NBN_Libs_Copper-v-Fibre_NPV
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Net Present Value of EXPENSES for Fibre to the Premises vs Fibre to the Node
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This is only HALF the equation, its ignores REVENUE differences. Profits = (Revenue - Expenses)
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Source: Background Papers, The Coalition’s Plan for Fast Broadband and an Affordable NBN.
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http://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/assets/Coalition_NBN_policy_-_Background_Paper.pdf
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pg 14: Is it really cheaper to build fibre to the premises now than later?
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Discount Rate: 8%
FTTN CapEx: $900, OpEx $90/year
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FTTP CapEx: $3600, OpEx: $60/year, 3yrs vs 10yrs FTTP CapEx: $2350, OpEx $30/year
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FTTPFTTN + FTTPDiffFTTPFTTN + FTTPDiffFTTPFTTN + FTTPDiffFTTPFTTN + FTTPDiffFTTN to FTTP upgrade cost
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NPV-$3,755-$3,633-$122-$4,114-$3,074-$1,040-$2,864-$2,495-$369-$2,607-$2,439-$167
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Year
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0-$3,600-$900-$3,600-$900-$2,350-$900-$2,350-$900-($3,600 - $450) - $90
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1-$60-$90-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90-$3,240
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2-$60-$90-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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3-$60-$3,240-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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4-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90-($2,350 - $450) - $90
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5-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90-$1,990
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6-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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7-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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8-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90Notes:
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9-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$901. Telstra Payments
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10-$60-$3,240-$60-$1,990-$30-$1,990est at $1500 (PSAA) by Coalition
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11-$60-$60-$60-$60-$30-$30a. $900 EXCLUDES leadin
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12-$60-$60-$60-$60-$30-$30b. $3600 INCLUDES leadin
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13-$60-$60-$60-$60-$30-$30c. $900 v $2100 w/o leadin
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14-$60-$60-$60-$60-$30-$30or $2400 v $3600 with leadin
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15-$60-$60-$60-$60-$30-$30
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2. Real FTTP Costs
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From NBN Co,19-Apr
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Discount Rate: 4.6%
FTTN CapEx: $900, OpEx $90/year
a. $1100 lead-in
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FTTP CapEx: $3600, OpEx: $60/year, 3yrs vs 10yrs FTTP CapEx: $2350, OpEx $30/yearb. $1100-$1400 Fibre ($1250)
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FTTPFTTN + FTTPDiffFTTPFTTN + FTTPDiffFTTPFTTN + FTTPFTTPFTTN + FTTPDiff
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NPV-$3,765-$3,899$135-$4,240-$3,785-$455-$2,990-$2,988-$2-$2,670-$2,904$2343. FTTP CapEx
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Yeara. $3600 = $2500 + $1100 leadin
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0-$3,600-$900-$3,600-$900-$2,350-$900-$2,350-$900b. $2350 = $1250 + $1100 leadin
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1-$60-$90-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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2-$60-$90-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$904. FTTP OpEx to CapEx ratio
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3-$60-$3,240-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90a. $60 claimed for $3600
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4-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90b. $30 is same ratio for $2350
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5-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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6-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$905. Discount Rate
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7-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90a. 8% ignores 2.5% inflation
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8-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90b. 4.6% is IRR of 7.1% - 2.5%
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9-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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10-$60-$3,240-$60-$1,990-$30-$1,990
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11-$60-$60-$60-$60-$30-$30
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12-$60-$60-$60-$60-$30-$30
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13-$60-$60-$60-$60-$30-$30
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14-$60-$60-$60-$60-$30-$30
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15-$60-$60-$60-$60-$30-$30
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Discount Rate: 8%
FTTN CapEx: $2400 ($900 + $1500), OpEx $90/year
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FTTP CapEx: $3600, OpEx: $60/year, 3yrs vs 10yrs FTTP CapEx: $2350, OpEx $30/year
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FTTPFTTN + FTTPDiffFTTPFTTN + FTTPDiffFTTPFTTN + FTTPFTTPFTTN + FTTPDiff
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NPV-$3,755-$5,133$1,378-$4,114-$4,574$460-$2,864-$3,995$1,131-$2,607-$3,939$1,333
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Year
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0-$3,600-$2,400-$3,600-$2,400-$2,350-$2,400-$2,350-$2,400
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1-$60-$90-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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2-$60-$90-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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3-$60-$3,240-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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4-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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5-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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6-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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7-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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8-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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9-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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10-$60-$3,240-$60-$1,990-$30-$1,990
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11-$60-$60-$60-$60-$30-$30
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12-$60-$60-$60-$60-$30-$30
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13-$60-$60-$60-$60-$30-$30
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14-$60-$60-$60-$60-$30-$30
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15-$60-$60-$60-$60-$30-$30
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Discount Rate: 4.6%
FTTN CapEx: $2400 ($900 + $1500), OpEx $90/year
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FTTP CapEx: $3600, OpEx: $60/year FTTP CapEx: $2350, OpEx $30/year
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FTTPFTTN + FTTPDiffFTTPFTTN + FTTPDiffFTTPFTTN + FTTPDiffFTTPFTTN + FTTPDiff
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NPV-$3,765-$5,399$1,635-$4,114-$4,574$460-$2,990-$4,488$1,498-$2,670-$4,404$1,734
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Year
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0-$3,600-$2,400-$3,600-$2,400-$2,350-$2,400-$2,350-$2,400
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1-$60-$90-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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2-$60-$90-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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3-$60-$3,240-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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4-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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5-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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6-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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7-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
90
8-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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9-$60-$90-$60-$90-$30-$90
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10-$60-$3,240-$60-$1,990-$30-$1,990
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11-$60-$60-$60-$60-$30-$30
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12-$60-$60-$60-$60-$30-$30
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13-$60-$60-$60-$60-$30-$30
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14-$60-$60-$60-$60-$30-$30
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15-$60-$60-$60-$60-$30-$30
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Cu-FO
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Upgr 10yr
Upgr 15yr
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