CfRN CEA

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G
1			Pessimistic	Realistic	Optimistic	Source	Notes

2
3	Effect on forestry funding
4
5		Benefits
6		Additional funding for REDD+ 2006-14	$5,000,000,000	$7,500,000,000	$9,800,000,000	https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/CGD-Norman-Nakhooda-Climate-Forests-5-REDD-Finance.pdf	Around $400m had been disbursed as of May 2015. $9.8bn has been pledged. The optimistic estimate assumes that all pledged funds will be disbursed. The realistic estimate assumes that ~75% will. This is an uncertain subjective judgement.
7		Average additional annual funding of REDD+ 2006-14	$625,000,000	$937,500,000	$1,225,000,000	Calc
8		Years of additional funding brought about by CfRN	1	3	6	Subjective estimate See CfRN past impact appendix
9		Elasticity of emissions to cost of abatement adjustment factor	0.1	0.05	0.02	Subjective estimate See CfRN past impact appendix
10		Temporal funding shifting adjustment	0.2	0.1	0.05	Subjective estimate See CfRN past impact appendix
11		Impact-adjusted total additional funding brought about by CfRN	$450,000,000	$2,404,687,500	$6,842,850,000	Calc
12		Average cost to avert a tonne of CO2e with REDD+ finance	$30.00	$15.00	$5.00	https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/Seymour-Busch-why-forests-why-now-full-book.PDF Ch 5, especially p. 127 for a review of estimates	This is the average cost for the levels of funding brought about by forestry advocacy over the relevant time period. Costs will increase once the low hanging fruit have been taken
13		Tonnes of CO2e averted by CfRN via increased forestry funding	15,000,000	160,312,500	1,368,570,000	Calc
14
15	Overall cost-effectiveness of past activities
16	Costs
17		Average annual budget (2004-17)		$3,000,000.00		Input CfRN internal info
18		Costs incurred (2004-17)	$39,000,000.00	$39,000,000.00	$39,000,000.00	Calc
19	Benefits
20		Total tonnes of CO2e averted	15,000,000	160,312,500	1,368,570,000	Calc
21	Cost-effectiveness
22		Cost per tonne of CO2e averted	$2.60	$0.24	$0.03	Calc
23		Tonnes of CO2e averter per $100	38.46	411.06	3,509.15	Calc
24
25			218,513,250.00
26	Effect on national forestry plans
27	[Effect not included in model]					http://redd.unfccc.int/submissions.html	See CfRN past impact appendix
28		Benefits
29		Annual net emissions from forestry and other land use (GtCO2e)	4.3	4.9	5.5	IPCC, Climate Change: Mitigation, p. 86.
30		Years CfRN brought forward national REDD+ plans	1	3	6	Subjective estimate See CfRN past impact appendix
31		Reduction in deforestation due to national REDD+ plans over respective time period	0.001	0.002	0.003	Subjective estimate See CfRN past impact appendix	This is the most subjective judgement in this subset of the model, though we think the estimates are reasonable. This averted deforestation may not yet have occurred. CfRN increased the amount that occurs, whenever it occurs.
32		Impact-adjusted tonnes of CO2e averted by CfRN enabling national plans	4,300,000	29,400,000	99,000,000	Calc
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100