CfRN CEA
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PessimisticRealisticOptimisticSourceNotes
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Effect on forestry funding
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Benefits
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Additional funding for REDD+ 2006-14$5,000,000,000$7,500,000,000$9,800,000,000https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/CGD-Norman-Nakhooda-Climate-Forests-5-REDD-Finance.pdfAround $400m had been disbursed as of May 2015. $9.8bn has been pledged. The optimistic estimate assumes that all pledged funds will be disbursed. The realistic estimate assumes that ~75% will. This is an uncertain subjective judgement.
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Average additional annual funding of REDD+ 2006-14 $625,000,000$937,500,000$1,225,000,000Calc
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Years of additional funding brought about by CfRN136Subjective estimate

See CfRN past impact appendix
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Elasticity of emissions to cost of abatement adjustment factor0.10.050.02Subjective estimate

See CfRN past impact appendix
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Temporal funding shifting adjustment0.20.10.05Subjective estimate

See CfRN past impact appendix
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Impact-adjusted total additional funding brought about by CfRN$450,000,000$2,404,687,500$6,842,850,000Calc
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Average cost to avert a tonne of CO2e with REDD+ finance$30.00$15.00$5.00https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/Seymour-Busch-why-forests-why-now-full-book.PDF Ch 5, especially p. 127 for a review of estimatesThis is the average cost for the levels of funding brought about by forestry advocacy over the relevant time period. Costs will increase once the low hanging fruit have been taken
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Tonnes of CO2e averted by CfRN via increased forestry funding15,000,000160,312,5001,368,570,000Calc
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Overall cost-effectiveness of past activities
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Costs
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Average annual budget (2004-17) $3,000,000.00Input
CfRN internal info
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Costs incurred (2004-17) $39,000,000.00$39,000,000.00$39,000,000.00Calc
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Benefits
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Total tonnes of CO2e averted15,000,000160,312,5001,368,570,000Calc
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Cost-effectiveness
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Cost per tonne of CO2e averted$2.60$0.24$0.03Calc
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Tonnes of CO2e averter per $10038.46411.063,509.15Calc
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218,513,250.00
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Effect on national forestry plans
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[Effect not included in model]http://redd.unfccc.int/submissions.htmlSee CfRN past impact appendix
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Benefits
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Annual net emissions from forestry and other land use (GtCO2e)4.34.95.5IPCC, Climate Change: Mitigation, p. 86.
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Years CfRN brought forward national REDD+ plans136Subjective estimate

See CfRN past impact appendix
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Reduction in deforestation due to national REDD+ plans over respective time period0.0010.0020.003Subjective estimate

See CfRN past impact appendix
This is the most subjective judgement in this subset of the model, though we think the estimates are reasonable.

This averted deforestation may not yet have occurred. CfRN increased the amount that occurs, whenever it occurs.
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Impact-adjusted tonnes of CO2e averted by CfRN enabling national plans4,300,00029,400,00099,000,000Calc
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