Jirav's Simple Coronavirus / COVID-19 Model v1

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Y	Z	AA	AB
1	Update available! Click here for the latest version.
2	Today (add an "x" above the current interval)									x
3	Interval	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26
4	Days since start of model	0	7	14	21	28	35	42	49	56	63	70	77	84	91	98	105	112	119	126	133	140	147	154	161	168	175	182
5	Days from today	-56	-49	-42	-35	-28	-21	-14	-7	0	7	14	21	28	35	42	49	56	63	70	77	84	91	98	105	112	119	126

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8		About Jirav												How to use this spreadsheet
9		Jirav connects your financial and operational data to let you easily explore historical operations and accurately forecast your bookings, revenues, workforce, expenses and cash flows.												Change the values in the light green cells in column B to modify the assumptions. Move the "x" in the top row to reset the days counter to whatever interval you like. Add or remove "x" markers under Scenario 2 and Scenario 3 to change when the model switches over to the effective reproduction number ("R" AKA "Re").
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11	Visit Website
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13		⬇️⬇️	Change the assumptions in this column to update the forecast below.
14	Assumptions	Value	Description													Source(s)								URLs
15	Starting # of infected	1	The number of infected people at the start of the model
16	Serial interval (days)	7	Average time it takes for an infected person to transmit the disease.													Estimates for the median serial intervial range from 4-4.6 days, to 5-6, to 6.4 or 7.5								https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2
17																								https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9.pdf
18																								https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/
19																								https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30119-3/fulltext
20	Case fatality rate	1%	The risk that someone who develops symptoms will eventually die from the infection													Studies have estimated the death rate as high as 3.4% and as low as .7%								https://abcnews.go.com/Health/early-mortality-rates-covid-19-misleading-experts/story?id=69477312
21	Basic reproduction number (R0)	2.3	How many people a given patient is likely to infect without control measures. According to a paper published on PubMed.gov on February 22, the Maxium-Likelihood (ML) value of COVD-19 was 2.28 for the outbreak at the early stage on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. The median with 95% confidence interval (CI) of R0 values was 2.28 (2.06-2.52) estimated by the bootstrap resampling method.													Estimation of the reproductive number of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis.								https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32097725
22	Reproduction number (R)	1.5	Effective transmission rate with implementation of control measures. A model published in the Annals of Internal Medicine found that case counts as of February 3 were compatible with reduction of R to 1.5.													Reporting, Epidemic Growth, and Reproduction Numbers for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Epidemic								https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2760912/reporting-epidemic-growth-reproduction-numbers-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov
23	Reproduction number (R)	1.5														Reporting, epidemic growth, and reproduction numbers for the 2019-nCoV epidemic: understanding control								https://art-bd.shinyapps.io/nCov_control/
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25	Scenario 1: Uncontrolled spread
26	Reproductive rate	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30
27	Fatality rate	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
28	Infected	1	2	5	12	28	64	147	338	777	1,787	4,110	9,453	21,742	50,007	115,016	264,537	608,435	1,399,401	3,218,622	7,402,831	17,026,511	39,160,975	90,070,243	207,161,559	476,471,586	1,095,884,648	2,520,534,690
29	Total infected	1	3	8	20	48	112	259	597	1,374	3,161	7,271	16,724	38,466	88,473	203,489	468,026	1,076,461	2,475,862	5,694,484	13,097,315	30,123,826	69,284,801	159,355,044	366,516,603	842,988,189	1,938,872,837	4,459,407,527
30	New deaths			0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	8	18	41	95	217	500	1,150	2,645	6,084	13,994	32,186	74,028	170,265	391,610	900,702	2,071,616	4,764,716
31	Total deaths			0	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	13	31	72	167	384	884	2,034	4,679	10,763	24,757	56,943	130,971	301,236	692,846	1,593,548	3,665,164	8,429,880
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33	Scenario 2: With late implementation of controls															⬇️⬇️	Add or remove an "x" to each interval indicate when coronavirus controls have been implemented
34	Controls implemented (add an "x")															x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
36	Reproductive rate	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50
37	Fatality rate	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
38	Infected	1	2	5	12	28	64	147	338	777	1,787	4,110	9,453	21,742	50,007	75,011	112,517	168,776	253,164	379,746	569,619	854,429	1,281,644	1,922,466	2,883,699	4,325,549	6,488,324	9,732,486
39	Total infected	1	3	8	20	48	112	259	597	1,374	3,161	7,271	16,724	38,466	88,473	163,484	276,001	444,777	697,941	1,077,687	1,647,306	2,501,735	3,783,379	5,705,845	8,589,544	12,915,093	19,403,417	29,135,903
40	New deaths			0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	8	18	41	95	217	500	750	1,125	1,688	2,532	3,797	5,696	8,544	12,816	19,225	28,837	43,255
41	Total deaths			0	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	13	31	72	167	384	884	1,634	2,759	4,447	6,979	10,776	16,472	25,016	37,832	57,057	85,894	129,149
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43	Scenario 3: With early implementation of controls												⬇️⬇️	Add or remove an "x" to each interval indicate when coronavirus controls have been implemented
44	Controls implemented (add an "x")												x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
46	Reproductive rate	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	2.30	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50
47	Fatality rate	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
48	Infected	1	2	5	12	28	64	147	338	777	1,787	4,110	6,165	9,248	13,872	20,808	31,212	46,818	70,227	105,341	158,012	237,018	355,527	533,291	799,937	1,199,906	1,799,859	2,699,789
49	Total infected	1	3	8	20	48	112	259	597	1,374	3,161	7,271	13,436	22,684	36,556	57,364	88,576	135,394	205,621	310,962	468,974	705,992	1,061,519	1,594,810	2,394,747	3,594,653	5,394,512	8,094,301
50	New deaths			0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	8	18	41	62	92	139	208	312	468	702	1,053	1,580	2,370	3,555	5,333	7,999	11,999
51	Total deaths			0	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	13	31	72	134	226	365	573	885	1,353	2,055	3,108	4,688	7,058	10,613	15,946	23,945	35,944
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