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This document contains the probabilities from the panel of forecasters we assembled.
The "Summary" tab includes each individual forecasted probability (columns C-J), then translated those into odds (K-R), then the geometric mean of the odds (T), and finall back into probabilities (U).
The 6 paid forecasters have been anonymised. The probabiltiies have been color formatted by row (green high, red low).

The other sheets include the "raw data" we received from the forecasters including their reasoning.

Due to a phrasing error, question 28 about "manhattan projects" was interpreted differently by forecasters. The question we originally posed was paired with a sub-bullet which posed the question in reverse. The orginal question was "In 2051, would cellular meat look harder in 2021 than the Manhattan project looked in 1942? and the sub-bullet was "In 2051, will a panel of Effective Altruism-trusted experts think that counterfactually, a cellular meat project started in 2021-2026 with $28 billion dollars & at least three Nobel Prize winning scientists would have resulted in technological breakthroughs that eventually directly led to >5% global meat displacement in 2051?."
Essentially, the question asked "will cultured meat be harder than the Manhattan project" but the sub-bullet asked "will a Manhattan style project be successful".During the forecasting process we updated the question to be aligned with the sub-bullet but some forecastors had already made predictions. We reached out to forecastors to clarify which version of the question they answered.


Question 25 on amino acids included reference material which listed transferrin and insulin in a table alongside amino acids. This may have incorrectly biased estimates since the former were much more expensive than the latter. The question also included recombinant proteins, which it should not have. Growth factors are various hormones, cytokines, vitamins, and some other proteins that promote cell growth; both Humbird and Specht refer to insulin, transferrin, FGF, and TGF-β as key expensive growth factors. Those four growth factors are all either peptides or proteins, which means they are composed of chains of amino acids. However, these growth factors serve a separate biological role than the "raw" amino acids (that is, individual amino acids, rather than chained together in a peptide or protein) also included in growth medium. "Recombinant" protein refers to a particular method of manufacturing proteins, so a particular protein can be created through the normal functioning of an organism or through genetic recombination. So in question 25, when we ask about "amino acids other than growth factors (inclusive of but not limited to [...] recombinant proteins)" "recombinant proteins" are categorically not amino acids (but that are made of amino acids) nor are they used biologically in the medium as a source of amino acids. We also list insulin and transferrin under both questions, adding to the confusion. A potential confusing or helpful series of analogies: "vegetable hydrolysate is to amino acids, as table salt is to sea salt" (basically similar but manufactured differently, with sea salt including a bunch of other non-salt things) and "recombinant proteins are to amino acids as table salt is to sodium and chlorine" (the composition is very different from its parts. Salt (sodium chloride) is very different from chlorine gas, but is composed of it.)


We also added "Edited questions are in red" to the instructions document.
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