Vaccine Tracking - Herd Immunity Forecast

	A	B	C	D	E	F
1	COVID Vaccine Forecast
2		Millions	Fauci	Baker		Assumptions/Comments
3	US Population	328.2
4	Adults only (<16)	267.7				See Population tab
5	For herd immunity	214.1	80%	147.2	55%	See article about Dr. Fauci's Dec-2020 comments
6	Shots required per person	2.0		2.0
7	Total Vaccines needed	428.3		294.4
8
9		Batch 1 (mm)	Batch 2 (mm)
10	Vaccines orders - Trump Admin.	200				as of end-Dec
11	Vaccines orders - Biden Admin.		200.0			as of Jan. 26
12	Vaccines to order		28.3
13
14	UM Goal
15	Delivered by?	15-Jan-21	31-Mar-21			assume half of Dec/half of Jan
16	Herd immunity target date		31-Jul-21			for school to reopen for F2021
17	months	3	4.01	30.42		avg days/mo.
18	Vaccines per month needed	66.7	7.0
19	Per day	2.2
20
21	Biden's pledge
22	Administered	100				in first 100 days
23	Months	3.3
24	Per month	30.4
25	Per day	1.0
26	Months to hit herd immunity	7.0				assumes 2 shots per person-month
27	From inauguration		20-Jan-21
28	To Herd immunity implied date		22-Aug-21
29
30	Current Rate	Average Rate	30-day Avg	30-day Baker	Highest Rate
31	Average administered (daily)	1.44	0.85	0.85	4.63	See Actuals tab
32	Average Recovered (daily)	0.04			0.16
33	Total Immune	1.48			4.79
34	Number of days to herd immunity 1	298.4	501.8	345.0	92.5	excludes recoveries
35	Number of days to herd immunity 2	289.7			89.4	includes recoveries in vaccinations
36	Months	9.5			2.9
37	Forecast herd immunity date 1	14-Nov-21	5-Jun-22	31-Dec-21		excludes recoveries
38	Forecast herd immunity date 2	5-Nov-21				includes recoveries in vaccinations
39
40	Notes
41	1) Starting on inauguration day, the CDC appears to be updating their data each weekday at various times
42	2) On Jan. 23, I added a best case forecast based on the highest daily rate in the CDC data
43	3) The fitted trendline based on CDC data does not take into account that the vaccine rate will decline as we get closer to the goal. How best to represent an increasing difficulty factor (an assumption) and convert the trendline to a curve ?
44	4) On Feb. 18, I added recovered data into our forecast in blue. From the CTP project (Data for All States download table): https://covidtracking.com/data/download Recovery data only available from CTP thru Mar. 7, 2021.
45	5) We have not yet factored in the state, county and international numbers, which have different sources, but are available. We are looking at the composition of the student body with the potential to create a model that factors the data for home locations in addition to the destination location (Washtenaw)
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