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NUMBERSDENOMINATIONSCOMMENTS
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10,000Wishlists on Steam launch.Starting point - tweak this number and all the other numbers will change.
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500Sales in Day 1.The idea is that 25% of Week 1 sales are done on Day 1 - based on the 'Week 1 is 2.5-4x Day 1' data I estimated recently.
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2,000Sales in Week 1. 0.2 sales per wishlist in Week 1. I think this might be aggressive for 2021, but it's the median in our survey: https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/steam-the-new-wishlists-to-first )
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19Average cost of gameTweak this number to change gross/net numbers below. (Take into account regional pricing.)
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38,000Gross on Steam in Week 1 Average cost of game x Sales in Week 1
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$22,230Net on Steam in Week 1 Gross x 58.5% to get net, gross to net includes Steam's cut, refunds, and taxes. (But not taxes in your own country.)
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$66,690Net on Steam in Year 1Modeling Year 1 = 3x Week 1 revenue. It's actually 4x in this survey - https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/data-deep-dive-whats-the-long-tail - but that's including games of all ages, and there's some evidence it's coming down a bit - it was 3.26x for games >$50k released in 2019 in there.)
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$54,559Net on console to end of Year 1If Steam is 55% of total revenue. (Difficult to predict: can range from a minority to a severe majority. Good strawman.)
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$121,249Net on Steam and console to end of Year 1.
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$122,265Net on Steam to end of Year 3Modeling Year 3 = 5.5x Week 1 revenue. Actually 6.69x in the survey, but again, I think newer medians will be down a bit due to more games on Steam.
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$100,025Net on console to end of Year 3If Steam is 55% of total revenue.
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$222,290Net on Steam and console to end of Year 3.
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(Please make a copy or download this spreadsheet if you want to edit it.)
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