1992 Election Spoiler Effect
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Actual ResultsScenario 1: Perot votes Split 50/50Scenario 2: Perot votes Split 50 Bush/25 Clinton/25 No One0.200.53Scenario 3: Perot votes Split 75 Bush/25 ClintonScenario 4: Bush Receives all Perot Votes
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StateElectoral VotesClintonBushPerotClintonElec. VotesBushElec. VotesClintonElec. VotesBushElec. VotesClintonElec. VotesBushElec. VotesClintonElec. VotesBushElec. VotesClintonElec. VotesBushElec. Votes
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Alabama9690,080804,283183,109781,6350895,8389735,8570895,8389726,7020901,3319735,8570941,6159690,0800987,3929
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Alaska378,294102,00073,481115,0350138,741396,6640138,741392,9900140,945396,6640157,111378,2940175,4813
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Arizona8543,050572,086353,741719,9210748,9578631,4850748,9578613,7980759,5698631,4850837,3928543,0500925,8278
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Arkansas6505,823337,32499,132555,3896386,8900530,6066386,8900525,6496389,8640530,6066411,6730505,8236436,4560
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California545,121,3253,630,5742,296,0066,269,328544,778,57705,695,327544,778,57705,580,526544,847,45705,695,327545,352,57905,121,32505,926,58054
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Colorado8629,681562,850366,010812,6868745,8550721,1840745,8558702,8830756,8358721,1840837,3588629,6810928,8608
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Connecticut8682,318578,313348,771856,7048752,6990769,5118752,6990752,0720763,1628769,5110839,8918682,3180927,0848
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Delaware3126,054102,31359,213155,6613131,9200140,8573131,9200137,8973133,6960140,8570146,7233126,0540161,5263
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D.C.3192,61920,6989,681197,460325,5390195,039325,5390194,555325,8290195,039327,9590192,619330,3790
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Florida252,072,6982,173,3101,053,0672,599,23202,699,844252,335,96502,699,844252,283,31102,731,436252,335,96502,963,110252,072,69803,226,37725
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Georgia131,008,966995,252309,6571,163,795131,150,08101,086,38001,150,081131,070,89701,159,370131,086,38001,227,495131,008,96601,304,90913
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Hawaii4179,310136,82253,003205,8124163,3240192,5614163,3240189,9114164,9140192,5614176,5740179,3100189,8254
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Idaho4137,013202,645130,395202,2110267,8434169,6120267,8434163,0920271,7544169,6120300,4414137,0130333,0404
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Illinois222,453,3501,734,096840,5152,873,608222,154,35402,663,479222,154,35402,621,453222,179,56902,663,479222,364,48202,453,35002,574,61122
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Indiana12848,420989,375455,9341,076,38701,217,34212962,40401,217,34212939,60701,231,02012962,40401,331,32612848,42001,445,30912
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Iowa7586,353504,891253,468713,0877631,6250649,7207631,6250637,0470639,2297649,7200694,9927586,3530758,3597
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Kansas6390,434449,951312,358546,6130606,1306468,5240606,1306452,9060615,5016468,5240684,2206390,4340762,3096
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Kentucky8665,104617,178203,944767,0768719,1500716,0900719,1508705,8930725,2688716,0900770,1368665,1040821,1228
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Louisiana9815,971733,386211,478921,7109839,1250868,8419839,1250858,2679845,4690868,8410891,9959815,9710944,8649
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Maine4263,420206,504206,820366,8304309,9140315,1254309,9140304,7840316,1194315,1250361,6194263,4200413,3244
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Maryland10988,571707,094281,4141,129,27810847,80101,058,92510847,80101,044,85410856,24301,058,92510918,1550988,57110988,5080
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Massachusetts121,318,662805,049632,3121,634,818121,121,20501,476,740121,121,20501,445,124121,140,17401,476,740121,279,28301,318,66201,437,36112
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Michigan181,871,1821,554,940824,8132,283,589181,967,34702,077,385181,967,34702,036,145181,992,09102,077,38502,173,550181,871,18202,379,75318
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Minnesota101,020,997747,841562,5061,302,250101,029,09401,161,624101,029,09401,133,498101,045,96901,161,62401,169,721101,020,99701,310,34710
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Mississippi7400,258487,79385,626443,0710530,6067421,6650530,6067417,3830533,1757421,6650552,0137400,2580573,4197
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Missouri111,053,873811,159518,7411,313,244111,070,53001,183,558111,070,53001,157,621111,086,09201,183,55801,200,215111,053,87301,329,90011
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Montana3154,507144,207107,225208,1203197,8200181,3130197,8203175,9520201,0363181,3130224,6263154,5070251,4323
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Nebraska5217,344344,346174,687304,6880431,6905261,0160431,6905252,2810436,9305261,0160475,3615217,3440519,0335
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Nevada4189,148175,828132,580255,4384242,1180222,2930242,1184215,6640246,0954222,2930275,2634189,1480308,4084
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New Hampshire
4209,040202,484121,337269,7094263,1530239,3740263,1534233,3070266,7934239,3740293,4874209,0400323,8214
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New Jersey151,436,2061,356,865521,8291,697,121151,617,78001,566,66301,617,780151,540,57201,633,434151,566,66301,748,237151,436,20601,878,69415
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New Mexico5261,617212,82491,895307,5655258,7720284,5915258,7720279,9965261,5280284,5915281,7450261,6170304,7195
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New York333,444,4502,346,6491,090,7213,989,811332,892,01003,717,130332,892,01003,662,594332,924,73103,717,130333,164,69003,444,450333,437,3700
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North Carolina141,114,0421,134,661357,8641,292,97401,313,593141,203,50801,313,593141,185,61501,324,329141,203,50801,403,059141,114,04201,492,52514
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North Dakota399,168136,24471,084134,7100171,7863116,9390171,7863113,3850173,9193116,9390189,557399,1680207,3283
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Ohio211,984,9421,894,3101,036,4262,503,155212,412,52302,244,04902,412,523212,192,22702,443,616212,244,04902,671,630211,984,94202,930,73621
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Oklahoma8473,066592,929319,878633,0050752,8688553,0360752,8688537,0420762,4648553,0360832,8388473,0660912,8078
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Oregon7621,314475,757354,091798,3607652,8030709,8377652,8030692,1327663,4250709,8370741,3257621,3140829,8487
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Pennsylvania232,239,1641,791,841902,6672,690,498232,243,17502,464,831232,243,17502,419,697232,270,25502,464,83102,468,841232,239,16402,694,50823
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Rhode Island4213,299131,601105,045265,8224184,1240239,5604184,1240234,3084187,2750239,5604210,3850213,2990236,6464
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South Carolina8479,514577,507138,872548,9500646,9438514,2320646,9438507,2880651,1098514,2320681,6618479,5140716,3798
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South Dakota3124,888136,71873,295161,5360173,3663143,2120173,3663139,5470175,5643143,2120191,6893124,8880210,0133
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Tennessee11933,521841,300199,9681,033,50511941,2840983,51311941,2840973,51511947,2830983,5130991,27611933,52101,041,26811
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Texas322,281,8152,496,0711,354,7812,959,20603,173,462322,620,51003,173,462322,552,77103,214,105322,620,51003,512,157322,281,81503,850,85232
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Utah5183,429322,632203,400285,1290424,3325234,2790424,3325224,1090430,4345234,2790475,1825183,4290526,0325
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Vermont3133,59288,12265,991166,5883121,1180150,0903121,1180146,7903123,0970150,0903137,6150133,5920154,1133
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Virginia131,038,6501,150,517348,6391,212,97001,324,837131,125,81001,324,837131,108,37801,335,296131,125,81001,411,996131,038,65001,499,15613
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Washington11993,037731,234541,7801,263,927111,002,12401,128,482111,002,12401,101,393111,018,37701,128,48201,137,56911993,03701,273,01411
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West Virginia5331,001241,974108,829385,4165296,3890358,2085296,3890352,7675299,6530358,2085323,5960331,0010350,8035
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Wisconsin111,041,066930,855544,4791,313,306111,203,09501,177,18601,203,095111,149,96201,219,429111,177,18601,339,214111,041,06601,475,33411
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Wyoming368,16079,34751,26393,7920104,979380,9760104,979378,4130106,516380,9760117,794368,1600130,6103
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Actual Results
Scenario 1 Results (Electoral Votes)
Scenario 2 Results (Electoral Votes)
Scenario 2 Results (Electoral Votes)
Scenario 3 Results (Electoral Votes)
Scenario 4 Results (Electoral Votes)
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Bush168Bush168Bush255Bush274Bush377Bush486
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Clinton370Clinton370Clinton283Clinton264Clinton161Clinton52
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