ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
1
Apply to our Intrinsic Value Mastermind Community
2
Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI)
Valuation — One Page
3
Yield-based valuation + DCF cross-check. FX-haircut applied. Thesis is NOT multiple re-rating.
Built June 2026 | All inputs in yellow
4
5
Inputs & Drivers=Input Cells
6
=Calc / Output
7
Share price (USD)$82.00
8
FX rate (KZT per USD)490
9
Quarterly dividend (KZT/ADS)850
10
EPS 2026E (USD)$11.00
11
Annual tenge depreciation vs USD4.0%
12
Holding period (years)1.0
13
Annual dividend (USD/share)$6.94
14
Current dividend yield8.46%
15
Implied payout ratio63.1%
16
Current P/E (x)7.5x
17
Cumulative FX haircut factor0.960
18
19
20
Track 1 — The Floor: Yield Compression
21
Price if the market accepts a lower (fairer) yield on the same dividend.
22
23
Fair yieldImplied price (pre-FX)Implied price (post-FX)Price upsideDiv collectedTotal return (post-FX)
24
6.0%$115.65$111.0235.4%$6.9443.9%
25
7.0%$99.13$95.1616.0%$6.9424.5%
26
8.0%$86.73$83.271.5%$6.9410.0%
27
9.0%$77.10$74.01-9.7%$6.94-1.3%
28
10.0%$69.39$66.61-18.8%$6.94-10.3%
29
30
Green row = the yield I anchor to (7%, where it traded on this dividend in 2023-24). 10% row = do-nothing.
31
32
33
Fair Value Summary
34
Two independent methods. They should agree — that is the cross-check.
35
36
Method 1 — Yield (7% fair yield, post-FX)$95.16
37
 implied total return vs current price24.5%
38
Method 2 — DCF fair value (see DCF tab)$89.67
39
 DCF intrinsic w/ 20% margin of safety$71.74
40
41
Average fair value$92.42
42
Upside to average vs current price12.7%
43
44
What the market is pricing NOW
45
Current dividend yield (what the market demands)
8.46%
46
Current P/E (what the market pays)7.5x
47
48
Note: thesis underwrites the dividend + Kazakh monopoly. Any re-rating or Turkey upside is a free option, not in these numbers.
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100