WZA 2018 Predictions
 Share
The version of the browser you are using is no longer supported. Please upgrade to a supported browser.Dismiss

 
View only
 
 
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
1
Hi, Collin Watts here.

I hope you find this spreadsheet interesting -- I found it interesting to make. A bit of an introduction: there
are three tabs of predictions of how everyone will do, and then the normal faction and stats breakdowns
that people like.

The three tabs of predictions are broken down into three ways:
1. Face Value Predictions - These take into account the last ITC season, as well as 2016 and 2017
Warzone: Atlanta performance. They get normalized into a comparable score, and then the max of each
is taken, and combined with my personal opinion on the player's list.

2. Weighted Predictions - Face Value Predictions * a multiplier based on how many Warzone events the
the player has attended, as well as events in total.

3. Weighted+ Predictions - This is, as Kelly Wallace called it, my "thumb on the scale." This is me saying
"I don't think this is predicting things properly" and manually adding some points to make the predictions
more in line with what I feel is right.

As a general methodological note, the model favors Warzone attendance over ITC attendance, and
player skill (based on past performance) over list design.

If anyone has any suggestions on how to improve the accuracy of the model, I'm going to continue to
try to collect and use data as a means of predicting 40k events. I like this kind of meta-nerdness and
would love to hear suggestions.

Can't wait to see everyone in a week!
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
Loading...
Main menu