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1: Transit Priority | Ridership Increase Total = 12.35 million
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ASSUMPTIONS:
- Transit priority measures will increase weekday ridership by an average of 5% on bus routes and 8% on streetcar routes (King Pilot increased ridership by 16%)
- Annual ridership calculated by multiplying average weekday ridership by calculated annualization factor (312)
- Transit priority will be implemented on all major streetcar routes (excluding routes with existing ROWs): 501 Queen, 506 Carlton, 505 Dundas, 511 Bathurst)
- Transit priority will be implemented on the 20 busiest bus routes (excluding those that already have scheduled rapid transit projects): 52 Lawrence, 29 Dufferin, 54 Lawrence East, 60 Steeles West, 95 York Mills, 35 Jane, 60 Steeles West, 95 York Mills, 199 Finch Rocket, 24 Victoria Park, 53 Steeles East, 102 Markham Rd., 7 Bathurst, 165 Weston Rd. N, 25 Don Mills, 85 Sheppard East, 41 Keele, 39 Finch East, 63 Ossington, 45 Kipling, 116 Morningside, 96 Wilson)
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Bus Weekday Ridership & New Ridership | Source = December 2016 TTC https://portal0.cf.opendata.inter.sandbox-toronto.ca/dataset/ttc-ridership-all-day-weekday-for-surface-routes/
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Route #Route NameDaily RidershipEstimated new ridership w/ Transit Priority
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52Lawrence West43,8822,194
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29Dufferin42,6322,132
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54Lawrence East36,7201,836
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35Jane32,4791,624
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60Steeles West32,1721,609
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95York Mills31,5581,578
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199Finch Rocket31,1181,556
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24Victoria Park28,5241,426
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53Steeles East28,2781,414
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102Markham Rd.26,4351,322
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7Bathurst26,2511,313
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165Weston Rd. North26,0711,304
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25Don Mills25,8891,294
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85Sheppard East24,8711,244
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41Keele24,4171,221
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39Finch East23,7451,187
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63Ossington23,3651,168
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45Kipling19,619981
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116Morningside19,506975
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96Wilson19,325966
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Total Ridership Increase28,343
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Annual Streetcar Ridership Increase = Total Ridership Increase x Annualization Factor (312)8,842,969
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Streetcar Weekday Ridership & New Ridership | Source = December 2016 TTC https://portal0.cf.opendata.inter.sandbox-toronto.ca/dataset/ttc-ridership-all-day-weekday-for-surface-routes/
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Route #Route NameRidershipEstimated new ridership w/ Transit Priority
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501Queen550694,406
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505Dundas324102,593
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506Carlton389843,119
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511Bathurst214331,715
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Total Ridership Increase11,832
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Annual Streetcar Ridership Increase = Total Ridership Increase x Annualization Factor (312)3,691,484
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2: Service Increase | Ridership Increase Total = 10.65 million
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TTC 2003 Ridership Growth Strategy Service Recommendations
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Service ImprovementEstimated new ridership
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Improve peak service by 10%2,840,000
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Improve off-peak service on major routes2,280,000
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Full service on all routes: 6am - 1am2,880,000
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Max 20-minutes or better service on all routes2,730,000
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Total Ridership Increase10,730,000
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3: Lower Fares | Ridership Increase Total = 6.27 million
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Assumptions:
- Fare Elasticity is -0.1 (historical TTC average is -0.1 to -0.2)
- Ridership by fare media based on 2018 revenue rides
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METROPASS TRIP MULTIPLIER ADJUSTMENT
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2018 Monthly Pass Rides227,959,000
Source: TTC Ridership Analysis https://portal0.cf.opendata.inter.sandbox-toronto.ca/dataset/ttc-ridership-analysis/
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Current trip multiplier45
Source: CodeRedTO Mixed Signals Report https://coderedto.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/CodeRedTO_MixedSignals.pdf
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Proposed trip multiplier37.5
Source: CodeRedTO Mixed Signals Report https://coderedto.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/CodeRedTO_MixedSignals.pdf
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Fare reduction proposed16.67%
Calculated = 1 - proposed multiplier / current trip multiplier
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Estimated Annual Ridership Increase3,799,317
Calculated = 2018 Monthly Pass Rides x Fare Reduction Proposed x Fare Elasticity (-0.1 for loss)
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SINGLE FARE 10% COST REDUCTION
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2018 Single Fare Rides247,377,000
Source: TTC Ridership Analysis https://portal0.cf.opendata.inter.sandbox-toronto.ca/dataset/ttc-ridership-analysis/
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Single Fare Proposed Reduction10%
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Estimated Annual Ridership Increase2,473,770
Calculated = 2018 Monthly Pass Rides x Fare Reduction Proposed x Fare Elasticity (-0.1 for loss)
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4: Fair Integration | Ridership Increase Total = 1.99 million
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Assumptions:
- Fare Elasticity is -0.2 (historical TTC average is -0.1 to -0.2)
- Approximately 63,000 transfers per day b/w TTC & 905 Agencies
- TTC Annualization factor of 312
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Regional Fare Cost 2018/2019 | Source: municipal transit agency websites
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Single Fare905-TTC Trip
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Brampton$3.00$6.10
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Burlington$2.70$5.80
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Durham$3.15$6.25
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Hamilton$2.40$5.50
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Mississauga$3.00$6.10
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Oakville$3.10$6.20
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York Region$3.75$6.85
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Toronto$3.10n/a
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Average 905-TTC Trip Cost$6.11
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Average Cost with 2-Hour Transfer
$3.03
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Proposed Fare Reduction50.53%
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Daily 905-TTC Ridership63,000
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Estimated Annual Ridership Increase1,986,266
Calculated = Daily 905-TTC Ridership x Annualization Factor (312) x Proposed Fare Reduction x Fare Elasticity (0.2)
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5: Rapid Transit Expansion | Ridership Increase Total = 15.4 million
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Assumptions:
- Ridership numbers based on most recent planning reports for projects
- TTC Annualization factor of 312
- Existing bus ridership transfers to LRT
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ProjectExisting Bus RidershipAnnual Bus RidershipExpected Ridership Growth (daily)Estimated Annual Ridership Increase
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Eglinton East LRT - Option 239,90412,450,0481000312,000
Source: City of Toronto Eglinton East LRT Update https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2019/ex/bgrd/backgroundfile-131528.pdf
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Sheppard East LRT28,2058,800,00024,6797,700,000
Source: TTC Transit City Light-Rail Plan https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2008/pg/bgrd/backgroundfile-9473.pdf
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Relief Line N-S-30,4009,484,800
Source: City of Toronto Relief Line Business Case https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2016/ex/bgrd/backgroundfile-94624.pdf
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TOTAL68,10921,250,04856,07917,496,800
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