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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
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Copyright © 2013 Dustin Small
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http://www.stockodo.com/dcf-discounted-cash-flow-analysis/
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Instructions
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1. Fill in the ticker symbol. This will populate some basic stock information.
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2. Enter the last year for which stock information is available. This will populate the other years.
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3. Work left to right, filling in blue fields.
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4. Look at historical percentages and use these to predict future rates.
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5. Choose a MARR and long term growth rate.
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6. Fill in cash & debt info from balance sheet to calculate intrinsic value.
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TickerCVX
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CompanyChevron Corporation
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Current price111.02
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Historical Year EndedProjected Year Ending
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20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022TV
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Revenue121,761155,300198,200210,118220,904273,005171,636204,928253,706241,909254,004266,705280,040291,242302,891315,007324,457334,191344,216354,543
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% growth rate27.54%27.62%6.01%5.13%23.59%-37.13%19.40%23.80%-4.65%5%5%5%4%4%4%3%3%3%3%
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- COGS80,707104,948140,902144,139151,564193,36199,653116,467149,923140,766147,323154,689162,423168,920175,677182,704188,185193,831199,646205,635
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% of revenue66.28%67.58%71.09%68.60%68.61%70.83%58.06%56.83%59.09%58.19%58%58%58%58%58%58%58%58%58%58%
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Gross Profit41,05450,35257,29865,97969,34079,64471,98388,461103,783101,143106,682112,016117,617122,321127,214132,303136,272140,360144,571148,908
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% of revenue33.72%32.42%28.91%31.40%31.39%29.17%41.94%43.17%40.91%41.81%42.00%42.00%42.00%42.00%42.00%42.00%42.00%42.00%42.00%42.00%
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R&D00000000000000000000
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% of revenue0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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SG&A4,4404,5574,8285,0935,9265,7564,5274,7674,74527,2946,3506,6687,0017,2817,5727,8758,1118,3558,6058,864
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% of revenue3.65%2.93%2.44%2.42%2.68%2.11%2.64%2.33%1.87%11.28%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%2.50%
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Other23,78125,24427,27328,91031,24752,79548,92832,45129,75527,51733,02134,67236,40537,86139,37640,95142,17943,44544,74846,091
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% of revenue19.53%16.25%13.76%13.76%14.15%19.34%28.51%15.84%11.73%11.37%13%13%13%13%13%13%13%13%13%13%
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- Total Opex28,22129,80132,10134,00337,17358,55153,45537,21834,50054,81139,37141,33943,40645,14246,94848,82650,29151,80053,35454,954
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% of revenue23.18%19.19%16.20%16.18%16.83%21.45%31.14%18.16%13.60%22.66%15.50%15.50%15.50%15.50%15.50%15.50%15.50%15.50%15.50%15.50%
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Operating Income (EBIT)12,83320,55125,19731,97632,16721,09318,52851,24369,28346,33267,31170,67774,21177,17980,26683,47785,98188,56191,21793,954
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% of revenue10.54%13.23%12.71%15.22%14.56%7.73%10.79%25.01%27.31%19.15%26.50%26.50%26.50%26.50%26.50%26.50%26.50%26.50%26.50%26.50%
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- Taxes5,3447,51711,09814,83813,47919,0267,96512,91920,62619,99628,27129,68431,16832,41533,71235,06036,11237,19538,31139,461
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% of EBIT41.64%36.58%44.04%46.40%41.90%90.20%42.99%25.21%29.77%43.16%42.00%42.00%42.00%42.00%42.00%42.00%42.00%42.00%42.00%42.00%
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NOPAT / EBIAT7,48913,03414,09917,13818,6882,06710,56338,32448,65726,33639,04040,99343,04244,76446,55448,41749,86951,36552,90654,493
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% of revenue6.15%8.39%7.11%8.16%8.46%0.76%6.15%18.70%19.18%10.89%15.37%15.37%15.37%15.37%15.37%15.37%15.37%15.37%15.37%15.37%
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+ D&A 5,3264,9355,9137,5068,7089,52812,11013,06312,91113,41312,70013,33514,00214,56215,14515,75016,22316,71017,21117,727
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% of revenue4.37%3.18%2.98%3.57%3.94%3.49%7.06%6.37%5.09%5.54%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%
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- Capex5,6256,3108,70113,81316,67819,66619,84319,61226,50030,93827,94029,33830,80432,03733,31834,65135,69036,76137,86439,000
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% of revenue4.62%4.06%4.39%6.57%7.55%7.20%11.56%9.57%10.45%12.79%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%
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Working Capital-951417-718-3,598-1,783-4,9002,2895,769-188-139-2,540-2,667-2,800-2,912-3,029-3,150-3,245-3,342-3,442-3,545
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% of revenue-0.78%0.27%-0.36%-1.71%-0.81%-1.79%1.33%2.82%-0.07%-0.06%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%
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- Change in WC1,368-1,135-2,8801,815-3,1177,1893,480-5,95749-2,401-127-133-112-116-121-95-97-100-103
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% of revenue0.00%0.88%-0.57%-1.37%0.82%-1.14%4.19%1.70%-2.35%0.02%-0.95%-0.05%-0.05%-0.04%-0.04%-0.04%-0.03%-0.03%-0.03%-0.03%
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Free Cash Flow7,19010,29112,44613,7118,903-4,954-4,35928,29541,0258,76226,20125,11726,37327,40128,49729,63730,49631,41132,35333,324381,374
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% of revenue5.91%6.63%6.28%6.53%4.03%-1.81%-2.54%13.81%16.17%3.62%10.32%9.42%9.42%9.41%9.41%9.41%9.40%9.40%9.40%9.40%
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PV of Free Cash FlowMARR12.00%LT Growth3.00%23,39420,02318,77217,41416,17015,01513,79512,68611,66710,729122,792
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Working Capital
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2003200420052006200720082009201020112012Enterprise Value282,458
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Current Assets19,42628,50334,33635,30439,37736,47037,21648,84153,23455,720+ Cash & Cash Equivalents21,647
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- Excess Cash4,2669,29110,04310,4937,3629,3478,71614,06019,82221,647+ Short-term Investments266
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- Current Liabilities16,11118,79525,01128,40933,79832,02326,21129,01233,60034,212+ Long-term marketable securities0
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- Short-term Debt127
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Working Capital-951417-718-3,598-1,783-4,9002,2895,769-188-139- Current portion of Long-term Debt0
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- Long-term Debt11,966
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- Book Value of Preferred Stock0
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- Book Value of Minority Interest1,308
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- Notes Payable0
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Equity Value290,970
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Common shares outstanding1,950(millions)
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Intrinsic Value per share$149.22
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Margin of Safety25%
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Buy Target$111.91
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Discounted Cash Flow