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2 | RISK | NET | ROI | W | L | P | WIN % | AVG P | ODDS | EDGE | CLV | |||

3 | Overall | 767.50 | -15.37 | -2.00% | 304 | 292 | 3 | 51.00% | 51.83% | -108 | -0.83% | 0.48% | ||

4 | Plays | 755.50 | -19.17 | -2.54% | 300 | 290 | 2 | 50.84% | 51.83% | -108 | -0.98% | 0.48% | ||

5 | Futures | 12.00 | 3.80 | 31.67% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 64.29% | 45.13% | 122 | 19.16% | |||

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26 | What is this? | |||||||||||||

27 | This is a Google Sheet that tracks my MLB model plays. | |||||||||||||

28 | How do I get the model plays? | |||||||||||||

29 | Model plays are free through the month of April. Otherwise, model play packages are available for purchase at samkonmodels.com/products | |||||||||||||

30 | How does it work? | |||||||||||||

31 | Data from the starting lineup players, starting pitchers, and expected available relievers are pulled in to give each team a runs scored and runs allowed projection. Those numbers are then used to calculated win probability for each team. | |||||||||||||

32 | How are model plays determined? | |||||||||||||

33 | The model's win probability is compared to the implied probability of the Vegas moneyline. If there is a disagreement of 3% or more, there is a model play on the side with value. A 5% disagreement is a 1 unit play; a 10% disagreement is a 2 unit play; a 17.4% disagreement is a 3.48 unit play (17.4 divided by 5). UPDATE: On April 25, I extended the disagreement floor out to 3%. The unit scale is still 5% = 1 unit, so a 3% play would be 0.60 units (3 divided by 5). | |||||||||||||

34 | Are model plays the amount risked or the amount to win? | |||||||||||||

35 | If the model play is on a favorite, the amount is placed on the "to win" amount. If the model play is on an underdog, the amount is placed on the "to risk" amount. | |||||||||||||

36 | How do I calculate how much value my line has if it's different? | |||||||||||||

37 | I would highly suggest making a copy of this Google Sheet (File -> Make a copy) and using the Calculator tab. | |||||||||||||

38 | When are model plays made? | |||||||||||||

39 | In most cases, the timing of model plays just depends on when starting lineups are announced. Any model plays made prior to lineups being announced typically require the following: 1) High lineup projection certainty 2) Low lineup value variance if variance occurs 3) Anticipated line move outside of playable range. As the season progresses and lineup projection becomes more consistent, I would expect more plays to be made prior to lineups being announced. | |||||||||||||

40 | What book do you use? | |||||||||||||

41 | I use various books for my personal action, but all lines for model purposes are taken from Pinnacle. | |||||||||||||

42 | What data / sites do you use? | |||||||||||||

43 | I do not disclose this information. | |||||||||||||

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