Vital Farms Valuation Model.xlsx

	C	D	E	H	I	J	K	L	M
1
2	Vital Farms Valuation Based On Peer Comps					Peer Comps
3	Estimated 2025 Sales	$ 710	(millions)		LTM Revenue Growth	Operating Profit Margin	Expected 2025 Revenue Growth	Enterprise Value to Forward Sales Ratio
4	(x) EV/Forward Sales	3.5		Vital Farms	29.10%	10.40%	18.70%	2.3
5	Enterprise Value	$ 2,485	(millions)	Celsius	19.40%	17%	16%	4.7
6				Monster	7%	27.40%	8.10%	6.3
7	(+) Net Cash	$ 140.00	(millions)	Freshpet	29.40%	3.70%	24.60%	6.3
8	Equity Value	$ 2,625.00		Mama's Creations	17.20%	4.20%	16.60%	2.8
9				National Beverage Company (Lacroix)	0.70%	18.30%	2.40%	3.5
10	(%) Diluted Shares Outstanding	45.2	(millions)					4.72	(Average)
11	Implied Price	$ 58.08
12	Current Share Price	$ 38.30
13	% Upside	51.63%
14					Reference numbers to help anchor your assumed EV/Forward Sales multiple in cell D4, red highlights shows where companyies have inferior metrics to Vital Farms. For EV/Sales, red indicates a more expensive valuation ratio
15
16					You'd expect companies with stronger recent and expected growth to have higher EV/Sales valuations. Profitability is also a consideration, too, where companies with higher margins should have higher valuation multiples/ratios. These are five peer companies with strong consumer packaged brands with similar financial profiles (in terms of being profitable and not having a ton of debt), and there's a wide range in EV/Sales valuations. Vital Farms is in the middle of the pack in terms of operating profitability and towards the top in terms of expected growth, but its EV/Sales valuation is by far the lowest. If Vital Farms were to converge closer to the average EV/Sales group based on its brand quality and growth prospects, the implied upside ranges from 30% to over 150%.
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100