcel Delivery by Automated Vehicles and Robots’, Environmental Science & Technology, 55(16), pp. 11360–11367. doi:10.1021/acs.est.0c08213.


Acme Shipping Co. Internal Analysis. Stored in Gemini. File ID: XXXX-XXXX-XXXX-XXXX.

IEA. Well-to-wheels greenhouse gas emissions for cars by powertrains. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/well-to-wheels-greenhouse-gas-emissions-for-cars-by-powertrains (2022).
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First/Middle-Mile
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% reduction20220.3570
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30.00%20250.3570
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20300.3570
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20400.3570
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20500.3570
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Last-Mile20220.7500
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% reduction20250.7500
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50.00%20300.7500
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20400.7500
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20500.7500
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ERP Unit EconomicsRationale (example calculations shown for year 2050)Citation
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Calculated Total Avoided Emissions Per UnitAcme Shipping Co. reports 30% fuel savings due to more efficient fleet routing. Extra savings reflect the use of EVs or HEVs for last-mile delivery.

Ibid.
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202244.9%
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202544.9%
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203044.9%
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204044.9%
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205044.9%
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Total Reduction PotentialRationale (example calculations shown for year 2050)Citation
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Annual Reduction Potential = Incumbent Emissions Intensity ✕ Expected Market Size ✕ Total Avoided Emissions Per Unit ✕ Expected Market Share. 2022 and 2023 avoided emissions reflect actual sales data.

Simple s-curve growth used to model Acme Shipping Co's market penetration to a target value of 5% by 2050, beginning with an initial growth rate reflective of 2022 and 2023 sales data.		Comms with Acme Shipping Co. and Investment Managers, 2023.

Acme Shipping Co. delivered 8 million packages in 2022 and expects to deliver 15 million in 2023, with steady growth reaching 5% of the market by 2050.
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Market Penetration Unit% of Target Market
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Penetration Assumptions in
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20220.01%
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20250.30%
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20301.00%
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20403.00%
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20505.00%