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Reddit Post:
Peek-A-Boo! I see 30M hidden shorts coming due!
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https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oiemiu/peekaboo_i_see_30m_hidden_shorts_coming_due/
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Question: How many of the upcoming July 16 options expiring are worthless deep ITM puts used to kick cans down the road?
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Answer: At least 30M.
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Methodology
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In order to answer this question, we need to figure out which of the upcoming options were opened when they were worthless. As before, we can use |delta| < 0.01 (a penny) to judge an option as worthless.
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Once all of the July 16th expiring options are loaded into Sheets, I worked some magic. First, sort by the options name to cluster them together & then sort by ascending date. The results are in GME210716P sheet.
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Now we need to work some magic on the Open Interest change column. You only want to calculate the daily difference in Open Interest if the option is the same.
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As all the individual options are now clustered, you can just check the option name against previous row. If same, do a subtraction. If not, then it's a new option so set the "OI Change" to 0. (See "OI Change" column of GME210716P sheet.)
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Then we want to filter out just the options that have near-zero delta for each day. This is on the Daily sheet and we use a fancy SUMIFS equation.
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The SUMIFS equation basically adds the OI Change if the change was on a particular day and the delta meets our threshold for worthlessness.
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Now the Daily sheet shows how many worthless July 16 puts were opened and when! We can Chart that up and get a sum total. The Chart is pretty obvious on Chart sheet.
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The sum total of July 16 worthless puts opened is:
302,464
Worthless Put Options
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Which is equivalent to:30.2MShares
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Data
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Raw Data Source (CSV) from Historical Options Data
https://www.historicaloptiondata.com/
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Using "grep", you can extract out all the data for a single set of options expiring this July 16th (date code in option name is 210716 [YYMMDD]):
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grep GME210716P GME_2021.csv
<-- Extracts all Put options expiring 2021-07-16 for GME from the data set.
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Import the results into a Google Sheet and do some Sheets magic (see Methodology).
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