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1 | STRIPE CBFS FORECAST MODEL — EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | Author: Anton Schneider | Role: EMEA Strategic Finance | Case: CBFS Take-Home | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | Active scenario: Base | Last actual month: 2020-01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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5 | TOP 10 TAKEAWAYS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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7 | 1 | Business is entering a maturity phase — 2018-2019 saw triple-digit monthly ramp; even Bull 2020-2024 assumes dramatically lower growth | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | From Jan 2018 to Dec 2019, the business nearly tripled: merchants went from 13 to 32 (+146%) and monthly GPV grew from $53m to $124m (+135%). Looking forward, Base 2019-2024 GPV CAGR is 27% and Bull is 41% — both meaningful but a step down from the 52% annual GPV growth seen in 2019. Even Bull merchant CAGR (+33%/yr) trails the historical +146% over 24 months. Implication: growth will increasingly come from same-store expansion and pricing rather than new-logo explosion, and the business needs to build competencies for the second act (custom pricing, retention, Platform GTM) while continuing to scale logo acquisition. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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10 | 2 | Revenue trajectory is highly driver-sensitive — 2024 Base ≈ $110m, with scenarios ranging Bear ≈ $56m to Bull ≈ $201m | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
11 | The ~3.6x Bear-to-Bull spread reflects realistic uncertainty around a 32-merchant starting base. Cumulative 2020-2024 revenue: Base ~$366m, Bear ~$228m, Bull ~$584m. Every 1pp change in Platform GPV growth moves 2024 revenue by ~$1.8m. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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13 | 3 | Platform logo additions are the single biggest revenue lever — 1 fewer Platform merchant/year = -$11m 2024 (-$29m cumulative 2020-2024) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
14 | Platform merchants generate ~$8m GPV/month each (vs ~$1m SaaS, ~$3m E-Commerce). The logo acquisition plan for Platform deserves the most attention in the sales motion. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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16 | 4 | Platform same-store expansion is the #2 lever — GPV/merchant growth +5pts (8% → 13%) = +$9m 2024 (+$21m cumulative 2020-2024) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | Platform merchants have the largest GPV base per logo, so even small same-store growth changes compound into material dollar impact. Focus on helping existing Platform merchants process more volume. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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19 | 5 | E-Commerce expansion is close behind — GPV/merchant growth +5pts (12% → 17%) = +$8m 2024 (+$19m cumulative 2020-2024) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | 4 E-Commerce merchants were added in 2019 with minimal GPV contribution that year. If they ramp to maturity at segment averages, the 2021-22 upside is material — monitor cohort ramp curves closely. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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22 | 6 | E-Commerce logo additions are material — 1 fewer E-Commerce merchant/year = -$5m 2024 (-$14m cumulative 2020-2024) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
23 | E-Commerce merchant economics are middle-of-the-road but meaningful at scale. Prioritize this segment after Platform in sales investment. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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25 | 7 | Churn is a material but secondary lever — +100bps churn across all segments (2% → 3%) = -$4m 2024 (-$9m cumulative 2020-2024) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
26 | Modest absolute $ impact because the merchant base is still small. But as the base grows, retention becomes a material pricing-power signal. Recurring Billing retention particularly important given pricing room. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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28 | 8 | SaaS expansion is lower-impact but high-margin — GPV/merchant growth +5pts (15% → 20%) = +$3m 2024 (+$7m cumulative 2020-2024) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
29 | SaaS has the highest GM % driven by add-on fee for Recurring aka 'Billing'. Migration towards that higher priced product increases SaaS GM % over time. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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31 | 9 | Faster new-merchant ramp compounds meaningfully — 12→6 month ramp = +$1m 2024 (+$7m cumulative 2020-2024) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
32 | New cohorts take time to materialize at full run-rate. Halving ramp time through better onboarding, self-serve activation, or starter packages is the only "free money" lever — no pricing or sales headcount cost. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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34 | 10 | Take rate drift is a lever worth watching — ±10bps/yr drift = ±$2m 2024 (±$5m cumulative 2020-2024) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
35 | For a 32-merchant base, 10bps on $1.3B+ GPV outpaces logo churn impact. This justifies investment in custom-pricing negotiation capability — especially for Platform where take rate is lowest. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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38 | SENSITIVITY TABLE — ranked by |cumulative 2020-2024 Δ| | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
39 | All perturbations evaluated vs Base case (~$110m 2024 / ~$366m cumulative 2020-24 revenue) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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41 | # | Perturbation | 2024 Δ ($m) | Cum 2020-24 Δ ($m) | Driver category | |||||||||||||||||||||
42 | 1 | 1 fewer Platform merchant added per year | -$11.2m | -$29.2m | Logo growth | |||||||||||||||||||||
43 | 2 | 1 more Platform merchant added per year | +$11.2m | +$29.2m | Logo growth | |||||||||||||||||||||
44 | 3 | Platform GPV/merchant growth +5pts (8% → 13%) | +$8.9m | +$21.2m | Same-store expansion | |||||||||||||||||||||
45 | 4 | E-Commerce GPV/merchant growth +5pts (12% → 17%) | +$8.5m | +$18.8m | Same-store expansion | |||||||||||||||||||||
46 | 5 | 1 fewer E-Commerce merchant added per year | -$5.3m | -$13.6m | Logo growth | |||||||||||||||||||||
47 | 6 | 1 more E-Commerce merchant added per year | +$5.3m | +$13.6m | Logo growth | |||||||||||||||||||||
48 | 7 | Churn +100bps across all segments (2% → 3%) | -$3.9m | -$8.9m | Retention | |||||||||||||||||||||
49 | 8 | SaaS GPV/merchant growth +5pts (15% → 20%) | +$3.3m | +$7.2m | Same-store expansion | |||||||||||||||||||||
50 | 9 | New merchant ramp faster (12 → 6 months) | +$1.4m | +$6.9m | GTM / activation | |||||||||||||||||||||
51 | 10 | 1 fewer SaaS merchant added per year | -$2.6m | -$6.5m | Logo growth | |||||||||||||||||||||
52 | 11 | 1 more SaaS merchant added per year | +$2.6m | +$6.5m | Logo growth | |||||||||||||||||||||
53 | 12 | Take rate drift -10bps/yr (vs flat) | -$2.2m | -$4.9m | Pricing — take rate | |||||||||||||||||||||
54 | 13 | Take rate drift +10bps/yr (vs flat) | +$2.2m | +$4.9m | Pricing — take rate | |||||||||||||||||||||
55 | 14 | Billing fee +40bps (0.8% → 1.2%) | +$1.0m | +$3.0m | Pricing — add-on | |||||||||||||||||||||
56 | 15 | Churn +10bps across all segments (+0.1%) | -$0.4m | -$0.9m | Retention | |||||||||||||||||||||
57 | 16 | Platform per-active-account fee +$1 ($4 → $5) | +$0.2m | +$0.9m | Pricing — add-on | |||||||||||||||||||||
58 | 17 | Radar attach +10pts (30% → 40%) | +$0.0m | +$0.0m | Pricing — add-on | |||||||||||||||||||||
59 | Recurring migration rate +1.5pts (1.5% → 3.0%/month, Bull pace) | +0.6 | +1.6 | SaaS — migration | ||||||||||||||||||||||
60 | Recurring migration rate -1.0pts (1.5% → 0.5%/month, Bear pace) | -0.7 | -1.6 | SaaS — migration | ||||||||||||||||||||||
61 | Base case: ~$110m 2024 revenue, ~$366m cumulative 2020-24. All perturbations evaluated independently (no interaction effects). | New SaaS merchant Recurring sell-in mix +20pts (50% → 70%) | +0.3 | +0.9 | SaaS — migration | |||||||||||||||||||||
62 | Note: Numbers are illustrative anchors calibrated to Base. For exact scenario values, change Assumptions!C7 and observe Forecast Years Overview. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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65 | SUPPORTING TABLES & CHARTS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
66 | Data refreshes when scenario (Assumptions!C7) or last-actual (Current Year Overview!B2) changes | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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68 | TABLE 1 — Revenue by segment ($m) — referenced in takeaways #3-6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
69 | Segment | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||
70 | SaaS | $1.0m | $2.7m | $4.1m | $6.8m | $9.8m | $13.3m | $17.3m | ||||||||||||||||||
71 | E-Commerce Store | $4.0m | $9.3m | $12.4m | $18.3m | $25.4m | $33.0m | $41.3m | ||||||||||||||||||
72 | Platform | $15.3m | $19.6m | $22.6m | $29.0m | $36.0m | $43.3m | $51.1m | ||||||||||||||||||
73 | Total | $20.2m | $31.6m | $39.2m | $54.1m | $71.2m | $89.6m | $109.8m | ||||||||||||||||||
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93 | TABLE 2 — GPV/merchant by segment ($m, annual) — referenced in takeaways #4, #5, #8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
94 | Segment | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||
95 | SaaS | $4.8m | $9.7m | $10.0m | $11.9m | $13.7m | $15.3m | $17.0m | ||||||||||||||||||
96 | E-Commerce Store | $17.1m | $29.8m | $28.0m | $31.5m | $34.9m | $38.2m | $41.4m | ||||||||||||||||||
97 | Platform | $75.0m | $95.3m | $91.2m | $98.3m | $105.8m | $112.9m | $119.9m | ||||||||||||||||||
98 | Total — all segments | $32.7m | $41.9m | $37.6m | $39.8m | $42.4m | $45.1m | $47.9m | ||||||||||||||||||
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