Organizing Swing Distrcts for Action 02
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This spreadsheet shows that if Obama voters had been persuaded to vote for their District's House candidate, Dems would have picked up 14 more seats. Had the techniques used by the Obama campaign been used to increase their candidate's margin one half of a point, the House would be in Dem hands, 217 to 215. With 1.5 points, then 21 districts could have been in Democratic hands, giving a comfortable 224 to 208 majority.
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14Extra Dem seats if those voting for Obama voted for the DEM House candidate
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17Extra Dem seats if Victory Machine tactics could extract just three extra points in swing districts.
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* Data for this table came from this Daily Kos article http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections
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* Data is incomplete (see blank entries below) for several important states which could substantially add to the number of districts potentially in play.
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CDIncumbentPartyObama 2012Romney 2012If Obama voters were persuadedIf OFA added0.5point(s) to candidate's results
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AK-ALYoung, Don(R)41.255.3
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AL-01Bonner, Jo(R)37.461.8
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AL-02Roby, Martha(R)
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AL-03Rogers, Mike D.(R)
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AL-04Aderholt, Rob(R)2474.8
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AL-05Brooks, Mo(R)34.963.9
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AL-06Bachus, Spencer(R)24.774.3
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AL-07Sewell, Terri(D)
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AR-01Crawford, Rick(R)36.361
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AR-02Griffin, Tim(R)42.954.7
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AR-03Womack, Steve(R)31.665.5
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AR-04Cotton, Tom(R)35.961.8
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AZ-01Kirkpatrick, Ann(D)47.950.4
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AZ-02Barber, Ron(D)48.449.9
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AZ-03Grijalva, Raul(D)61.436.9
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AZ-04Gosar, Paul(R)3167.2
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AZ-05Salmon, Matt(R)34.663.8
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AZ-06Schweikert, David(R)38.859.5
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AZ-07Pastor, Ed(D)71.726.5
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AZ-08Franks, Trent(R)36.961.7
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AZ-09Sinema, Kyrsten(D)51.146.6
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CA-01LaMalfa, Doug(R)40.356.6
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CA-02Huffman, Jared(D)6927
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CA-03Garamendi, John(D)54.343.1
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CA-04McClintock, Tom(R)39.557.9
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CA-05Thompson, Mike(D)69.727.5
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CA-06Matsui, Doris(D)69.128.3
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CA-07Bera, Ami(D)50.846.8
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CA-08Cook, Paul(R)41.755.6
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CA-09McNerney, Jerry(D)57.840.1
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CA-10Denham, Jeff(R)50.64711
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CA-11Miller, George(D)67.630
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CA-12Pelosi, Nancy(D)84.112.5
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CA-13Lee, Barbara(D)87.59
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CA-14Speier, Jackie(D)74.223.6
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CA-15Swalwell, Eric(D)6829.8
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CA-16Costa, Jim(D)58.639.4
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CA-17Honda, Michael(D)71.925.5
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CA-18Eshoo, Anna(D)68.228.9
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CA-19Lofgren, Zoe(D)71.226.5
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CA-20Farr, Sam(D)70.926.2
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CA-21Valadao, David(R)54.643.511
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CA-22Nunes, Devin(R)41.656.6
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CA-23McCarthy, Kevin(R)36.161.5
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CA-24Capps, Lois(D)54.143.1
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CA-25McKeon, Buck(R)47.849.7
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CA-26Brownley, Julia(D)5443.7
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CA-27Chu, Judy(D)62.635
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CA-28Schiff, Adam(D)70.326.5
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CA-29Cardenas, Tony(D)7720.5
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CA-30Sherman, Brad(D)65.332.1
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CA-31Miller, Gary(R)57.240.611
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CA-32
Napolitano, Grace
(D)65.232.5
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CA-33Waxman, Henry(D)60.636.8
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CA-34Becerra, Xavier(D)8314.1
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CA-35
Negrete McLeod, Gloria
(D)67.430.6
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CA-36Ruiz, Raul(D)50.747.5
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CA-37Bass, Karen(D)84.912.7
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CA-38Sanchez, Linda(D)64.933
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CA-39Royce, Ed(R)47.150.8
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CA-40
Roybal-Allard, Lucille
(D)81.516.5
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CA-41Takano, Mark(D)61.536.3
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CA-42Calvert, Ken(R)41.456.5
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CA-43Waters, Maxine(D)7820
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CA-44Hahn, Janice(D)84.713.6
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CA-45Campbell, John(R)4354.8
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CA-46Sanchez, Loretta(D)61.436.2
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CA-47Lowenthal, Alan(D)6037.5
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CA-48
Rohrabacher, Dana
(R)4354.7
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CA-49Issa, Darrell(R)45.752.4
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CA-50Hunter, Duncan(R)37.660.4
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CA-51Vargas, Juan(D)69.428.9
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CA-52Peters, Scott(D)52.145.7
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CA-53Davis, Susan(D)61.436.4
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CO-01DeGette, Diana(D)6928.8
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CO-02Polis, Jared(D)57.939.5
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CO-03Tipton, Scott(R)45.851.8
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CO-04Gardner, Cory(R)39.258.5
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CO-05Lamborn, Doug(R)38.359.1
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CO-06Coffman, Mike(R)51.646.511
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CO-07Perlmutter, Ed(D)56.141.3
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CT-01Larson, John(D)6336
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CT-02Courtney, Joe(D)5643
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CT-03DeLauro, Rosa(D)6336
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CT-04Himes, Jim(D)5544
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CT-05Esty, Elizabeth(D)5445
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DE-ALCarney, John(D)58.640
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FL-01Miller, Jeff(R)30.268.7
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FL-02
Southerland, Steve
(R)46.552.3
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FL-03Yoho, Ted(R)37.461.5
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FL-04Crenshaw, Ander(R)35.463.7
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FL-05Brown, Corrine(D)71.128.2
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