Facebook: Value and buy thresholds
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NameFacebook priceIntrinsic value estimateBuy threshold
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Aswath Damodaran8/20/2012$19.05$23.94$18.00
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Daniel Wagner8/20/2012$19.88$12.00$9.0075.19%
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Manik Patil8/20/2012$19.92$13.40$10.00Margin of Safety with cash (mostly from IPO) at 4.9/share.
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Francisco Lodeiro Amado8/20/2012$20.01$11.00$9.00http://enxebremarkets.blogspot.com.es/2012/06/facebook-segue-cara-tralas-caidas.html
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Gajanan Patil8/21/2012$20.01$28.38$20
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DD8/21/2012$20.01$12.00$10.00Employee lockup expiration on 14th Nov will create huge supply overhang. EPS of 60c 2012 makes it 20 P/E
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Hani Nash8/21/2012$20.10$17.00
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Ishfaque8/21/2012$20.01$24.62$14.00Share price is going to drop after Facebook declares operating losses next quarter, which is when I would want to buy
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P. Hallman8/21/2012$20.01$27.00$15.00I bought a small lot at 29, I plan to make a real investment if this goes to 15. The moat and the earning power seem to be the advantages here. The tails should be fatter on probability distribution of value, but was helpful.
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Jaime Bermúdez8/21/2012$19.70$25.00$16.50ok
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Bane Capital8/21/2012dd$16.08$13.67Splits valuation into two pieces: (1) today's predictable business at Google's PE, plus (2) an option on a bigger opportunity. That option would deliver incremental $X billion free cash flow annually, starting in 5 years, yielding Y years of competitive advantage. Assumes dilution to 3.0 billion shares outstanding in 5 years.Value of today's predictable business given Google's forward P/E of 14 times 2013 EPS of $0.638.82Option probability40%Discount rate and CAGR of incremental free cash flow:8%Incremental free cash flow per year (billions)10Years that competitive advantage yields incremental cash flow8Option value:7.26
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Bargain Hunter8/22/2012$19.44$10.00$8.25Lockup + social media hype about to face reality
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Srini8/22/2012$19.44$9.00$7.001. Lock up expirations .Stock declined 20% for lock up expiration of 200 Mil plus shares. More than 1.5 Billion plus shares should result in much bigger share drop. Moreover employees whose shares will be lockups expire in Nov, 2012 are more likely to cash out.Sales by Peter Thiel and Dustin Moskovitz so soon after lock up expiration indicates the flood of sales that can be expected from future lock up expirations.
2. Slow down in revenue growth in next quater results due to factors such as Zynga slowdown, switch to mobile etc. Operating loss expected due to more expenses as promised in last quarter. User growth expected to slowdown based on pattern seen in last three quaters.
3. Investors losing faith in social media due to failure of Groupon and Zynga very recently.
4. Expected fiscal cliff and Eurozone slowdown could have an impact on discretionary spending which could have impact impact on performance of Tech stocks in general.
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Anon8/24/2012$19.53$9.75$7.50Expect continuing quarterly misses in terms of revenue growth and net income. Will struggle to monetize mobile for an extended period of time.
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SZ8/24/2012$19.40$15.00$13.001. Corporate finance is an issue. 2 The business is tied more to the entertainment and election industry along with gaming. If corporates start tightening their belts it will affect some amount of cash flows but entertainment industry will still use it to propagate themselves. Also everytime there will be an election many parties are going to spend quite a bit on it. Similarly gaming industry will also have a say. 3. The stock will see some more fall because of investor reaction 4. Once uncle Ben starts his printing machine this stock can also soar along with everything else. A high risk individual may actually buy at current level for a tactical benefit.
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Nitesco Investments8/24/2012$19.41$14.00$11.001) corporate lockup expiry will create negative sentiment that will drive the stock lower (I don't like catching falling knives) 2) I don't like Zuck, I think he's immature, has a long way to go as a CEO, but is a visionary (I'll grant him that). 3) FB's a growth story. I don't like growth stories; as soon as growth rates slow everyones DCF changes, and the value falls. I don't see FB growing as fast as it has, sure, its got users, but as a FB user, they've gotten exactly $0 out of me, and will get a grand total of $0 out of me. 4) the fact that FB gets a big portion of their revenues from Zynga worries me, as I don't see Zynga going too far anytime soon.
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Kurt Sorschak 8/24/2012$19.41$16.00$13.00
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Yuan He8/28/2012$19.15$16.00$12.00Sell put at $12 get 5 - 8% return if it doesnt get as low or buys it at 30% below a conservative intrinsic value
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Daniel Ehrlich9/5/2012$18.64$21.00$17.00Sell put 17, buy call 18 sell call 23 with cero expense all of them to January 2013
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$16.68$12.17
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$16.51
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Edward Hall9/5/2012$17.75$30.00$18.00Really hard to value this one, thus would only commit a small amount over a long time horizon.
Valuation increase because of competitive position, the breadth of opportunitys that can come
about from what info they possess. Plus extra value for Mark Zuckerburg myself.
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Sathya9/5/2012$17.75$12.00$11.50Internet firms have pnly hype and much substance and facebook is no exception. value will fall exponentially with time
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Average10/9/2012$17.23$12.65
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Brian M10/16/2012$19.52$6.80$5.25Value is from cash and raw potential of 3600 talented employees.  While tremendous value can be imagined, it is created by and inextricably tied to an engaged user base.  This base may evaporate very quickly as users sense a diminished value proposition with timeline causing headaches and new, cooler experiences catching on with critical younger generations.   
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Nathan Ramos11/3/2012$21.18$23.02$20.72Contingent Valuation Model called the Facebook (FB) Option Valuation Model based on option open interest distributions. Download my model at the following link. Feedback is welcome. http://nathaneramos.com/yahoo_site_admin/assets/docs/FB_Option_Valuation.307203618.xlsx
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Patrick Curtis11/26/2012$25.94$13.50$12.00Even with major lockup getting absorbed, tough to see stock not retreating to high teens in next 2-3 months, especially as more lockups expire in Dec. In addition, I don't see how one can justify a valuation over $40bn unless $ per user starts to accelerate since user growth and ad revenue (even with mobile "fix) are decelerating fast
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$17.05$12.68
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$20.00
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