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Annex: Jobs data methodology
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Green infrastructure
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All green infrastructure jobs are adapted from a 2018 study, ‘Unlocking the Job Potential of Zero Carbon’, published by the Green European Foundation with the support of UK-based Green House think tank. This employed a model to estimate the jobs requirements to reach net zero by 2030 across key sectors, on a bottom-up basis - that is, according to different areas’ needs:
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Each area’s net-zero transition requirement (e.g. x additional miles travelled by train) is multiplied by an estimate of the number of jobs required (e.g. 4 FTE jobs per 10,000 train miles/year).
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Each sector’s job total is net of job losses caused by the transition (e.g. jobs maintaining petrol/diesel vehicles).
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The model found estimates for both ‘transition’ (up to 2030) and ‘long-term’ (beyond 2030).
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It does not include ‘induced jobs’ (those in supply chains or those created by more people in employment having money to spend).
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A number of adjustments to the national ‘transition’ figures were made by Green New Deal UK, in order to bring estimates in line with what analysts deemed plausible for job creation over the next 2 and 10 years. All 10-year figures were also multiplied by 0.8 to give 2-year figures to account for the slower delivery possible in the next two years.
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The result of these adjustments is a total figure of 557,000 green infrastructure jobs in the next two years. Despite the different approach, this is similar to the 591,000 figure in our original Green Jobs for All report. It is in line with other analyses such as that of the New Economics Foundation, which found that an 18 month green infrastructure investment could create 400,000 jobs.
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A final adjustment then redistributed figures from the original NUTS3 level to constituency level, by allocating using population-weighted averages down to electoral ward level before recombining wards to give parliamentary constituency totals.
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R&D
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The TUC found that research and development in decarbonising technology in manufacturing could help create over 38,440 jobs in the next two years. This figure was distributed to constituencies based on levels of existing manufacturing infrastructure, with a multiplier of 2 for 10-year investment.
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Digital infrastructure
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The TUC found that investment in high-speed broadband could help create 42,365 jobs in the next two years. This figure was distributed evenly to all 650 constituencies.
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Care
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Analysis by the New Economics Foundation found a total of 646,000 jobs in care work could be created across the UK. Constituency level estimates are an approximate forecast based on expected demand per constituency. This is derived from the proportion of each constituency over the age of fifty (as a forecast for future elderly care) and a forecast for each constituency currently in receipt of Disability Living Allowance (as a proxy forecast for other adult social care).
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Covid-19 permanent job losses
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Our estimates for permanent job losses as a result of Covid-19 - the interaction of its economic impact with propensities for future automation - are based on analysis by the RSA and explained in full in our Green Jobs for All report. Constituency level estimates follow from the proportion of jobs per constituency in RSA’s high-risk category; these were multiplied by the fraction of furloughed jobs in recent UK Government data to give an indicator of risk of permanent loss.
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Cost
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Our national cost estimate, detailed in Green Jobs for All, estimated a total cost to the exchequer of just under £48 billion over the next two years, corresponding to the creation of over 1.2m jobs. No costing has been provided for job creation at a local level; we assume that all additional funding would be borne by central government as part of a national-scale investment.
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