MLB 2019 Model Tracker
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RISKNETROIWLPWIN %AVG PODDSEDGECLV
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Overall767.50-15.37-2.00%304292351.00%51.83%-108-0.83%0.48%
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Plays755.50-19.17-2.54%300290250.84%51.83%-108-0.98%0.48%
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Futures12.003.8031.67%42164.29%45.13%12219.16%
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What is this?
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This is a Google Sheet that tracks my MLB model plays.
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How do I get the model plays?
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Model plays are free through the month of April. Otherwise, model play packages are available for purchase at samkonmodels.com/products
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How does it work?
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Data from the starting lineup players, starting pitchers, and expected available relievers are pulled in to give each team a runs scored and runs allowed projection. Those numbers are then used to calculated win probability for each team.
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How are model plays determined?
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The model's win probability is compared to the implied probability of the Vegas moneyline. If there is a disagreement of 3% or more, there is a model play on the side with value. A 5% disagreement is a 1 unit play; a 10% disagreement is a 2 unit play; a 17.4% disagreement is a 3.48 unit play (17.4 divided by 5). UPDATE: On April 25, I extended the disagreement floor out to 3%. The unit scale is still 5% = 1 unit, so a 3% play would be 0.60 units (3 divided by 5).
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Are model plays the amount risked or the amount to win?
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If the model play is on a favorite, the amount is placed on the "to win" amount. If the model play is on an underdog, the amount is placed on the "to risk" amount.
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How do I calculate how much value my line has if it's different?
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I would highly suggest making a copy of this Google Sheet (File -> Make a copy) and using the Calculator tab.
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In most cases, the timing of model plays just depends on when starting lineups are announced. Any model plays made prior to lineups being announced typically require the following: 1) High lineup projection certainty 2) Low lineup value variance if variance occurs 3) Anticipated line move outside of playable range. As the season progresses and lineup projection becomes more consistent, I would expect more plays to be made prior to lineups being announced.
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What book do you use?
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I use various books for my personal action, but all lines for model purposes are taken from Pinnacle.
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What data / sites do you use?
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I do not disclose this information.
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