BCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
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Entrant1. Lowest Q1 Lab lead2. Date of the next UK GE3. Party leaders when the GE is called4. UK General Election outcome5. POTUS Nominees6. POTUS winner7. UK base rate 31/12/248. UK CPI Nov 20249. UK Borrowing to Nov 202410. GB 2024 Olympics medalsNotesNon- standard GE dayLabour majorityImplied Labour seatsImplied Labour majorityHow far out from result:Within 10%?Within 20%?
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ConLabLDSNPReformRepublicansDemocrats172155-189189.2
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_Andy_9%2/5/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafFarageLab 90 majorityHaleyBidenBiden4.75%4.0%£99bn49903709082
5
algarkirk9%19/9/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceNOM Lab 310 seatsTrumpBidenTrump4.00%3.0%£120bn60310-30202
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Andy_JS10%14/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceNOM Lab 290 seatsTrumpBidenBiden3.50%2.5%£140bn55290-70242
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AugustusCarp210%2/5/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 150 majorityTrumpBidenBiden5.00%4.0%£120bn6015040015022YES
8
AverageNinja3%2/5/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafFarageLab 150 majorityTrumpBidenBiden5.25%2.8%£150bn6915040015022YES
9
Barnesian14%9/5/2024MordauntStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 52 majorityHaleyNewsomHaley3.20%2.7%£120bn565235152120
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BartholomewRoberts11%24/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 58 majorityTrumpBidenBiden5.25%2.2%£107bn695835458114
11
Benpointer12%2/5/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 110 majorityHaleyBidenBiden4.25%3.6%£125bn5811038011062
12
Big_G_NorthWales10%24/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 65 majorityTrumpBidenBiden4.00%3.25%£96bn626535865107
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biggles9%23/1/2025SunakStarmerDaveyYousafFarageNOM Lab 306 seatsTrumpBidenTrump4.50%2.1%£100bn71306-38210
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bigjohnowls6%24/10/2024SunakReevesDaveyYousafTiceNOM Lab 299 seatsHaleyBidenHaley3.25%3.0%£105bn73299-52224
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CD1311.3%14/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafFarageLab 50 majorityHaleyBidenBiden2.50%3.1%£123bn555035050122
16
CJtheOptimist5%2/5/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 45 majorityTrumpBidenBiden2.70%5.2%£105bn424534845127
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Clutch_Brompton10%28/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 50 majorityTrumpBidenBiden4.25%3.5%£120bn405035050122
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Cyclefree11%12/12/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 189 majorityTrumpBidenBiden5.00%3.5%£107bn5218942018917YESYES
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david_herdson9%14/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafFarageLab 154 majorityTrumpBidenTrump4.50%3.7%£113bn4915440215418YES
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DavidL7%14/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 40 majorityTrumpBidenBiden4.75%1.8%£94bn444034540132
21
dixiedean10%14/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 58 majorityTrumpBidenBiden3.50%2.5%£120bn405835458114
22
eek12%14/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 145 majorityHaleyBidenBiden4.25%3.3%£124bn5214539814527YES
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Fairliered11%2/5/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 14 majorityTrumpBidenTrump4.25%3.8%£129bn391433214158
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Foxy7%28/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceNOM Lab 315 seatsHaleyHarrisHaley3.25%1.2%£106bn52315-20192
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geoffw11%14/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyForbesTiceLab 45 majorityHaleyBidenHaley4.00%3.0%£70bn644534845127
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gettingbetter10%3/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 136 majorityHaleyBidenBiden4.00%2.9%£96bn5713639313636
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GF212%26/9/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 180 majorityHaleyBidenHaley4.75%3.9%£108bn671804151808YESYES
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Ghedebrav8%24/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 52 majorityHaleyBidenBiden5.50%5.9%£123.2bn485235152120
29
GIN11386%24/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 5 majorityTrumpBidenBiden4.00%4.0%--No answer for 9. or 10.53285167
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Gingray11%21/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafFarageLab 68 majorityTrumpBidenBiden4.25%2.6%£131bn626835968104
31
HYUFD5%24/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 100 majorityDeSantisBidenBiden4.00%3.5%£100bn6010037510072
32
IanB211%10/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 100 majorityHaleyButtegiegHaley4.75%2.7%£95bn4210037510072
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Icarus15%19/9/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafFarageLab 85 majorityChristieButtegiegButtegieg3.75%2.5%£105bn56853688587
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Jamei11%2/5/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 128 majorityHaleyNewsomHaley4.50%2.8%£104bn5212838912844
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Jonathan10%10/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafFarageNOM Lab 10 shortTrumpBidenBiden4.50%4.5%£120bn40315-20192
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kinabalu8%24/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 112 majorityDeSantisObamaObama5.00%5.0%£111bn6611238111260
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kle410%24/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 25 majorityTrumpBidenTrump4.50%3.5%£140bn452533825147
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londonpubman7%2/5/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 30 majorityHaleyBidenHaley4.00%2.9%£100bn503034030142
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madmacs11%17/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafFarageLab 48 majorityHaleyNewsomHaley3.75%2.8%£63bn434834948124
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malcolmg8%31/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 60 majorityHaleyBidenBiden4.50%3.5%£114bn526035560112
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MattW9%17/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 70 majorityHaleyBidenBiden4.25%2.9%£133bn547036070102
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MaxPB9%14/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 64 majorityTrumpBidenBiden3.75%2.3%£89bn616435764108
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Mexicanpete-1%9/1/2025SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceCon 20 MajorityTrumpBidenTrump4.75%2.1%£150bn20Con majority-100275-100272
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MikeL11%21/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 60 majorityTrumpBidenBiden4.00%3.4%£104bn586035560112
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Morris_Dancer5%9/5/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 36 majorityTrumpBidenTrump3.50%2.6%£134bn573634336136
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Mortimer9%2/5/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 88 majorityTrumpNewsomTrump4.25%0.5%£126bn50883698884
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NickPalmer7%24/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafFarageLab 155 majorityTrumpBidenBiden5.00%2.8%£120bn5815540315517YESYES
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No_Offence_Alan11%4/7/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafFarageLab 110 majorityTrumpBidenTrump4.00%2.9%£94bn5511038011062
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Northern_Al14%17/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 80 majorityHaleyBidenHaley3.80%2.7%£94bn64803658092
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OccasionalOptimist8%11/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafFarageLab 10 majorityTrumpBidenTrump4.00%5.1%£123.3bn51GE on a FridayFri1033010162
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Omnium11%5/12/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 15 majorityTrumpBidenBiden3.50%1.2%£120bn401533315157
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OnlyLivingBoy8%14/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 50 majorityTrumpBidenBiden3.25%2.6%£119bn625035050122
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Pagan213%6/6/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceNOM Lab 295 seatsTrumpBidenBiden4.70%3.7%£170bn28295-60232
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partypoliticalorphan9%14/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceNOM Lab 315 seatsTrumpBidenTrump4.25%3.7%£105bn46315-20192
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Peter_the_Punter9%24/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 254 majorityHaleyBidenBiden3.25%3.4%£125bn5225445225482
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Pro_Rata12%2/5/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 90 majorityTrumpBidenBiden4.50%3.1%£110bn51903709082
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Pulpstar9%7/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 40 majorityTrumpBidenBiden4.25%3.4%£110bn504034540132
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Ratters11%2/5/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 70 majorityHaleyBidenBiden4.00%1.7%£130bn567036070102
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Richard_Nabavi10%10/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 80 majorityTrumpBidenTrump4.50%4.1%£128bn61803658092
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Richard_Tyndall9%24/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyForbesFarageLab 6 majorityHaleyBidenHaley4.80%2.9%£100bn3863286166
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rkrkrk10%31/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafFarageLab 40 majorityTrumpBidenBiden3.00%4.0%£180bn404034540132
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RochdalePioneers8%2/5/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafFarageLab 55 majorityTrumpBidenBiden4.00%3.0%£135bn605535355117
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rottenborough12%14/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafFarageLab 100 majorityTrumpBidenTrump4.00%1.8%£120bn5510037510072
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Sandpit16%2/5/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 25 majorityTrumpBidenTrump3.00%3.0%£75bn642533825147
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SandraMc8%10/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 86 majorityTrumpBidenBiden4.25%3.4%£110bn61863688686
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SandyRentool10%31/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceNOM Lab 10 shortHaleyBidenHaley4.50%3.1%£87bn50315-20192
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Sarissa9%21/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 75 majorityTrumpBidenTrump4.25%3.8%£90bn48753637597
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SirNorfolkPassmore12%2/5/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 140 majorityTrumpBidenBiden4.50%3.1%£106.9bn6414039514032YES
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slade10%21/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 86 majorityHaleyBidenBiden3.50%2.1%£121bn66863688686
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spudgfsh13%2/5/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 125 majorityTrumpBidenTrump4.75%3.1%£130bn5312538812547
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Stereodog10%24/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 30 majorityTrumpBidenBiden3.00%3.5%£100bn603034030142
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StillWaters12%21/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 76 majorityTrumpBidenBiden4.75%3.0%£112bn54763637696
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stjohn11%10/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 104 majorityTrumpBidenBiden4.00%3.0%£132bn5810437710468
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Stuartinromford7%19/12/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafFarageLab 75 majorityTrumpBidenBiden4.50%3.2%£126bn58753637597
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Sunil_Prasannan8%21/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 25 majorityTrumpBidenBiden4.10%5.2%£79bn569. Sunil posted $100bn2533825147
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Taz5.74%17/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 52 majorityHaleyBidenHaley4.00%1.1%£106bn485235152120
77
The_Woodpecker7%16/1/2025SunakStarmerDaveyYousafFarageLab 140 majorityTrumpBidenBiden4.50%4.9%£100bn5014039514032YES
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TheKitchenCabinet10%14/11/2024HuntStarmerDaveyYousafTiceNOM Lab 285 seatsTrumpBidenTrump3.25%3.0%£100bn68285-80252
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TheWhiteRabbit11%14/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 162 majorityTrumpBidenBiden4.25%3.3%£89bn5416240616210YESYES
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TimS9%2/5/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafFarageLab 120 majorityTrumpButtegiegButtegieg2.75%0.5%£133bn4512038512052
81
tpfkar12%12/12/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 55 majorityTrumpBidenBiden4.50%3.7%£122bn465535355117
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Tres10%2/5/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 80 majorityTrumpBidenBiden4.75%3.0%£130bn44803658092
83
Twickbait_5513%14/11/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 31 majorityTrumpBidenBiden3.40%2.9%£125bn593134131141
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Verulamius8%28/1/2025BadenochStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 200 majorityHaleyHarrisHaley5.00%4.5%£120bn45GE on a TuesdayTue20042520028YES
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vino8%10/10/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTiceLab 42 majorityTrumpBidenBiden3.25%1.9%£82bn714234642130
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FrequencyLabour seatsFrequency7186.6%
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Low-1%2/5/2024SunakStarmerDaveyYousafTice275TrumpBidenBiden2.50%0.5%£63bn20Low 275
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High16%28/1/202579818280634525472485.50%5.9%£180bn73High 452
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Mean9.55%21/9/2024HuntReevesForbesFarage357HaleyHarrisTrump4.12%3.11%£113.5bn54Mean 357
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Mode10%2/5/2024110219315252174.00%3.0%£120bn52Mode 315
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Median10%24/10/2024Badenoch355DeSantisButtegiegHaley4.25%3.0%£113bn54Median 355
93
Mode frequency1517142314159106Mode count 4
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MordauntChristieNewsomButtegieg
95
1142Below result79Within 10%4
96
ObamaObamaAbove result4Within 20%11
97
11
98
99
8282828282828282
100