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NodeInitialuncertanty (factor?)thoughtsreferences
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Meat consumption world per capita 2016 (cattle, pork, poultry, eggs)6,4 ; 12,5 ; 13,5 ; 8-9kg
180 eggs per person worldwide, assuming weighing around <50g for the average egg.
https://data.oecd.org/agroutput/meat-consumption.htm http://www.wattagnet.com/articles/25047-global-egg-consumption-to-rise-worldwide-through-2024
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Developing countries GDP per capita (PPP) <4000$This is roughly the countries in which extreme poverty/living on less than 1.90 dollar per day is prevalent, the bottom billion.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
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Money moved by ACE 20163,5mio dollarsHard to separate out veg*n outreach, corporate campaigns (1, MfA)1) https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/mercy-for-animals/
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Lifestock CO2 emissionsMost by cattle.http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/197623/icode/
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Reported wellbeing5.5Cantril scale (0-10) according to Gallup poll. Detailed data is tricky to find. 13% they classify as suffering (rating themselves on a ladder now and in the future with 4 or less), 24% as thriving (at least rating on the latter now 7, later 8). Rest is rated as struggling. Roughly judging from that gives us a world average a bit over 6. Going with the median country they surveyed we have 5.2. http://www.gallup.com/poll/126965/gallup-global-wellbeing.aspx http://www.gallup.com/poll/153869/one-suffering-worldwide.aspx http://worldhappiness.report/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2015/04/WHR15-Apr29-update.pdf (Figure 2.2)
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CO2 emissions 2017-2050 (total CO2, not just Carbon)2200
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mil$ Far Future (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)4http://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/global-catastrophic-risks/global-catastrophic-risks#Who_else_is_working_on_this
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Mil$ Animal outreach2.75ACEs money moved in 2016
https://animalcharityevaluators.org/about/impact/giving-metrics/
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mil$ Far Future outreach (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)0.8Owen thought about 20% of total went on outreach
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mil$ GCR Research (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)3Owen thought about 75% of total went on outreach
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mil$ GCR Policy/Strategy (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)0.2Owen thought about 5% of total went on policy
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mil$ Cause Prioritization (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)
1Don't think CEA spends very much. Only counting FHI and CEAhttps://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/global-priorities-research/
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mil$ Outreach (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)
1.5Not counting givewell, a lot of CEA spending not outreachhttps://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/promoting-effective-altruism/#highly-neglected
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mil$ Animal Product alternatives (E)
1.5VeryGood food institute had budget of 2.5 mill in 2016, 1.2mill was openphil grant, say 1.5$ mill indsutry total?https://animalcharityevaluators.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/GFI-first-year-expenses-budget-doc-2016.pdf
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mil$ Goverment/Corporate Animal welfare reforms (E)
0.5775MFA spends 21% on corporate outreach and legal stuff [1], assume this si representative, then have 0.21*2.75=0.5775 millionhttp://www.mercyforanimals.org/financials
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mil$ Vegan outreach (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)$0.84
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