Cost Benefit Analysis for Treatments - Public
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ABCDEFGHI
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ampligen full dose (no insurance coverage)ampligen half dose (no insurance coverage)ampligen half dose (if insurance covers administration costs)gcmaf + nexavir (ref 3,4)mold avoidance (ref 5)low-dose naltrexone (ref 7)
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Time period in years555555
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discount rate (ref. 1)5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%
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Benefits
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Possible Outcome #1Intangible benefit of feeling better but not good enough to work (ref 2)
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Annual monetized value of intangible benefit$50,000.00$50,000.00$50,000.00$50,000.00$50,000.00$50,000
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Net Present Value$216,473.83$216,473.83$216,473.83$216,473.83$216,473.83$216,473.83
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Probability of outcome20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%43.48%44.44%
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Expected value of Outcome #1$43,294.77$43,294.77$43,294.77$43,294.77$94,119.06$96,210.59
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Possible Outcome #2Intangible benefit of feeling better plus tangible benefit of being able to work while retaining social security disability benefits (ref 6)
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Monthly disability payments$973.00$973.00$973.00$973.00$973.00$973.00
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Annual reinstatement part-time income, pre-tax$25,000.00$25,000.00$25,000.00$25,000.00$25,000.00$25,000.00
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Benefit during trial period of 9 months$73,676.00$73,676.00$73,676.00$73,676.00$73,676.00$73,676.00
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Benefit during extended period of eligibility for 3 years (add prescription drug and work-related travel expenses to $1000 earnings cap)$89,276.00$82,076.00$82,076.00$74,876.00$74,876.00$76,276.00
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Benefit during reinstatement year (no more disability benefits, post-15% income tax)$71,250.00$71,250.00$71,250.00$71,250.00$71,250.00$71,250.00
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Net Present Value$357,537.37$338,863.67$338,863.67$320,189.97$320,189.97$323,820.97
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Probability of outcome10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.14%9.26%
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Expected value of Outcome #2$35,753.74$33,886.37$33,886.37$32,019.00$32,483.04$29,983.42
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Possible Outcome #3Intangible benefit of feeling better plus tangible benefit of being able to work full time (post-tax)
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Annual reinstatement full-time income, pre-tax$50,000.00$50,000.00$50,000.00$50,000.00$50,000.00$50,000.00
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Benefit during reinstatement years (no more disability benefits, post-25% income tax)$87,500.00$87,500.00$87,500.00$87,500.00$87,500.00$87,500.00
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Net Present Value$295,495.88$295,495.88$295,495.88$295,495.88$295,495.88$295,495.88
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Probability of outcome10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%0%0.00%
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Expected value of Outcome #3$29,549.59$29,549.59$29,549.59$29,549.59$0.00$0.00
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Net Present Value of Treatment Benefit$108,598.09$106,730.72$106,730.72$104,863.35$126,602.10$126,194.02
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Costs
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Annual Costs
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Treatment cost$14,400.00$7,200.00$7,200.00$7,650.00$2,000.00$1,080.00
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Administrative cost$9,506.00$9,506.00$3,729.45
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Rent Expense$9,600.00$9,600.00$9,600.00$9,600.00$3,600.00$3,600.00
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Utilities (including internet)$2,400.00$2,400.00$2,400.00$2,400.00$960.00$960.00
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Food expense$3,600.00$3,600.00$3,600.00$3,600.00$3,600.00$3,600.00
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Travel Costs$1,200.00$1,200.00$1,200.00$2,600.00$2,400.00$2,400.00
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Side Effects$784.00
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Intangible Costs$10,000.00
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Total annual costs$40,706.00$33,506.00$24,000.00$29,579.45$22,560.00$12,424.00
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One-time cost
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Truck plus trailer$43,000.00
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Net Present Value of Treatment Costs$176,235.68$145,063.45$103,907.44$128,063.54$140,672.99$53,789.42
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Net Present Value of Treatment Benefits minus Treatment Costs-$67,637.59-$38,332.72$2,823.28-$23,200.19-$14,070.89$72,404.60
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references:
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1)In medicine, discount rates of 3 to 5 percent are recommended and in other fields discount rates of 10 percent or higher have been used. http://www.gatesfoundation.org/learning/documents/wwl-report-measuring-estimating-social-value-creation.pdf
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2)exchange rate: 1euro to $1.41
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3)insurance companies calculate that to make a treatment worth its cost, it must guarantee one year of "quality life" for $50,000 or less http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1808049,00.html
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4) 10 out of 24 responders showing some level of positive response to GcMaf https://spreadsheets4.google.com/ccc?authkey=CIH8jqcC&hl=en&key=tZNXEKNWzIsbWaN4iN1pWWw&hl=en&authkey=CIH8jqcC
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5) 30 out of 69 patients experienced moderate improvement, 7 out of 69 patients experienced major improvement from avoiding mold http://curetogether.com/chronic%20fatigue%20syndrome/treatments/
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6) "During the trial work period, there are no limits on your earnings. During the 36-month extended period of eligibility, you usually can make no more than $1,000 a month or your benefits will stop. But, the work expenses you have as a result of your disability are deducted when we count your earnings . If you have extra work expenses, your earnings could be substantially higher than $1,000 before they affect your benefits. This substantial earnings amount usually increases each year. We deduct work expenses related to your disability from your earnings before we determine if you are still eligible for benefits. These expenses may include the cost of any item or service you need to work, even if the item or service also is useful to you in your daily living. Examples include prescription drugs, transportation to and from work (under certain conditions), a personal attendant or job coach, a wheelchair or any specialized work equipment. http://www.ssa.gov/pubs/10095.html#part4
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7)13 out of 54 patients reported moderate improvement, 16 out of 54 patients reported major improvement from low-dose naltrexone. http://curetogether.com/chronic-fatigue-syndrome/treatments/ Based on the lack of anecdotal reports from patients going back to work on LDN, I used a conservative estimate of one-third of the patients that reported major improvement being able to return to part-time work. Common side effect: insomnia. I estimated 28 days of lost productivity at $28/hr based on this study on the economic costs of insomnia http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090101083258.htm
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