Joe and Li's Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Penn Estimates

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	J	K	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S
1					RAW DATA FROM NYT						CALCULATIONS
2	outstanding dem	outstanding rep			County	Margin	Nov. margin	Est. votes reported	Total votes	Absentee	remaining votes	perdue/ossoff	spread	dem %	mail in bump	total dem votes	total rep votes
3	14773	13846	totals from outstanding counties		Gilmer	Perdue +75	R+64.3	80%	11,878	6,283	2376	Perdue	75	12.5	0	296.95	2078.65
4	remaining dem %	51.62%			Bryan	Perdue +40	R+35.8	93%	17,076	12,034	1195	Perdue	40	30	0	358.596	836.724
5					Henry	Ossoff +23	D+19.8	94%	98,183	72,352	5891	Ossoff	23	61.5	0	3622.9527	2268.0273
6			projected total		DeKalb	Ossoff +67	D+64.4	97%	328,123	244,254	9844	Ossoff	67	83.5	0	8219.48115	1624.20885
7	Total Rep Vote	2,192,347	2,206,193		Chatham	Ossoff +18	D+17.4	98%	115,686	70,461	2314	Ossoff	18	59	0	1365.0948	948.6252
8	Total Dem Vote	2,208,717	2,223,490		Fulton	Ossoff +43	D+41.6	>98%	475,227	374,240	0	Ossoff	43	71.5	0	0	0
9					Gwinnett	Ossoff +20	D+16.2	>98%	363,871	266,931	0	Ossoff	20	60	0	0	0
10		diff %	0.7779%		Cobb	Ossoff +12	D+10.5	>98%	350,845	234,236	0	Ossoff	12	56	0	0	0
11		abs diff	17297		Cherokee	Perdue +41	R+41.4	>98%	127,649	76,945	0	Perdue	41	29.5	0	0	0
12	Mail in bump	0			Forsyth	Perdue +36	R+36.2	>98%	114,214	86,100	0	Perdue	36	32	0	0	0
13					Clayton	Ossoff +77	D+71	>98%	101,943	78,738	0	Ossoff	77	88.5	0	0	0
14					Hall	Perdue +45	R+44.9	>98%	78,645	52,944	0	Perdue	45	27.5	0	0	0
15					Richmond	Ossoff +39	D+34.6	>98%	75,957	53,293	0	Ossoff	39	69.5	0	0	0
16					Paulding	Perdue +27	R+29.2	>98%	73,829	52,997	0	Perdue	27	36.5	0	0	0
17		diff abs	winner?	reason	Columbia	Perdue +27	R+28.1	>98%	72,094	48,282	0	Perdue	27	36.5	0	0	0
18	8:28 PM	294,894	dem	init	Muscogee	Ossoff +25	D+21.8	>98%	71,249	54,667	0	Ossoff	25	62.5	0	0	0
19	8:54 PM	193,300	dem	new data	Coweta	Perdue +36	R+37.3	>98%	67,268	39,681	0	Perdue	36	32	0	0	0
20	10:00 PM	14590	dem	joe wanted to know	Houston	Perdue +11	R+14.1	>98%	66,275	47,175	0	Perdue	11	44.5	0	0	0
21	11:00 PM	58375	repub	joe actually wanted to know	Fayette	Perdue +9	R+9.7	>98%	65,556	48,866	0	Perdue	9	45.5	0	0	0
22	11:25	11102	dem	NYT corrected data	Bibb	Ossoff +25	D+21.8	>98%	63,134	42,024	0	Ossoff	25	62.5	0	0	0
23	12:00 AM	14643	dem	update	Douglas	Ossoff +29	D+24.5	>98%	62,075	48,307	0	Ossoff	29	64.5	0	0	0
24	12:21 AM	15,304	dem	update	Newton	Ossoff +15	D+10.8	>98%	48,751	32,615	0	Ossoff	15	57.5	0	0	0
25	12:43 AM	24,973	dem	update with rvling more votes to count	Carroll	Perdue +38	R+39.7	>98%	47,126	27,597	0	Perdue	38	31	0	0	0
26	12:45 AM	19,327	dem	manually changing vote remain to match CNN vote tallies left	Clarke	Ossoff +42	D+38.2	>98%	45,808	33,991	0	Ossoff	42	71	0	0	0
27	6:32 AM	17,297	dem	update	Walton	Perdue +49	R+49.8	>98%	45,443	30,042	0	Perdue	49	25.5	0	0	0
28					Bartow	Perdue +50	R+50.7	>98%	42,944	26,933	0	Perdue	50	25	0	0	0
29					Rockdale	Ossoff +45	D+40.5	>98%	40,146	31,078	0	Ossoff	45	72.5	0	0	0
30					Lowndes	Perdue +14	R+14.2	>98%	39,049	27,553	0	Perdue	14	43	0	0	0
31					Glynn	Perdue +25	R+25.6	>98%	37,383	27,931	0	Perdue	25	37.5	0	0	0
32					Floyd	Perdue +41	R+41.8	>98%	35,187	—	0	Perdue	41	29.5	0	0	0
33					Jackson	Perdue +58	R+58.6	>98%	32,568	22,207	0	Perdue	58	21	0	0	0
34					Barrow	Perdue +42	R+43.2	>98%	32,061	21,584	0	Perdue	42	29	0	0	0
35					Whitfield	Perdue +42	R+41.3	>98%	31,642	—	0	Perdue	42	29	0	0	0
36					Dougherty	Ossoff +41	D+37.9	>98%	30,762	18,732	0	Ossoff	41	70.5	0	0	0
37					Effingham	Perdue +49	R+48.5	>98%	27,808	16,415	0	Perdue	49	25.5	0	0	0
38					Catoosa	Perdue +57	R+55.8	>98%	27,747	—	0	Perdue	57	21.5	0	0	0
39					Spalding	Perdue +19	R+21.5	>98%	26,886	—	0	Perdue	19	40.5	0	0	0
40					Troup	Perdue +20	R+23.7	>98%	26,245	—	0	Perdue	20	40	0	0	0
41					Bulloch	Perdue +25	R+24.8	>98%	26,096	15,416	0	Perdue	25	37.5	0	0	0
42					Walker	Perdue +60	R+59.4	>98%	24,137	14,865	0	Perdue	60	20	0	0	0
43					Oconee	Perdue +38	R+38.4	>98%	23,537	17,843	0	Perdue	38	31	0	0	0
44					Gordon	Perdue +62	R+62.4	>98%	20,337	11,465	0	Perdue	62	19	0	0	0
45					Laurens	Perdue +27	R+29.7	>98%	20,209	11,604	0	Perdue	27	36.5	0	0	0
46					Camden	Perdue +31	R+32.2	>98%	19,841	12,635	0	Perdue	31	34.5	0	0	0
47					Thomas	Perdue +20	R+22.5	>98%	19,215	13,861	0	Perdue	20	40	0	0	0
48					Liberty	Ossoff +29	D+23.7	>98%	18,295	13,955	0	Ossoff	29	64.5	0	0	0
49					Harris	Perdue +45	R+45.8	>98%	18,274	10,441	0	Perdue	45	27.5	0	0	0
50					Habersham	Perdue +65	R+64.4	>98%	17,986	13,605	0	Perdue	65	17.5	0	0	0
51					Baldwin	Ossoff +4	R+0.5	>98%	16,440	12,174	0	Ossoff	4	52	0	0	0
52					Pickens	Perdue +66	R+65.9	>98%	15,149	7,691	0	Perdue	66	17	0	0	0
53					Lee	Perdue +43	R+44.9	>98%	14,881	9,431	0	Perdue	43	28.5	0	0	0
54					Polk	Perdue +56	R+56.5	>98%	14,752	10,187	0	Perdue	56	22	0	0	0
55					Tift	Perdue +34	R+36.4	>98%	14,388	9,615	0	Perdue	34	33	0	0	0
56					Dawson	Perdue +69	R+68.6	>98%	14,373	10,704	0	Perdue	69	15.5	0	0	0
57					Union	Perdue +64	R+63.8	>98%	14,178	9,863	0	Perdue	64	18	0	0	0
58					Monroe	Perdue +43	R+43.6	>98%	14,107	9,331	0	Perdue	43	28.5	0	0	0
59					Colquitt	Perdue +47	R+48.2	>98%	14,042	7,846	0	Perdue	47	26.5	0	0	0
60					Lumpkin	Perdue +59	R+58.7	>98%	13,694	10,300	0	Perdue	59	20.5	0	0	0
61					Fannin	Perdue +65	R+65.1	>98%	13,429	8,141	0	Perdue	65	17.5	0	0	0
62					Jones	Perdue +32	R+34.8	>98%	13,325	8,169	0	Perdue	32	34	0	0	0
63					White	Perdue +67	R+66.6	>98%	13,289	8,778	0	Perdue	67	16.5	0	0	0
64					Coffee	Perdue +39	R+41	>98%	13,191	8,674	0	Perdue	39	30.5	0	0	0
65					Madison	Perdue +54	R+52.9	>98%	13,166	8,210	0	Perdue	54	23	0	0	0
66					Murray	Perdue +69	R+67.3	>98%	12,988	7,551	0	Perdue	69	15.5	0	0	0
67					Haralson	Perdue +74	R+72.5	>98%	12,160	6,662	7000	Perdue	74	13	0	910	6090
68					Ware	Perdue +40	R+41.7	>98%	12,021	7,508	0	Perdue	40	30	0	0	0
69					Hart	Perdue +49	R+51.4	>98%	11,195	—	0	Perdue	49	25.5	0	0	0
70					Wayne	Perdue +56	R+56	>98%	11,192	6,883	0	Perdue	56	22	0	0	0
71					Upson	Perdue +31	R+35.7	>98%	11,173	7,927	0	Perdue	31	34.5	0	0	0
72					Sumter	Ossoff +6	D+3.1	>98%	11,061	8,007	0	Ossoff	6	53	0	0	0
73					Putnam	Perdue +42	R+42.3	>98%	10,830	8,086	0	Perdue	42	29	0	0	0
74					Morgan	Perdue +43	R+43.9	>98%	10,820	7,652	0	Perdue	43	28.5	0	0	0
75					Greene	Perdue +30	R+31.2	>98%	10,614	8,408	0	Perdue	30	35	0	0	0
76					Peach	Perdue +7	R+6.3	>98%	10,168	7,611	0	Perdue	7	46.5	0	0	0
77					Stephens	Perdue +59	R+60.9	>98%	10,037	—	0	Perdue	59	20.5	0	0	0
78					Decatur	Perdue +18	R+18.6	>98%	10,029	—	0	Perdue	18	41	0	0	0
79					Meriwether	Perdue +19	R+21.3	>98%	9,839	2,060	0	Perdue	19	40.5	0	0	0
80					Butts	Perdue +43	R+44.5	>98%	9,736	7,249	0	Perdue	43	28.5	0	0	0
81					Pike	Perdue +72	R+71.5	>98%	9,617	5,811	0	Perdue	72	14	0	0	0
82					Burke	Perdue +1.3	R+4	>98%	9,485	5,621	0	Perdue	13	43.5	0	0	0
83					Toombs	Perdue +47	R+45.9	>98%	9,382	6,506	0	Perdue	47	26.5	0	0	0
84					Grady	Perdue +34	R+33.1	>98%	9,317	5,873	0	Perdue	34	33	0	0	0
85					McDuffie	Perdue +19	R+21.5	>98%	9,230	6,958	0	Perdue	19	40.5	0	0	0
86					Franklin	Perdue +71	R+70.6	>98%	9,185	5,538	0	Perdue	71	14.5	0	0	0
87					Washington	Ossoff +2	R+1.6	>98%	8,522	5,614	0	Ossoff	2	51	0	0	0
88					Rabun	Perdue +57	R+58.8	>98%	8,405	6,798	0	Perdue	57	21.5	0	0	0
89					Emanuel	Perdue +39	R+40.5	>98%	8,348	4,699	0	Perdue	39	30.5	0	0	0
90					Worth	Perdue +46	R+47.8	>98%	8,264	4,524	0	Perdue	46	27	0	0	0
91					Chattooga	Perdue +59	R+59.3	>98%	8,227	4,938	0	Perdue	59	20.5	0	0	0
92					Elbert	Perdue +38	R+38.7	>98%	7,950	3,439	0	Perdue	38	31	0	0	0
93					Lamar	Perdue +40	R+41.9	>98%	7,935	4,748	0	Perdue	40	30	0	0	0
94					Pierce	Perdue +76	R+76.1	>98%	7,927	5,460	0	Perdue	76	12	0	0	0
95					Mitchell	Perdue +10	R+12.3	>98%	7,844	5,116	0	Perdue	10	45	0	0	0
96					Banks	Perdue +78	R+77.2	>98%	7,411	—	0	Perdue	78	11	0	0	0
97					Appling	Perdue +56	R+55.6	>98%	7,274	4,521	0	Perdue	56	22	0	0	0
98					Towns	Perdue +61	R+61.4	>98%	7,229	5,695	0	Perdue	61	19.5	0	0	0
99					Oglethorpe	Perdue +38	R+39.4	>98%	7,219	5,242	0	Perdue	38	31	0	0	0
100					Tattnall	Perdue +48	R+49.1	>98%	7,204	4,499	0	Perdue	48	26	0	0	0