Cost of Civil War

	A	B	C	D	G
1	Entry	Inputs	Sources	Notes	Color Code
2	LIC Per Capita Income	1045	This is the upper limit of the definition of a LIC, per the WB. Seems like a plausible average GDP/capita for a country that might experience war.		Empirical Measurement
3	US GDP/capita	50000			Calculated Number
4	Weight on consumption (calculated pre-war)	47.84688995			Est. from Literature
5	Average LIC growth in peace (%)	2	Eyeballing https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=XM		My estimate - can be changed
6	Average annual loss of GDP/capita w/ war (%)	4.1	https://dornsife.usc.edu/assets/sites/818/docs/Seminar_Series_papers/Smith_Cost_of_CW_October_31_2014.pdf	I am extremely uncertain about this number.	OP number
7	Average population affected	24137931.03	This is just the total population of LICS/number of LICs to give a population for a hypothetical "average" country.		Calculated number from another BOTEC
8	DALYs lost/year 2017	11080000	https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/burden-of-disease-by-cause?country=~OWID_WRL
9	Number of civil wars 2017	49	From PRIO: https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Dupuy%2C%20Rustad-%20Trends%20in%20Armed%20Conflict%2C%201946%E2%80%932017%2C%20Conflict%20Trends%205-2018.pdf
10	Average length of civil war	4	Actually 4.5 but I didn't want to compound GDP/capita loss for half a year
11	Undercount of civil conflict DALYs	4	Let's say only 1/4 of DALYs caused by civil war are on the battlefield?
12	% of "Conflict and Terrorism" DALYs From Civil War	0.75	Fudge factor b/c "conflict and terrorism" includes things that aren't civil war
13	Value of DALY	100000
14
15	Value of DALYs lost 2017	3.32E+12
16	DALYs lost/war 2017	6.78E+05
17	Total DALYs lost/war	2.71E+06
18	DALYs/population	1.12E-01
19	Value of DALYs lost/war	2.71E+11
20
21	Counterfactual income lost due to war / person	7.96E+02
22	OP valuation of that income	3.81E+04
23	Total foregone income due to war (country)	1.92E+10
24	Total OP value for all country residents	9.20E+11
25	World income loss due to war in 2017	2.35E+11	This is a little bit hacky, in that income loss continue post war, I've just... jammed all the losses into the war period.
26	Total OP value of income loss / year	1.13E+13
27
28	% of cost from DALYs	29.51%
29
30	Total OP cost of one civil war	$1,190,912,038,806.30
31	Total OP cost / person / year of war	$49,337.78
32	% of a DALY burden on every resident of country w/ civil war / year	0.12
33	% of a DALY burden on SSA resident due to malaria / year	0.3844271638
34
35	Population of Liberia	5050000
36	Value of preventing a year of war in Liberia	$249,155,811,547.40
37	Population of Ethiopia	115000000
38	Value of preventing a year of war in Ethiopia	$5,673,845,213,455.74
39
40	Budget for Humanitarian Dialogue	42000000
41	Humanitarian Dialogue Countries	23
42	Budget Per Country	1826086.957
43	Prob Needed For ROI for 1000x Return	6.13E-03
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