2000-2004 County Vote Data -Part 2
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2000-2004 Presidential County Vote Database 2 (MO-WY)
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Updated: March 10, 2012
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The database is a spreadsheet tool for viewing, filtering and sorting county vote election data.
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It includes states from MO-WY.
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The database has been updated to calculate the approximate 2004 True Vote for all U.S. counties. The model is based on county recorded vote changes from 2000 and 2004 National Exit Poll vote shares. Due to memory size restrictions, the database had to be split into two Google spreadsheet docs.
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The values in the database are Election Day recorded votes. In 2000 approximately 2.7 million votes were recorded after Election Day. In 2004 there were approximately 6 million late votes. Gore and Kerry each had 55% of the late two-party vote and therefore the late votes do not materially effect Bush's Election Day recorded change in margin.
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In 2004, there were approximately 4 million uncounted votes. Kerry had 70-80%. Uncounted votes (Total Votes Cast) are not included in the database..
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The number of returning 2000 voters in each county is calculated assuming 5% voter mortality over four years and a 98% turnout of living 2000 voters in 2004. The turnout assumption can be changed.
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The number of new voters in each county is the difference between the 2004 recorded vote and the number of returning 2000 voters.
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The 'Voted in 2000' table is used for calculating the True Vote.The default vote shares are from the 2004 National Exit Poll at the 12:22am timeline. The county vote shares are assumed to be identical to the national shares. The returning voter mix is based on the change in county recorded votes from 2000 to 2004. The mix of returning voters as well as the vote shares can be adjusted by the user (i.e. to match the unadjusted state exit poll).
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FILTERING THE DATABASE
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To view OH 2000 and 2004 vote data:.
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1) click the down arrow in cell A13
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2) Click the state code that displays with a check mark to remove the mark
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3) Enter OH in the input box.
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4) Click over "OH" displayed below the box. A check mark will appear to indicate OH is selected.
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5) Click OK.
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It takes a few seconds to bring up the county data.
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IMPORTANT!
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6) scroll to the right and enter OH in cell AC1 to calculate the True Vote for OH and its 88 counties.
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Vote: Any column can be sorted in ascending or descending numerical or alphabetical order,
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THE TRUE VOTE
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The True Vote Model assumes identical state-level shares of returning and new voters. Obviously, there will be differences in Kerry’s share of returning Gore, Bush, Other (third-party) and New voters from his actual (unknowable) shares. But the approximations will generally be close. The weighted average of the county vote shares will closely match the True Vote. The state returning voter mix will display in the table along with the National Exit Poll vote shares. As stated above, the state returning voter mix and the vote shares can be changed to more closely reflect the state.
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The user has the option of having the model force a match to the unadjusted 2004 state exit poll by automatically adjusting Kerry (57%) and Bush (41%) default national exit poll shares of new voters. The corresponding national shares of returning Gore, Bush and new voters are unchanged.
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For example, Kerry had 62.1% in the NY unadjusted exit poll, but only 58.4% in the recorded vote recorded. He required 69.1% of new voters to match the exit poll.
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WHAT-IF ANALYSIS
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AB3 Incremental percentage change in the returning Gore voter percentage mix of the 2004 electorate.
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AB4 enter 1 to use the unadjusted 2000 exit poll as the basis for returning Gore and Bush voters
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AB6 Target Kerry's vote share: For example, enter '=AK6' to target the unadjusted exit poll provided in cell AK6.
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AB7 Living 2000 voter turnout in 2004 is set to to 98%.
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Incremental change in Kerry's share of
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AI2 New voters
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AI3 Gore voters
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AI4 Bush voters
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AI5 Other (third-party) voters
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KEY RESULTS
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Column W contains the change in Bush votes from 2000 to 2004
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Column X contains the change in Bush margin from 2000 to 2004
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Column AM contains the difference in margin between the True Vote and 2004 recorded vote. Again, this is just an approximation. We can never know the True Votes unless the ballots are hand counted. But the magnitude of the difference is a possible indicator of vote miscounts. In general, the probability of fraud increases as the difference in margin increases. But this is not always the case.
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